Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction Colorado
1042 PM MDT Monday may 20 2013
Short term...(this evening through Tuesday night)
issued at 245 PM MDT Monday may 20 2013
Forecast area impacted by northern plains closed low as energy dives
southward across the western slope today. The short wave energy has
weakened but numerous convective showers have formed in the moist
air mass...becoming less numerous farther west in eastern Utah.
Influence from the northern plain closed lows diminishes
tonight...therefore much of the convective showers this afternoon
will decrease overnight. Isolated snow showers may linger toward
the northern Divide mountains overnight...but much of the forecast area
will be dry by midnight.
The main westerlies take hold on Tuesday and advecting drier air
into western Colorado. Expect to be some isolated diurnal driven
showers and storms Tuesday afternoon...primarily limited to the
mountain ridges. These pulse type showers or storms will drift
southeast but weaken as they roll off the higher terrain. With more
sun and warm advection aloft...expect recovering temperatures by several
degrees. By Tuesday night...any showers will have dissipated around
sunset with clearing skies overnight.
Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 245 PM MDT Monday may 20 2013
Models are consistent on the increase of southwest winds Wednesday
afternoon as low pressure over the Pacific northwest interacts with ridge
in place. Winds will increase over eastern Utah Wednesday afternoon
and gradually increase to western Colorado late Wednesday night and continue
throughout the remainder of the week. Showers are not expected
Wednesday through Friday except a slight chance in high elevations
of central mountains
Models show some lifting available Saturday afternoon/evening...though
moisture appears to only be available at high altitudes suggesting
some cirrus clouds and little potential for precipitation.
&&
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1042 PM MDT Monday may 20 2013
Expect VFR conditions across the region through 18z Tuesday...though
a few light showers will linger north of the I-70 corridor through
09z. From 18z to 03z...isolated showers and thunderstorms will
develop over the mountains producing strong gusty outflow winds
and localized brief mountain obscuration. Kege and kase will be in
the vicinity of showers...otherwise expect VFR conditions across
the remainder of the region through 06z Wednesday.
&&
Fire weather...
issued at 245 PM MDT Monday may 20 2013
Numerous showers will continue through tonight. Ridge shifts eastward
into the area pulling very dry and warm air in from the southwest
beginning tomorrow. Will need to keep an eye out for potential critical
fire conditions in eastern Utah and western Colorado by the second half of
the work week into the weekend as southwest winds increase and
very low humidity persists.
&&
Gjt watches/warnings/advisories...
Colorado...none.
Utah...none.
&&
$$
Short term...pf
long term...jam
aviation...no layers
