Tropical Storm Watches Up in The Bahamas and Turks and Caicos for TS Emily

By: BahaHurican , 10:24 PM GMT on Αύγουστος 02, 2011

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5:08 p.m. EDT

At 5 p.m. today, the Bahamian government posted watches for the Southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Island in advance of the arrival there on Thursday of Tropical Storm Emily. Emily, the 5th named storm of the 2011 season, is currently located near latitude 15.8°N and longitude 65.4°W or about 185 miles south of San Juan, Puerto Rico. This position is also about 600 miles southeast of Providenciales and Inagua. Emily is expected to move generally west-northwest and northwest over the next two to three days, crossing the island of Hispaniola and transversing Bahamian waters before moving northward into the wider Atlantic Ocean.



Emily had a rough birth; as Invest 91L the system was characterized by a broad area of surface low pressure and numerous ill-defined low- and mid-level centres forming, disippating, and reforming. However, at 7:30 p.m. on Monday 1st August the National Hurricane Centre was able to locate a relatively well-defined centre and Emily was named.

Despite this rather disorganized structure, Tropical Storm Emily brought gusty winds and heavy rainfall to Dominica, Martinique, and other Eastern Caribbean islands for more than 12 hours on 1st and 2nd August. This resulted in widespread flooding and numerous landslides in these islands. Reports from StormCarib.com suggest that at least one person died due to the flooding in Martinique.

This squally weather has since spread to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Since organization has improved somewhat in the last 12 hours, residents in the Dominican Republic and Haiti will likely expect more of the same during Wednesday and into Thursday of this week.

Emily's projected track takes the storm [or what's left of it after crossing the rugged Hispaniola landscape] up the length of the archipelago. In fact, the Bahamas has been in Emily's sights, so to speak, even before it was formally named. This is because there is a large and persistent Azores High to the northeast of us that has helped to maintain a similarly persistent ridge of high pressure across the sub-tropical Atlantic, across our area and at times even across Florida. However, this week a trough or area of low pressure will be pushing this high back towards the east, making a path of sorts around the edge of the ridge for Emily to follow.

The high pressure ridge in retreat on Friday, with TS Emily passing along its western edge.

While the exact track Emily takes is still somewhat uncertain, we can expect that most, if not all, of the Bahamas will experience some impact from the tropical storm.

What is of greater interest to most of us is the potential strength, or intensity, of Emily as she passes through our waters. Two factors are creating a great deal of uncertainty about the state Emily will be in by Friday morning.

First, TS Emily is still a very disorganized system. While it has improved in appearance and organisation since last night, it still is being disrupted by moderate shear and quite a bit of dry air in its environment. NHC officials are not expecting it to strengthen very much before it crosses Hispaniola on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Emily at 5:15 p.m. on Tuesday, 2nd August 2011

Second, Emily's passage across the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola is likely to create some disruption to the storm's already tenuous circulation. Certainly on the forecast track Emily would find it difficult to strengthen while crossing the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

Map of Hispaniola, with the areas in tan, grey and white representing higher elevations.

However, once whatever is left of Emily crosses into Bahamian waters, the system will find conditions which are somewhat more conducive to restructuring than it met previously in the Caribbean. Sea surface temperatures are at their highest for the season; mid and low level shear is expected to be lower than seen in the Caribbean. Additionally, while rounding the ridge Emily may not move as quickly has she is expected to move tomorrow. Therefore there are still a lot of variables which may yet influence what Bahamians and Turks Islanders experience from Emily later this week.

Emily is expected to emerge into waters south of Inagua, Mayaguana and Providenciales on Thursday afternoon as a tropical depression. Some reorganization of the system is expected as it moves northwest over the archipelago on Thursday night, Friday, and into Saturday. Currently the NHC forecast does not call for sufficient strengthening to bring Emily up to hurricane force before departing our waters. However, the forecast models used by NHC still show varying scenarios ranging from complete dissipation to a category two hurricane near New Providence. This means that we should expect tropical storm conditions to impact our islands, but also insure that we are prepared to cope with hurricane conditions if they eventuate. This is particularly true in the Northwestern Bahamas, where any hurricane impacts would be most likely to occur.

Residents in the Southeast and Central Bahamas, along with the Turks and Caicos, will likely experience any impacts on Thursday night into Friday. These are expected to spread into the Northwestern Bahamas on Friday.


I'll continue updates regarding the progress of Emily in the comments section below.

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15. BahaHurican
04:59 AM GMT on Αύγουστος 06, 2011
Yeah, it'ts been sullen and windy alternately here today; by 5 pm somewhat cooler than it has been all week. Right now it's setting up to storm. My buddy thrawst, if he lives up east, may be in the thick of it already. He was mentioning lightning on the main blog...
Member Since: Οκτώβριος 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20743
14. CaicosRetiredSailor
10:54 PM GMT on Αύγουστος 05, 2011
We did have squally weather last night, light winds and overcast all today.
It appears that EmilyRemnants are stiring up near Andros and you may be in for a stormy night, good luck.
Member Since: Ιούλιος 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
13. CaicosRetiredSailor
12:01 AM GMT on Αύγουστος 05, 2011


This is like a bad movie!


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM EMILY ARE LOCATED OVER
HISPANIOLA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS AT
10 TO 15 MPH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE BY SATURDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: Ιούλιος 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
12. CaicosRetiredSailor
07:52 PM GMT on Αύγουστος 04, 2011
Quote from Jeff's blog comments:

Quoting Skyepony:
Doesn't appear that the mid & lower level layers of Emily are going to cross in the same place or time.
.... Midlevel circulation coming across near the DR/Haiti line.
.... trying to cross Haiti. If it holds together or reforms more east under the Midlevel circulation after it crosses make a big difference
.... I think Emily will survive the crossing of Hispaniola.





Thoughts of possibilities like this
are unsettling for us in the Turks and Caicos!
-----------

and then you pointed out that a mid level regeneration happened after Jeanne crossed
Hispaniola....
Member Since: Ιούλιος 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
11. CaicosRetiredSailor
05:23 PM GMT on Αύγουστος 04, 2011
Slow meandering TS Emily's center now appears to have passed Longitude 072 W which is good for us in TCI. In most cases it gives us in TCI a small measure of relief when a storm passes West of 72 or North of 22.
Member Since: Ιούλιος 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
10. Thrawst
02:18 AM GMT on Αύγουστος 04, 2011
Link

New blog. Lemme know what you think of this as you are a Bahamian as well. :-)
Member Since: Ιούλιος 18, 2010 Posts: 50 Comments: 1737
9. BahaHurican
11:16 PM GMT on Αύγουστος 03, 2011
@ CRS, I noticed that just now.... will need to fix that tonight.

This latest development, with the storm travelling over a relatively smaller portion of Hispaniola, might not be so good for us. IIRC, that's the track that allows for a hurricane by the time it is in the NW Bahamas. And given that it seems very likely whatever we get will pass so we're on the dirty side, well, that's not happy-making....
Member Since: Οκτώβριος 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20743
8. CaicosRetiredSailor
04:05 PM GMT on Αύγουστος 03, 2011
As of 11am forecast and Emily's disorganized state, things look much better for TCI, but we will keep watching.

...ps

I notice that the forecast cone chart above in your blog updates, perhaps if you wish for these to form a record of "what was" you may want to post a static copy of the graphic.
Member Since: Ιούλιος 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
7. BahaHurican
03:40 AM GMT on Αύγουστος 03, 2011
Quoting Thrawst:


Right here brother! Lol... I did post a blog earlier but it seemed to go unnoticed.. :(
I thought you said u'd do one, but never heard anymore about it after that.... will go check it out right away....

Member Since: Οκτώβριος 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20743
6. Thrawst
03:37 AM GMT on Αύγουστος 03, 2011
Quoting BahaHurican:
YW. I'm hoping some of the other Bahamian bloggers will put information up as the storm progresses.


Right here brother! Lol... I did post a blog earlier but it seemed to go unnoticed.. :(
Member Since: Ιούλιος 18, 2010 Posts: 50 Comments: 1737
5. BahaHurican
12:29 AM GMT on Αύγουστος 03, 2011
Quoting MrstormX:
Thanks for these local reports, I will watch as you post.
YW. I'm hoping some of the other Bahamian bloggers will put information up as the storm progresses.
Member Since: Οκτώβριος 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20743
4. BahaHurican
12:28 AM GMT on Αύγουστος 03, 2011
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Evening Baha,

I like seeing the "D" nearest to me, on the forecast track after Emily crosses Hispaniola...
I hope that is correct, and it does make sense, for it to weaken to a depression status.

CRS
Yah, have to admit that "D" was pretty heartening.... would be nice if it did a "Jeanne" and just heads due N from there [Without the loop-de-loop, of course].
Member Since: Οκτώβριος 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20743
3. CaicosRetiredSailor
11:32 PM GMT on Αύγουστος 02, 2011
Evening Baha,

I like seeing the "D" nearest to me, on the forecast track after Emily crosses Hispaniola...
I hope that is correct, and it does make sense, for it to weaken to a depression status.

CRS
Member Since: Ιούλιος 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
2. MrstormX
11:28 PM GMT on Αύγουστος 02, 2011
Thanks for these local reports, I will watch as you post.
Member Since: Μάιος 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4355
1. BahaHurican
11:22 PM GMT on Αύγουστος 02, 2011
Update #1

7:15 p.m. EDT Tuesday 2nd August.

According to ZNS News reports, residents in Inagua are taking news of the approach of Tropical Storm Emily seriously. The main settlement there, Matthew Town, is still recovering from the impacts of major Hurricane Ike in 2008. An emergency preparedness meeting involving government officials and community leaders was held this afternoon, and two hurricane shelters have been established in the event that flooding or storm surge forces evacuations from the mostly coastal dwellings of residents.


Map of Inagua with Matthew Town in SW.
Member Since: Οκτώβριος 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20743

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During the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, this blog will focus on tropical systems that impact The Bahamas and Turks & Caicos Islands.

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