Atlantic and Pacific Tropical Weather Tracking
The 2013 Hurricane Season : What to expect for the Upcoming Season
Posted by: HurricaneDean07, 03:40 AM GMT on Μάιος 31, 2013 +8
Its May 31st. This marks us being only a day away from the kick off to the 2013 North Atlantic Hurricane Season!

The 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Starts June 1st and ends November 30th, marking when most tropical cyclones form in this basin, though they can form prior to or after the season.

This time only a year ago, we had already seen 2 named storms in this basin, which lead us to having the 3rd straight year of 19 Named Storms (2010, 2011, and 2012) which marked those 3 years tied as the 3rd busiest season along with 1995 and 1887.




Figure 1. Atlantic Hurricane Season summaries for the 2010, 2011, and 2012 seasons.

The Upcoming Week
Though there is the possibility for our first named storm on the horizon, the models have been all over the place with this outlook, and have flip-flopped from one idea to another. The only thing that has stayed consistent thus far is the likelihood of a Low developing over the Northwest Caribbean or Southern Gulf of Mexico Mid-Late Next Week. We will have to monitor the situation closely given that the models haven't been much help.
The Probability of a Tropical Cyclone forming from this situation is around 40% or a Moderate Chance.


Figure 2. Outlook for the first week of June, courtesy of Levi Cowan's TropicalTidbits.com

Back to the main focus of this blog: What to Expect.
Outlook scale = Very Poor, Poor, Fair, Great.

Atmospheric Conditions
The upcoming season is pretty ripe when it comes to the conditions storms will have to face this year. Unlike the past seasons, atmospheric conditions are primed and look to be headed for a close-to-perfect setup. Dry air and the Lack of Instability in the Tropics has subsided, and Wind Shear will begin to decrease as the Sub-Tropical Jet lifts away. Trade winds also look like they will be less of a problem compared to previous seasons.

Outlook for storms = Fair

Sea Surface Temperatures
Though it has struggled lately, the MDR or Main Development Region is warm and ready to support a Tropical Cyclones, along with the MDR the Atlantic Tripole has remained positive meaning the warmth has been able to focus down toward the tropics unlike a Negative Atlantic Tripole where the warmth is focused in the Subtropics. This should allow more storms to form in the tropics which also means they will most likely live longer and have a higher chance of becoming hurricanes and major hurricanes.

Outlook for storms = Great


Figure 3. Western Hemisphere SST Anomalies for May 30, 2013. An Example of a Cool Neutral and Positive Atlantic Tripole.


Figure 4. Western Hemisphere SST Anomalies for May 31, 2012. An Example of a warm Neutral and a Negative Atlantic Tripole.

El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Outlook
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation or ENSO has 3 phases. El Nino, Neutral, or La Nina. These phases are measured by the anomalies in the Equatorial Pacific Water from the coast of South America to south of Hawaii. Currently this region has been in a cool trend with Sea Surface Anomalies between .5 to 1 degrees Celsius below average in the Nino 1+2 Regions and Nino 3 Region. This area, along with the trade winds and convective patterns, is in a Cool Neutral Bias (Leaning toward a La Nina phase) which allow Atlantic Hurricane Seasons to get busy and stay busy. The forecast for the ENSO is for the cool neutral bias to stay put or warm slightly to a evenly-biased neutral through this Summer. This means that there will be no El Nino to cripple the Atlantic season from being a bustling active season like the 3 previous seasons.

Outlook for Storms = Great


Figure 5. Current Map of Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies from Levi Cowan's TropicalTidbits.com ; Note the cool tongue of water extending from the South American coast.

The Rundown
Basically, the season is poised to be an active and dangerous season with many long tracking deep tropical systems forming in the MDR. With increased height anomalies along with cooler SST's in the subtropics to create a more divergent/higher pressure aloft, many of these system that form will become landfalling storms. This said, a sharply increased risk of Major Hurricane Landfalls along the Gulf and Southeast coasts of the US are expected.


Figure 6. Geopotential Height anomalies that show where pressure are higher or lower than normal.

There is little doubt that this season may break our drought of having a Major Hurricane hit the US coastline, but even if there isn't one. Make sure you're prepared. Make a plan, be ready. This season might just be a doozy.

Official Numbers
18 Named Storms
11 Hurricanes
5 Major Hurricanes
160-210 ACE

Thanks for reading. Happy Hurricane Season! :)
Categories:Hurricane
Updated: 10:54 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 01, 2013   Permalink | A A A
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2013 Hurricane Season : April Outlook
Posted by: HurricaneDean07, 01:33 AM GMT on Απρίλιος 09, 2013 +8
We are less than 2 months away from the kickoff of the 2013 North Atlantic Hurricane Season. With that said, its about time for me to post my tweaked and reanalyzed outlook on what the Hurricane Season may bring this year.


Figure 1. A satellite view of Major Hurricane Sandy over Cuba on October 25, 2012.

~~~~Factors and Predictions~~~~

Climate Pattern (El Nino or La Nina?)
Though some may say that the climate pattern is to...
Categories:Hurricane
Updated: 07:12 PM GMT on Απρίλιος 18, 2013   Permalink | A A A
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2013 Hurricane Season ; Another Active Season to Come?
Posted by: HurricaneDean07, 03:31 AM GMT on Φεβρουάριος 07, 2013 +13
2013 Hurricane Season Outlook
Hey Everyone! Its been awhile since ive been on the blog, making entries and such, Just wanted to post up a quick blog about the 2013 season in my eyes.

The 2013 season appears to be primed and set to be another above average season as the El Nino event that was forecasted to persist through Spring has withered away and has been replaced by a cold neutral. The season is Still uncertain on Track, but some good ideas towar...
Updated: 12:02 AM GMT on Μάιος 13, 2013   Permalink | A A A
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Ernesto strengthening; Florence forms
Posted by: HurricaneDean07, 12:29 AM GMT on Αύγουστος 05, 2012 +1
ERNESTOTropical storm Ernesto has continued to organize and slowly strengthen through-out the day, though currently is obviously not statistically strong, with the NHC stating Ernesto has 60 mph sustained winds...Though he is statistically not as strong, he still has the capability of becoming a hurricane within the next 24 hours.Recon; Hurricane Hunters are going to head into the storm later tonight, and might find a stronger Ernesto than earlier (The HH were findi...
Categories:Hurricane
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Atlantic Basin ready for Take-off.
Posted by: HurricaneDean07, 11:15 PM GMT on Ιούλιος 24, 2012 +4
IntroAfter almost a month of pure quiet in the Atlantic Basin, it appears we might begin to pick up in actvity throughout the next two weeks.Current Atlantic TropicsA non-tropical frontal low located East-Northeast of Bermuda has began to become less frontal and more Tropical in-nature. The low has continued to organize throughout the day and was tagged "Invest 98L". Though it has waned in convective intensity lately, due to Diurnal Minimum, it was given a 40% chanc...
Categories:Hurricane
Updated: 11:23 PM GMT on Ιούλιος 24, 2012   Permalink | A A A
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I got an interest from weather sitting in the living room watching the weather channel with my Grandpa, I've been hooked to tracking storms ever since

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