The destruction of Gilchrist, Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 02:55 PM GMT on Σεπτέμβριος 17, 2008

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We're in day three of my promised 7-10 day lull in Atlantic hurricane activity. That prediction is still looking good. There are no threat areas to discuss today, and the earliest any model foresees a tropical storm developing is Sunday, when the NOGAPS indicates something developing in the western Caribbean. The GFS model predicts this development will occur on the other side of Central America, in the Eastern Pacific. The GFS also predicts development of a tropical depression by Tuesday off the coast of Africa.

The destruction of Gilchrist
Many of you have probably seen the photo of Gilchrist, Texas showing complete destruction of the town of 750 people, save for one lone home. High-resolution satellite imagery made available by NOAA's National Geodetic Survey (Figure 1) confirm that of the approximately 1000 structures existing in the town before Hurricane Ike, only about five survived the hurricane. Approximately 200 of these buildings were homes, and it is thought that some of the residents attempted to ride out the storm in their homes. According to media reports, about 34 survivors from Gilchrist and the neighboring communities of Crystal Beach and Port Bolivar have been fished out of Galveston Bay in the past few days. Rescuers who have reached Gilchrist have not been able to find any victims in the debris because there is no debris. Ike's storm surge knocked 99.5% of the 1,000 buildings in Gilchrist off their foundations and either demolished them or washed them miles inland into the swamplands behind Gilchrist. Until search teams can locate the debris of what was once was Gilchrist, we will not know the fate of those who may have stayed behind to ride out the storm.



Figure 1. The town of Gilchrist, Texas before and after Hurricane Ike. Image credit (top): Googlemaps.com, DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, Houston-Galveston Area Council. Bottom: National Geodetic Survey.

Why did Gilchrist get destroyed?
It's rare to see a town so completely destroyed by a hurricane, to the point where you can't even see the wreckage. The neighboring towns of Crystal Beach, to the south, and High Island, to the north, were also mostly destroyed, but weren't swept clean of nearly all structures and wreckage. This is because Gilchrist was built in an unusually vulnerable place. It's bad enough to situate your town on a low-lying peninsula, as was the case for Crystal Beach. But in Gilchrist's case, the town was located at the narrowest point of the Bolivar Peninsula, at a point where it was only a few hundred meters wide (Figure 2). Not only did Gilchrist suffer a head-on assault by Ike's direct storm surge of 14+ feet, topped by 20' high battering waves, the town also suffered a reverse surge once the hurricane had passed. As Ike moved to the north, the counter-clockwise flow of wind around the storm pushed Galveston Bay's waters back across the town of Gilchrist from northwest to southeast. This second surge of water likely finished off anything the main storm surge had left.

Will Gilchrist be rebuilt?
I hope the government will see fit to buy up the land that was once the town of Gilchrist and make it into a park. Building a town in Gilchrist's location makes as much sense as building a town on the sides of an active volcano. (Unfortunately, there are plenty of people who have done just that, such as on the slopes of Mt. Vesuvius in Italy). If past history is any guide, Gilchrist will be rebuilt, and it will take another mighty hurricane to permanently take down the town. That was the case for the town of Indianola, Texas, which lay in a vulnerable low-lying location on the shores of Matagorda Bay in the mid-1800's. Indianola was the second largest port in the state of Texas, and home to 5,000 people. In 1875, a powerful Category 3 hurricane piled up a huge storm surge as it came ashore in Indianola. The surge destroyed 3/4 of the town's 2,000 buildings, and killed 176 people. The city was rebuilt, but in 1886, a devastating Category 4 hurricane swept almost the entire town of Indianola into Matagorda Bay, killing another 250 townspeople. The people of Indianola finally gave up and moved elsewhere, and the ruins of their town now lie under four feet of water in Matagorda Bay.


Figure 2. The Bolivar Peninsula, Texas before Hurricane Ike. The "A" pink balloon marker shows the location of Crystal Beach. Gilchrist is to the northeast of Crystal Beach, at a point where the peninsula narrows down to just a few hundred meters wide. Image credit: Googlemaps.com, TerraMetrica, LeadDog Consulting, Tele Atlas.

Links to follow
High-resolution photos of the Bolivar Peninsula are available using Microsoft's HD View Beta.

How you can help
For those of you who want to help those in need, I'm proud to say that a group of wunderground members are spearheading their own Hurricane Ike relief effort, aimed at providing assistance and supplies to people that are not in the mainstream relief areas. They've already raised $5000, and the first relief truck with supplies is on the way to Texas. Deductions are tax-deductible, and can be made in several ways:

Patrap's wunderblog
www.stormjunkie.com
www.portlight.org

Everything they are doing is at the specific request of people on the scene. At the request of the Director of Disability Affairs for the Mayor of Houston, they are sending 50 wheelchairs, 500 walkers, 200 pairs of crutches, and several pallets of first aid supplies. They are also sending a 16-foot truck from Charleston loaded with drinks, personal hygiene products, and non perishable food items. A truck is heading out of New Orleans with similar supplies. Every Catholic school in South Carolina is collecting supplies with the goal of filling two more trucks.

Of course, contributing to the Red Cross or your local church is another great way to help out. Thanks!

Jeff Masters

San Leon,Texas Devastated by Hurricane Ike pt.3 (txcuda)
Images taken in San Leon,Texas along Bayshore Dr.and Ave A 1/2 Tuesday afternoon. The devastation caused by Hurricane Ike is something that will take this community years to recover from. Relief crews from both the National Guard as well as the Red Cross were seen this afternoon. Quite a few residents will find that they no longer have a home when they return. Those that rode the storm out along the bayshore are fortunate to be still with us as there have been quite a few fatalities in just this small community.Electricity is weeks if not months off...and water service will be a week or more before it can be restored. Crews were out this afternoon shutting off service to meters that had no home any longer. The mosquitos are out in clouds but at least
San Leon,Texas Devastated by Hurricane Ike pt.3
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212. TampaSpin
3:01 PM EDT on September 17, 2008
207. seflagamma 2:57 PM EDT on September 17, 2008
Quoting Orcasystems:


I had to promise another one (BeachFoxx) that I would not post anything that shows in the GOM.. she doesn't want to know.




So Foxx and I both are on your case about not wanting to know about those possible new systems LOL ROFLMAO!!!

We promise we will only hit you with our lipstick tube! LOL


Opps i was about to post a loop.......i might get hit with a loop...LMAO
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211. ctweathergal
7:00 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Quoting Michfan:
Link

Amazing pictures.


Your link didn't work for me. Could be cause I'm on a mac, but just wanted to let you know.

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210. seflagamma
3:00 PM AST on September 17, 2008
roflmao... Foxx and I had lunch together when she was down this way.. she is a doll! we wouldn't hurt you too badly LOL


really, I would rather know for real what is going on so I can prepare... and so would she!
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209. Michfan
1:59 PM CDT on September 17, 2008
Link

Amazing pictures.
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208. Orcasystems
6:58 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Quoting seflagamma:



So Foxx and I both are on your case about not wanting to know about those possible new systems LOL ROFLMAO!!!

We promise we will only hit you with our lipstick tube! LOL

Geee.. what a change of events.. first you complain we won't talk or tell the truth.. then when we do.. you give us heck
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207. seflagamma
2:56 PM AST on September 17, 2008
Quoting Orcasystems:


I had to promise another one (BeachFoxx) that I would not post anything that shows in the GOM.. she doesn't want to know.



So Foxx and I both are on your case about not wanting to know about those possible new systems LOL ROFLMAO!!!

We promise we will only hit you with our lipstick tube! LOL
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205. IMA
1:55 PM CDT on September 17, 2008
honkytonk & TEXASYANKEE43 So glad y'all are o.k., but sorry you're dealing with the aftermath :( Wish I could mail you some ice. I could send some great spongy earplugs, though :)

Orca? Someone threatened to ban you?? Wow, that's harsh! I only threatened to use the ignore button :)
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204. WhereIsTheStorm
6:53 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Quoting riblet2000:

You're welcome. Over on my side of the state (Naples) Wilma came in just under category 4 so we slowed the wind down for you folks to the east. It was not fun, and it's eerie to see a high-rise building peeled like a banana. Luckily that one wasn't mine.

But your point about no publicity = no storm as far as most of the country is concerned is very valid.


Wilma hit Naples? I never saw that on the news. But Thanks for slowing it down a little for us. Within three days all you saw were blue tarps everywhere.
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203. SETXgirl
1:40 PM CDT on September 17, 2008
Back from our trip to the Port Arthur area. The trip down I10 to Beaumont was sobering, you can see where the highway was under water. Can't go down the Winnie road (73) into Pt Arthur, they say it is covered with cattle, alive and dead. No power anywhere, but it is slowly getting restored in Beaumont. No prayer in Pt Arthur or Midcounty where I am from. Saw the refineries bringing temporary housing in for their workers, they are up and running, and are housing the families at fancy hotels in Houston. The damage is far far less than Rita, just signage and fencing (we lost fence). As you get closer to Winnie which is on the way to Bolivar it gets much worse. Baytown looks awful. Houston has gas lines an hour long, and in Pt Arthur they looked longer. I think the gas lines are getting a bit better though in Houston. People in the smaller towns, Fannett, Bridge City, Orange, lost everything from flooding. Where I am, Nederland was like an island. No problems other than power and water/sewer. It saddens me to see the pictures of Crystal and Gilcrist. We drove down 87 to the ferry often. We have moved in with a relative in Houston who has power. Here's to a quiet remainder of the season!
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202. TropicTraveler
6:47 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Quoting BeanTech:
Looking at the pictures of Crystal Beach and Gilchrist, one has to ask why those areas were developed as heavily as they were. The beach and waves were literally just steps away from their houses. Anyone with any common sense would have to know that none of those homes stood a chance when a significant storm came along. I guess they were ok with that gamble though.

As for the government buying the land...I don't see that happening (though I think it is a great idea). It would be politics as usual and the potential lost property taxes would sway them in the direction of allowing rebuilding.

I wonder what land it is that they would buy? The land is gone, just erosion channels left in the sand of the new beach. A lot of the land is now under the surf.
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201. Orcasystems
6:49 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Quoting NEwxguy:


LOL,people a little gun shy on here?


I had to promise another one (BeachFoxx) that I would not post anything that shows in the GOM.. she doesn't want to know.
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200. BRMoon
6:49 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
The news coming out of Texas is indeed heartbreaking. We in Louisiana feel the pain from first hand experience. I was just reading the Houston Chronicle online and was very upset to read the comments at the end of the article on Chertoff and various news items. Many of the comments are just bashing the New Orleans evacuees still in Houston. I was born in Texas and have lived in Louisiana for 65 years and am embarrassed of my birthplace. I have not heard anything negative said in Louisiana about all the Texas evacuees in our state and hope I do not. It seems that everythng that goes wrong in Texas is always Louisiana's fault.
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199. NEwxguy
2:48 PM EDT on September 17, 2008
Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFLMAO, someone (she will remain unnamed) threatened to ban me if I keep showing things like that :)


LOL,people a little gun shy on here?
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198. tkeith
1:48 PM CDT on September 17, 2008
..lol..OK
Member Since: Νοέμβριος 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8937
197. seflagamma
2:47 PM AST on September 17, 2008
Quoting tkeith:
184 seflagamma: That is one of the most inspiring things to me that pat,press, sj etc. are doing. going to to where the need IS and the spotlight AINT... those guys have their heads and their hearts in the right place...


I like that also...those are the places that need it the most.

and by the way, please call me "Gams or Gamma" my handle is way too long!
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196. Orcasystems
6:45 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Quoting seflagamma:
Orca.. I would rather not know about those things! LOL but thanks for posting them anyway.. for some reason i was hoping the season was over (just kidding I know it is no where near over for 2008)


ROFLMAO, someone (she will remain unnamed) threatened to ban me if I keep showing things like that :)
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195. riblet2000
6:45 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Quoting seflagamma:
they watched TV and TWC and saw "only a Cat2" an no real damage...
HECK what was it, over 600,000 people in S FLA without power for over a week, some for 2 weeks and some for over a month..couldn't get down the roads because of falling trees?

You're welcome. Over on my side of the state (Naples) Wilma came in just under category 4 so we slowed the wind down for you folks to the east. It was not fun, and it's eerie to see a high-rise building peeled like a banana. Luckily that one wasn't mine.

But your point about no publicity = no storm as far as most of the country is concerned is very valid.
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194. seflagamma
2:43 PM AST on September 17, 2008
Orca.. I would rather not know about those things! LOL but thanks for posting them anyway.. for some reason i was hoping the season was over (just kidding I know it is no where near over for 2008)
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193. tkeith
1:39 PM CDT on September 17, 2008
184 seflagamma: That is one of the most inspiring things to me that pat,press, sj etc. are doing. going to to where the need IS and the spotlight AINT... those guys have their heads and their hearts in the right place...
Member Since: Νοέμβριος 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8937
192. Vero1
6:43 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Quoting Orcasystems:
Updated

CMC 00Z.. shows the possibility of 3 or 4 new systems.

1 Starting off Bay of Campeche or the Caribbean this appears to be coming from the Pacific side. The previous model run had it building up in the BOC. This model run appears to try and split it into two.

1 Starting in the Caribbean

1 off the East Coast

1 coming in from the Atlantic

Present Satellite picture of BOC/Caribbean


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2008

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA
INTO THE GULF N OF TAMPA ALONG 25N92W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
MODERATE WINDS ARE N AND W OF THE FRONT ESPECIALLY OFF THE SE
MEXICAN COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AS A RESULT OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT OVER
THE WESTERN GULF FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN 91W-98W. THIS CONVECTION
IS FURTHER BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL
MEXICO NEAR 21N99W. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS ANTICYCLONE IS
RESULTING IN NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
GULF. WEAK UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GULF COMBINED WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ARE RESULTING IN FAIR
WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE SE GULF
EXTENDING FROM 25N84W TO 23N89W...AS WELL AS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
IN RESPONSE TO SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE PROCESSES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. LARGE CLUSTERS OF MODERATE WITH ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUE AFFECTING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM
9N-17N BETWEEN 70W-77W. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING AIDED BY UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE
PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ANCHORED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE LOCATED NEAR 20N67W. MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH AXIS IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IN DRY
MID-LEVELS IS RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE EASTERN COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WESTWARD.

Member Since: Ιούλιος 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
191. TEXASYANKEE43
6:29 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Hello out there. This is TEXASYANKEE43 typing to you from the dirty side of Ike, Liberty, Texas. What a ride. And I thought Rita was bad. I didn't mind the storm to bad (reported 123 Mph) but this aftermath is the pits. Someone send me some ice please. Well gotta go for now. Don't you just love the sound of generators and chainsaws in the morning?
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190. seflagamma
2:42 PM AST on September 17, 2008
{{{{honkytonk}}}}} yes this place is great isn't it? Glad you are ok...
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189. NEwxguy
2:41 PM EDT on September 17, 2008
honkytonk,glad you made it through,I'm sure its an experience you won't soon forget.Until you experience one of these storms,you really have no idea.
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188. 7544
6:40 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Quoting Orcasystems:
Updated

CMC 00Z.. shows the possibility of 3 or 4 new systems.

1 Starting off Bay of Campeche or the Caribbean this appears to be coming from the Pacific side. The previous model run had it building up in the BOC. This model run appears to try and split it into two.

1 Starting in the Caribbean

1 off the East Coast

1 coming in from the Atlantic

Present Satellite picture of

did check those out so if anything froms ans get into te gulf the jetstram will push it ne right or even if something was cming up from western cuba ,? the cmc does put a strong one in the gulf oiff land will that one if developes go e or ne away frm texas
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187. Gumbogator
6:35 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
More indication that Ike was a surge monster(sorry to have to pass this along). A total of 200 coffins have been unearthed in Cameron and Calcasieu parishes. Even the spirit world is homeless. The water table is very low in S Louisiana. The mosquitoes are awful. Cameron Parish is under a flood warning. Hopefully the water will begin to go down.
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186. honkytonk
1:29 PM CDT on September 17, 2008
I just wanted to express my thanks for all the knowledge and advice given here...I SURVIVED!!!!! It was the most frightening experience that my family has gone through...I just can't express what I would like to. The noises...they cut to the bone. I honestly think I'm still in shock...so I probably didn't make much sense. My heart goes out to my fellow Texans...as well as all others affected by Hurricane Ike. I will be here for the next storm
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185. belizeweatherfan
6:28 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Never left....just lurking and learning as usual. Work with the Red Cross but because of my location (Belize) more of our assistance is going to the Ike-affected Caribbean countries. Prayers are going to everyone though....
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184. seflagamma
2:29 PM AST on September 17, 2008
yes code, I agree,

Houma got hit bad, read doc's blog.. and because it is not a big city, no publicity...

when we got Wilma.. hours after the storm.. no publicity at all..(was not a big Miami event) . I called all my family to let them know we survived and they didn't even know we had a bad hit.. they watched TV and TWC and saw "only a Cat2" an no real damage...
HECK what was it, over 600,000 people in S FLA without power for over a week, some for 2 weeks and some for over a month..couldn't get down the roads because of falling trees?

and no national publicity at all really because the world was still watching Katrina in New Orleans recovery (same with Rita they really didn't get coverage after katrina in New Orleans)

And this does not take from the devestation of Katrina in New Orleans but the Gulf Coast of MS got a larger storm surge after Katrina and they got very little publicity.

Only when large metro areas are hit will you get the media there.

and if you don't get the media there you don't get the help.. but some of us are ok with that. LOL
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183. IMA
1:36 PM CDT on September 17, 2008
182. Bones429 I'd apply for that job, I'm an excellent t.v. watcher!
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182. Bones429
6:34 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Quoting HobeSoundShudders:
to all of you government emergency planners out there,

we all need to add a position to our local disaster plan ....someone to WATCH TV....this is the 2nd time during this disaster i have heard an official say "no i don't have time to watch tv, i didn't know that" - supposedly a special traffic lane "just" for responders and is blocked up per live tv and when asked why power trucks & responders sitting in traffic that was the answer.....jo

i re-read this post and it sounds like i am making a funny...i'm not. truly the guys in charge ARE too busy to watch tv but the reality is the media show some things just because of where they are and are able to be that the officials can't know - it should be used as a resourse.


Following Hurricane Wilma, Broward Co Fl passed ordinates the made the HOV lanes on the Interstates as emergency/responder traffic only following declared disaster. Also locally several cities in Broward Co passed ordinates that required that any new gas station or any station that made improvements must include a generator as part of the improvements.
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181. Orcasystems
6:35 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Updated

CMC 00Z.. shows the possibility of 3 or 4 new systems.

1 Starting off Bay of Campeche or the Caribbean this appears to be coming from the Pacific side. The previous model run had it building up in the BOC. This model run appears to try and split it into two.

1 Starting in the Caribbean

1 off the East Coast

1 coming in from the Atlantic

Present Satellite picture of BOC/Caribbean
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180. G35Wayne
6:31 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
TROPICS ARE DEAD EVERYONE GO BACK TO WORK!!!!!!
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179. IMA
1:30 PM CDT on September 17, 2008
**hell, not jail -- if it's jail, you're on your own lol -- trying to complete a FEMA course online and catch up in here, too lol
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178. IMA
1:23 PM CDT on September 17, 2008
Quoting tiggeriffic:
ok...was typing my last post as well as trying to get my youngest to take a nap when the donation debate came up...

Got to say that donating to a private cause and keeping you mouth shut is Godly...HOWEVER... it is also HUMAN NATURE to compete and ONE UP others...ever watched a telethon on tv? How many times have you heard employees at a company all combine their donations and CHALLENGE the owners to match it? Is that wrong because the said they did it? If they had not made the challenge, they might not have gotten as much money to do good with...so...YES I DONATED AND I CHALLENGE EVERYONE ELSE ON THE BLOG TO DO IT TO! If that sends me to hell so be it...I will happily burn knowing that i may have just gotten people living in their own hell right now a little bit of ice water to cool off! Ok...off my soap box...appologize to those of you who know me...
No apology necessary, that's a good point. Some people do say it just to brag, but some people do it to challenge others, and that's a good thing! I don't know you well but from everything I've seen I would never think you were bragging about it and therefore would try to help drag you out of jail if you were "bouncing" that way ;)
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177. code1
1:21 PM CDT on September 17, 2008
One more post here....Ivan and Dennis both hit us as Cat 3's. Would I rather have them than a Katrina (in MS) or Ike? YES!!! We didn't have the surge thankfully. Destin would have been wiped out as is the case in TX with some coastal towns. Cat 2 Gustav hit Houma and area south Gamma. You know what Doc and others are going through now. As with those who took a hit from Rita after Katrina, it's not fair that the metro area get all the publicity. Any hit, are hit just as hard. It's usually the metro areas that are the least prepared and cry the loudest when help is not there the next day! What ever happened to self preparedness? Apparently, those who look for handouts always will. Not casting stones here, but history thus far shows this to be true. Thankfully, I live in a lessor populated area where we don't rely on the government at first light after a storm. Neither here nor there now though. God speed to all affected and to those helping those who can't help themselves at this time.
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176. tiggeriffic
6:16 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
ok...was typing my last post as well as trying to get my youngest to take a nap when the donation debate came up...

Got to say that donating to a private cause and keeping you mouth shut is Godly...HOWEVER... it is also HUMAN NATURE to compete and ONE UP others...ever watched a telethon on tv? How many times have you heard employees at a company all combine their donations and CHALLENGE the owners to match it? Is that wrong because the said they did it? If they had not made the challenge, they might not have gotten as much money to do good with...so...YES I DONATED AND I CHALLENGE EVERYONE ELSE ON THE BLOG TO DO IT TO! If that sends me to hell so be it...I will happily burn knowing that i may have just gotten people living in their own hell right now a little bit of ice water to cool off! Ok...off my soap box...appologize to those of you who know me...
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175. ctweathergal
6:19 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Quoting DrNo:
While it is nice to see people who want to help, I cannot help but be a little taken aback. These are people we are talking about, not pets. They need help, not paternalizng condescension that robs them of their dignity. The Bible says that the highest form of charity is that which is done ANONYMOUSLY. It is not considered charity when you constantly beat your chest and howl out to the world, "See how I am helping these poor peons. See how they cannot make it without my beneficient magnanimous help unto them. How poor they are without me." Please stop the self-aggrandizement, and let us just do the work which needs to be done, each according to our means. No competition of who is the most helpful, no arguing, etc.



I am sure that the people who have taken on this effort; Press, Patrap, SJ and others I may not be aware of, do not mean to be patronizing. Many of these people have survived the same type of devastation and only want to help. I am also sure they wish that the funds they needed would just appear in an account, but that is not the reality. Marketing, making people aware of the need and effort, as well as soliciting donations are part of any charitable project.

While I can sort of understand what you are saying/feeling, in my estimation, these people are not being self congratulatory. Patrap, Press, et al are just trying to help people who are now living through what they themselves have previously been experienced. JMO, but I believe in them and their will to do the right thing.
jane
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174. seflagamma
2:19 PM AST on September 17, 2008
#164 tigger, that is right and goes along with my prev post.
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173. IMA
1:16 PM CDT on September 17, 2008
Amen, CCHS, God Bless TX, and all those who are helping :)
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172. seflagamma
2:16 PM AST on September 17, 2008
what scares me is that they are saying this was only a Cat2 (Wilma was only a Cat2)... and folks are always thinking any storm under a Cat3 is nothing but a little thunderstorm. most do not heed warnings, etc.

We have got to change the mindset of the public about these storms.
Some are more wind. some more rain and some surge events and each one can affect different areas in different ways.

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171. NEwxguy
2:13 PM EDT on September 17, 2008
Quoting DrNo:
While it is nice to see people who want to help, I cannot help but be a little taken aback. These are people we are talking about, not pets. They need help, not paternalizng condescension that robs them of their dignity. The Bible says that the highest form of charity is that which is done ANONYMOUSLY. It is not considered charity when you constantly beat your chest and howl out to the world, "See how I am helping these poor peons. See how they cannot make it without my beneficient magnanimous help unto them. How poor they are without me." Please stop the self-aggrandizement, and let us just do the work which needs to be done, each according to our means. No competition of who is the most helpful, no arguing, etc.



I think you are doing the people on this blog a grave injustice,although I don't know most of these people personally,the short time I have been here,I have repeatedly seen a lot of these bloggers urging others to help.I really don't see much chest beating on here,if anything we should be applauding them,not berating them.
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170. DrNo
6:13 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
I was referring to pets in a metaphorical sense, not literal. I was rferring to the condenscension with which some people display when helping others. I am not taking away, however, from those many faceless and nameless who do help, and yes, an example must be set, as long as it is kept within modest limits.
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169. cchsweatherman
6:07 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Just got back home from classes.

Watching all the photos come rolling in portraying the unfathomable destruction created in Hurricane Ike gives me an unnerving feeling and brings about a natural surrealness to the situation. In my mind, I couldn't help but recall how this monsterous storm once had my home within its sights and how very different my life could be at this time had it become a reality.

I will continue to pray for those whose lives have been shattered through this tragedy. But, I take comfort in having come to the realization long ago that the human spirit has overcome any obstacle thrown its way and has always seemingly triumphed despite the harrowing odds placed against it. God bless Texas.
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168. seflagamma
2:14 PM AST on September 17, 2008
Quoting tkeith:
161 and 162 well said...



on behalf of me and my good friend, code1.

you are welcome! Thank you!

lol
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167. weathermanwannabe
1:52 PM EDT on September 17, 2008
Quoting zoomiami:
I have had a passing interest in why some areas of our country were settled prior to others - like why did the settlors choose the mountains in New England, vs. flat areas where they could grow crops.

Key West was the first city in the southern half of the United States to actually populate. The reasons were the ports of entry, and it was very important in our customs department. It was much more important that Miami. So now we look at it and say maybe we shouldn't be there, but I'm not sure how you reconcile all of this.


Some of it boils down to "playing the odds" as, thankfully, a major cat 3 or 4 does not usually impact (historically anyway) the same area (in terms of the worst coc impacts)during "recovery" from a prior season....Key West has been spared a direct hit now for several decades (the Grotto prayers apparently work)......If Andrew had made landfall 20 miles to the North (the center of Downtown Miami), like Katrina with New Orleans, then the rebuilding process would have taken much longer..........As we are currently seeing with Ike, "property" is important but life, and loss of life, is the biggest and most costly impact......We can always rebuild (and all the arguments pro and con) but we cannot replace lives which is why preparation, and potential evacuation, is so critial during h-season............Gotta get back to work but the rising death toll from Ike breaks my heart......Keep providing support for the survivors and donate as much as you can to recovery in all the communities, and countries, impacted by this storm...
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166. tkeith
1:12 PM CDT on September 17, 2008
161 and 162 well said...
Member Since: Νοέμβριος 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8937
165. Vero1
6:12 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Back to Tropical Weather

000
AXNT20 KNHC 171804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS BETWEEN THE WEST AFRICAN COAST AND THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 20W/21W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A BAND
OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-11N BETWEEN 18W-20W...NEAR
THE INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE AND THE ITCZ AXIS.

LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 14N MOVING W
10 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE WAVE AXIS S OF 9N. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER FIELDS DEPICT
ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE
AXIS...PARTICULARLY OVER ITS SOUTHERN HALF.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 64W S OF 20N MOVING W
10 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN AN AREA WITHIN 150 NM
EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS NORTH OF 11N. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
JUST N OF THE WAVE...WHERE MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-25N
BETWEEN 62W-65W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WEST CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 83W S OF 20N
MOVING W 10-15 KT GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 15N
INCLUDING COASTAL AREAS OF E HONDURAS/NICARAGUA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER S MEXICO ALONG 93W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15
KT. ALL CONVECTION IS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N17W 9N27W 10N37W 10N79W. BESIDES
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM
11N-15N E OF 17W INLAND OVER W AFRICA. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 50W-63W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA
INTO THE GULF N OF TAMPA ALONG 25N92W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
MODERATE WINDS ARE N AND W OF THE FRONT ESPECIALLY OFF THE SE
MEXICAN COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AS A RESULT OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT OVER
THE WESTERN GULF FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN 91W-98W. THIS CONVECTION
IS FURTHER BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL
MEXICO NEAR 21N99W. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS ANTICYCLONE IS
RESULTING IN NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
GULF. WEAK UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GULF COMBINED WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ARE RESULTING IN FAIR
WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE SE GULF
EXTENDING FROM 25N84W TO 23N89W...AS WELL AS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
IN RESPONSE TO SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE PROCESSES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. LARGE CLUSTERS OF MODERATE WITH ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUE AFFECTING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM
9N-17N BETWEEN 70W-77W. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING AIDED BY UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE
PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ANCHORED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE LOCATED NEAR 20N67W. MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH AXIS IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IN DRY
MID-LEVELS IS RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE EASTERN COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WESTWARD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC AN UPPER HIGH IS NEAR
15N50W PRODUCING STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE W OF THE HIGH.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE
FROM 8N-18N BETWEEN 50W-62W RESULTING FROM MOIST ATMOSPHERIC
LIFT. MOISTURE IN MODERATE UPPER LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 15W-40W. ALSO...A SURFACE
TROUGH TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 32N62W TO 26N70W IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS 100 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THE RULE WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 34N43W.

$$
COHEN/WALLACE

Member Since: Ιούλιος 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
164. tiggeriffic
6:03 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
ok...is this population from people coming in on boats or are you talking about the Indians? Any people that came by boat would have come to the coast first of course...if there was fresh water, they stayed, if not, they traveled further inland till they found it...it is not the point of where they began to colonize, the point is that they did...when storms came, the survivors either rebuilt or said "bump this...I'm going INLAND!" The population of the entire earth is what causes these storms to be so catastophic...look at China, Tiwain, etc... one storm and hundreds of thousands are affected...here in the states...depends on where the storm hits...Ike VS Hugo VS Andrew...
IKE hit MAJOR cities
Hugo's eye hit Charleston...but Awendaw suffered the worst blow but is less populated
Andrew hit FL and devistated it because of the population

Don't get me wrong...Hugo was bad...I was here when it hit...but for the size of the storm it did not do the damage Andrew did and he was smaller due to the population of the area it hit
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163. seflagamma
2:12 PM AST on September 17, 2008
LOL Code, Great Minds think Alike or what!!!!
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162. code1
1:07 PM CDT on September 17, 2008
Quoting DrNo:
While it is nice to see people who want to help, I cannot help but be a little taken aback. These are people we are talking about, not pets. They need help, not paternalizng condescension that robs them of their dignity. The Bible says that the highest form of charity is that which is done ANONYMOUSLY. It is not considered charity when you constantly beat your chest and howl out to the world, "See how I am helping these poor peons. See how they cannot make it without my beneficient magnanimous help unto them. How poor they are without me." Please stop the self-aggrandizement, and let us just do the work which needs to be done, each according to our means. No competition of who is the most helpful, no arguing, etc.


While I agree with you somewhat, I have and don't care to say that I have sent dollars to pet care as well. They are family too! Trust me, I live on the panhandle of FL, I can't imagine losing a pet during the worst of the worst! I would hope that any that have extra, could donate to pet welfare as well. I'm outta here. You are starting to compare apples to oranges here. Yes, help our fellow human beings first, but in helping pets as well, you are helping humans who love them! sheesh There is enough to go 'round, if we all JUST DO IT!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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