Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

The destruction of Gilchrist, Texas

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 02:55 PM GMT on Σεπτέμβριος 17, 2008

We're in day three of my promised 7-10 day lull in Atlantic hurricane activity. That prediction is still looking good. There are no threat areas to discuss today, and the earliest any model foresees a tropical storm developing is Sunday, when the NOGAPS indicates something developing in the western Caribbean. The GFS model predicts this development will occur on the other side of Central America, in the Eastern Pacific. The GFS also predicts development of a tropical depression by Tuesday off the coast of Africa.

The destruction of Gilchrist
Many of you have probably seen the photo of Gilchrist, Texas showing complete destruction of the town of 750 people, save for one lone home. High-resolution satellite imagery made available by NOAA's National Geodetic Survey (Figure 1) confirm that of the approximately 1000 structures existing in the town before Hurricane Ike, only about five survived the hurricane. Approximately 200 of these buildings were homes, and it is thought that some of the residents attempted to ride out the storm in their homes. According to media reports, about 34 survivors from Gilchrist and the neighboring communities of Crystal Beach and Port Bolivar have been fished out of Galveston Bay in the past few days. Rescuers who have reached Gilchrist have not been able to find any victims in the debris because there is no debris. Ike's storm surge knocked 99.5% of the 1,000 buildings in Gilchrist off their foundations and either demolished them or washed them miles inland into the swamplands behind Gilchrist. Until search teams can locate the debris of what was once was Gilchrist, we will not know the fate of those who may have stayed behind to ride out the storm.

Figure 1. The town of Gilchrist, Texas before and after Hurricane Ike. Image credit (top): Googlemaps.com, DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, Houston-Galveston Area Council. Bottom: National Geodetic Survey.

Why did Gilchrist get destroyed?
It's rare to see a town so completely destroyed by a hurricane, to the point where you can't even see the wreckage. The neighboring towns of Crystal Beach, to the south, and High Island, to the north, were also mostly destroyed, but weren't swept clean of nearly all structures and wreckage. This is because Gilchrist was built in an unusually vulnerable place. It's bad enough to situate your town on a low-lying peninsula, as was the case for Crystal Beach. But in Gilchrist's case, the town was located at the narrowest point of the Bolivar Peninsula, at a point where it was only a few hundred meters wide (Figure 2). Not only did Gilchrist suffer a head-on assault by Ike's direct storm surge of 14+ feet, topped by 20' high battering waves, the town also suffered a reverse surge once the hurricane had passed. As Ike moved to the north, the counter-clockwise flow of wind around the storm pushed Galveston Bay's waters back across the town of Gilchrist from northwest to southeast. This second surge of water likely finished off anything the main storm surge had left.

Will Gilchrist be rebuilt?
I hope the government will see fit to buy up the land that was once the town of Gilchrist and make it into a park. Building a town in Gilchrist's location makes as much sense as building a town on the sides of an active volcano. (Unfortunately, there are plenty of people who have done just that, such as on the slopes of Mt. Vesuvius in Italy). If past history is any guide, Gilchrist will be rebuilt, and it will take another mighty hurricane to permanently take down the town. That was the case for the town of Indianola, Texas, which lay in a vulnerable low-lying location on the shores of Matagorda Bay in the mid-1800's. Indianola was the second largest port in the state of Texas, and home to 5,000 people. In 1875, a powerful Category 3 hurricane piled up a huge storm surge as it came ashore in Indianola. The surge destroyed 3/4 of the town's 2,000 buildings, and killed 176 people. The city was rebuilt, but in 1886, a devastating Category 4 hurricane swept almost the entire town of Indianola into Matagorda Bay, killing another 250 townspeople. The people of Indianola finally gave up and moved elsewhere, and the ruins of their town now lie under four feet of water in Matagorda Bay.

Figure 2. The Bolivar Peninsula, Texas before Hurricane Ike. The "A" pink balloon marker shows the location of Crystal Beach. Gilchrist is to the northeast of Crystal Beach, at a point where the peninsula narrows down to just a few hundred meters wide. Image credit: Googlemaps.com, TerraMetrica, LeadDog Consulting, Tele Atlas.

Links to follow
High-resolution photos of the Bolivar Peninsula are available using Microsoft's HD View Beta.

How you can help
For those of you who want to help those in need, I'm proud to say that a group of wunderground members are spearheading their own Hurricane Ike relief effort, aimed at providing assistance and supplies to people that are not in the mainstream relief areas. They've already raised $5000, and the first relief truck with supplies is on the way to Texas. Deductions are tax-deductible, and can be made in several ways:

Patrap's wunderblog
www.stormjunkie.com
www.portlight.org

Everything they are doing is at the specific request of people on the scene. At the request of the Director of Disability Affairs for the Mayor of Houston, they are sending 50 wheelchairs, 500 walkers, 200 pairs of crutches, and several pallets of first aid supplies. They are also sending a 16-foot truck from Charleston loaded with drinks, personal hygiene products, and non perishable food items. A truck is heading out of New Orleans with similar supplies. Every Catholic school in South Carolina is collecting supplies with the goal of filling two more trucks.

Of course, contributing to the Red Cross or your local church is another great way to help out. Thanks!

Jeff Masters

San Leon,Texas Devastated by Hurricane Ike pt.3 (txcuda)

Images taken in San Leon,Texas along Bayshore Dr.and Ave A 1/2 Tuesday afternoon. The devastation caused by Hurricane Ike is something that will take this community years to recover from. Relief crews from both the National Guard as well as the Red Cross were seen this afternoon. Quite a few residents will find that they no longer have a home when they return. Those that rode the storm out along the bayshore are fortunate to be still with us as there have been quite a few fatalities in just this small community.Electricity is weeks if not months off...and water service will be a week or more before it can be restored. Crews were out this afternoon shutting off service to meters that had no home any longer. The mosquitos are out in clouds but at least

no coment (olivecadik)

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951. conchygirl 02:45 PM GMT on Σεπτέμβριος 18, 2008
Quoting txalwaysprepared: I have to say... I am very proud of my little Texas community down here. As I drove around yesterday... No one is waiting for assistance. No one is waiting for the government, handouts, what-have-you to start and clean up. People are helping each other. Using their own tractors, bulldozers and such. It was great to see. I'm pleased to see the majority of people not sitting here waiting for a govt bailout or blaming the govt for not coming in to help them fast enough. Yeah, good things happening amongst the difficult times. Nice to hear this especially after some of what I was just reading from the shelters. Member Since: Ιούνιος 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910

952. JRRP 02:45 PM GMT on Σεπτέμβριος 18, 2008
Member Since: Αύγουστος 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4357

953. usa777 02:49 PM GMT on Σεπτέμβριος 18, 2008
Were talking about some alternate plans for this also Conchy. I'm just so time restricted at work and my employer was kind enough to give us off a week to help out. Who knows, we will figure something out. Quoting conchygirl: Interesting, I got the same thing when I tried to volunteer for Charley, however, they indicated they had some paid positions available. So I gave it up and just donated. We even donated old (but in excellent condition) appliances to Salvation Army as they desperately needed them in the Punta Gorda area. Member Since: Αύγουστος 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 164

954. CTSkywatcher 02:51 PM GMT on Σεπτέμβριος 18, 2008
916. Makes me angry....pouring coffee over head.....:~((( Ah, isn't nature great? We have hurricanes to balance out tropospheric heat build up...and we have these lazy irresponsible folks that are the opposite of our Pat/SJ/Press etc etc...Ying and Yang. I feel for our volunteers...strong folks indeed. And here comes the MJO ahead of schedule..... Member Since: Μάρτιος 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 52

955. Bones429 03:03 PM GMT on Σεπτέμβριος 18, 2008
For those people thinking about volunteering to assist following a disaster, FEMA has a course about it and it might be surprising to some, exactly what governments think about what is called spontaneous volunteers the problems associated with them Link

956. Flewid 03:15 PM GMT on Σεπτέμβριος 18, 2008
Quoting twifob: Please turn your tinfoil hat to SHINY SIDE OUT. Lyme disease was first clinically described in the 1880s in Europe. In the USA, it was called tickborne meningopolyneuritis, Garin-Bujadoux syndrome, Bannworth syndrome, Afzelius syndrome, Montauk Knee or sheep tick fever. West Nile virus was not studied in the USA until after it became endemic here. If that entire lab was battered into pieces, releasing all the viruses, no one would be in any danger. They can't survive long outside the host, and have to be transmitted in specific ways - casual contact isn't enough. Sunlight, pH changes, and other environmental factors kill them quickly. They decay, just like other proteins. Figures that there would be a government disinformation specialist lurking on this site. LOL, pardon my duh. Member Since: Αύγουστος 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 0

957. TheCaneWhisperer 03:18 PM GMT on Σεπτέμβριος 18, 2008
Quoting hurricane23: At this time the convection your seeing on IR is being caused by an interaction with a upper level low and a tropical wave in the vicinity.I see no signs of a surface feature developing.The caribbean/gulf is the area to watch during the next week or two as the wet phase pushes into the area. Not saying there is but, there is certainly a mid-level feature. Remember this? Tropical Depression Ten formed 1100 statute miles (1770 km) east of the Lesser Antilles on August 13. Conditions were not favorable for development, as strong vertical shear literally ripped the system apart, and advisories were discontinued the next day when it showed no organized deep convection. The remnants of Tropical Depression Ten continued drifting northwestward before degenerating into a tropical wave north of the Leeward Islands. The mid-level remnant circulation eventually merged with another system in the "complex genesis" of what would become Tropical Depression Twelve and, eventually, Hurricane Katrina.[14] Not comparing the two but, the mid-level / Tropical Wave interaction is there. ULL is enhancing the activity.

958. fireflymom 03:22 PM GMT on Σεπτέμβριος 18, 2008
Remember folks this is Texas and even an mandatory evacuation does not mean that they can make anyone leave. I f folk choose to stay there is no way they can be dragged out of here. Natures culling process is able to work unimpeded at storm time. Sad but everyone here is doing their best to pick up all the pieces. My husband works on Galveston Island and people there including the may or are operating very little sleep, trying to use the available resources to the benefit of the greatest population. The one water main from the mainland to the island will take a great deal of repair before they have running water. The natural gas generators are useless as the gas has been turned off due to leaks and the is no power other than gas or diesel generators. Beginning to get limited phone service and water is being trucked in as are groceries and tents for some of the workers to be fed under. Incredible amount of work has already been accomplished but so much more to do.Those on the island and surrounding areas really deserve a break folks, negativity only begets negativity. We need more positive words to support the people who are working so hard in poor conditions with very little to work with. Member Since: Ιούνιος 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 510

959. TheCaneWhisperer 03:42 PM GMT on Σεπτέμβριος 18, 2008
958. fireflymom 3:22 PM GMT on September 18, 2008 They should change that. It's irresponsible and selfish to defy a mandatory evac. Decisions like that not only put you in grave danger, they also put the people who have to come rescue you in danger as well. Financial ramifications, that take a back seat at that point because life is more important, apply as well.

960. MahFL 04:38 PM GMT on Σεπτέμβριος 18, 2008
We keep hearing of putting first responders lives at risk. First responders are usually very carefull, well trained and experinced. When was the last time a first responder died in a Hurricane related rescue ? Member Since: Ιούνιος 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2467

961. goldmoon 05:11 PM GMT on Σεπτέμβριος 18, 2008
Quoting keywestbrat: if they put as much effort into getting people out of the barrier islands as they do about not letting anyone back on the island probably alot more people would be alive, I agree that there are alot more people not accounted for that they are letting on, if you think about it the houses are gone and so are the ones that stayed in those houses, you would not have a chance with all the debry sloshing around in the surge, sad but true, I know it is a lot to hope for, but I posted a picture of what my parents survived and swam out of during Katrina earlier in this blog. They were 73 and 64 at the time, and saved their three dogs. Maybe we'll hear of a few more miracles.

962. lopaka001 07:53 PM GMT on Σεπτέμβριος 18, 2008
This email confirms that you have donated to WUBA IKE Relief (pjp1201@cox.net) using PayPal. Confirmation number: 39H*04VY29101 Portlight Strategies I did my part.. Good Day everyone! ;=) Member Since: Φεβρουάριος 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 239

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