Civicane49's WunderBlog

Tropical disturbances in the East Pacific; potential development in the Caribbean

Posted by: Civicane49, 02:33 AM GMT on Μάιος 25, 2013

There are two tropical disturbances in the eastern Pacific today. One is Invest 91E located several hundred miles south of the Pacific coast of Mexico. The other one is the low pressure system located roughly 150 miles southwest of the coast of Costa Rica. This should be tagged as “Invest 92E” soon. Both of these systems are producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms on the latest satellite imagery. While two systems remain poorly-organized, I believe that the Costa Rica disturbance will stand a better chance of becoming the second tropical storm of the season.

Forecast for the Pacific disturbances
91E is not expected to organize significantly as it would continue to interact with the monsoon trough. I give this system a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. The system should move slowly in weak steering currents. The Costa Rica disturbance should continue to organize gradually in the next several days as it is expected to remain in favorable environmental conditions. It should become a tropical cyclone by Tuesday or so, and I give this disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. The system is predicted to move westward and then move west-northwestward as it will be steered along the southern periphery of the high pressure ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. The system would then move northward to the Mexican coast as the trough will amplify over the western United States by four or five days. The disturbance would bring a threat for heavy rains and strong winds for parts of the Mexican coast by next week.

Figure 1. Evening infrared satellite image of Invest 91E and the tropical disturbance near Costa Rica. Image credit: Mauna Kea Weather Center (MKWC).

Possible development in the western Caribbean on early June
The GFS as well as its ensembles are continuing to show a large area of low pressure developing over the northwestern Caribbean in few days after hurricane season starts in the Atlantic, which is June 1. The upward Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) pulse is currently in the eastern Pacific and should move into the western Atlantic soon and would remain in that area until early June. The upward MJO pulse will help enhance convection across much of the western Atlantic. In addition, shear is forecast to decrease gradually across the Caribbean by early June, allowing development to occur. The models are depicting this system to move northward and affect the western Caribbean islands and the southeastern United States, especially Florida. Although high uncertainty remains for tropical cyclone formation, development is still not out of the question yet.

Civicane49

Categories:Hurricane

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Invest 91E remains disorganized in the Pacific

Posted by: Civicane49, 12:41 PM GMT on Μάιος 24, 2013

An area of low pressure (Invest 91E) centered about 550 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico remains disorganized. Shower and thunderstorm activity remains very limited and disorganized as seen on satellite imagery. The latest ASCAT pass revealed an ill-defined low-level center, which is exposed on satellite images. Although water temperatures and upper-level winds remain favorable for development, the system’s interaction with the monsoon trough would disrup...

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Alvin weakening, may become post-tropical cyclone sooner than expected

Posted by: Civicane49, 04:43 AM GMT on Μάιος 17, 2013

East Pacific’s Tropical Storm Alvin is weakening. The combination of strong west-southwesterly shear and interaction of the monsoon trough has disrupted the cyclone from organizing further. The latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory stated that Alvin is barely a tropical storm with winds of 40 mph and central pressure of 1006 mb. Satellite images depict a poorly organized tropical storm with a disorganized cloud pattern. Satellite imagery also shows a cy...

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First East Pacific Invest (90E) has a potential to develop

Posted by: Civicane49, 04:54 AM GMT on Μάιος 14, 2013

The first invest of the year in the eastern Pacific is here and has a chance to become the first tropical depression of the East Pacific hurricane season, which the official start will be on this Wednesday. Earlier today, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has designated an area of low pressure in the far eastern Pacific; the NHC tagged it as “Invest 90E”. (For those unfamiliar with the term “Invest”, the information can be found on the Hurricane FAQ). Sate...

Categories:Hurricane

Updated: 05:03 AM GMT on Μάιος 14, 2013

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Cold front approaching Hawaii, expected to bring wet weather

Posted by: Civicane49, 11:17 AM GMT on Ιανουάριος 27, 2013

Calm, dry weather should end for some of the main Hawaiian Islands later today as the cold front will creep in and move down the island chain, bringing the threat for locally heavy rain and thunderstorms. Satellite imagery shows a cold front associated with a robust storm system located northwest of Hawaii. The approaching front should reach the islands of Niihau and Kauai by the next several hours. In fact, the radar data depicts areas of moderate to heavy rain loc...

Categories:Severe Weather Flood Hawaii

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