Western Caribbean disturbance moving over the Yucatan
Heavy thunderstorm activity in association with a broad area of low pressure over the Western Caribbean remains disorganized today. Visible satellite loops show a modest area of heavy thunderstorms, with no sign of organization or a surface circulation. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a surface circulation, either. Wind shear is moderate, in the 10-15 knot range.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of the Western Caribbean. Image credit: NOAA.
The disturbance is drifting westward, and should move over northern Guatemala, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula today before it can develop into a tropical depression. These areas can expect heavy rains of 2-4 inches today through Sunday from the disturbance. NHC is currently giving it a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression.
Elsewhere in the tropics, the NOGAPS model is forecasting the possible formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Nicaragua on Thursday, while the GFS model thinks something might develop off the coast of Africa Thursday. It's a little late to be getting an African storms developing, so I doubt the GFS forecast. However, we'll need to watch the Western Caribbean over the coming week.
Links to follow
Wundermap for the Western Caribbean
Hurricane Ike relief efforts
When a major hurricane hits, relief efforts are always confused and don't reach many areas with great needs. Thus, a group of wunderground bloggers mobilized the day after Ike hit to help out. Their goal was to provide immediate help where traditional aid efforts were coming short, with a focus on providing equipment for people with disabilities and a full spectrum of relief supplies to smaller communities often neglected. Traditional, professional relief efforts are weighed down by bureaucracy and cannot respond as nimbly as smaller, grass-roots relief efforts can. I believe our dollars have been well-spent by the relief effort organized by our own Patrap, Presslord, and Stormjunkie, under the banner of Portlight Strategies, Inc. I encourage you to donate to the cause, or the traditional charity organization of your choice.
Here's a breakdown of how much money has been donated, and how much spent. Figures are rounded to the nearest $100. More details can be found on StormJunkie's blog:
Total money donated: $31,200 (about 400 donors)
Total money spent so far: $10,350
Total money in the portlight.org checking account: $21,000
--$9,000 in escrow for legal defense
--$12,000 available for immediate relief operations
Total money in the original Paypal account set up by Patrap: $1000
Total money in the new Paypal account set up by Presslord: $250
Here's how the $10350 has been spent:
WalMart - $2000 - supplies
Costco - $1000 - supplies
Patrick Pearson (Patrap) - $1000 (fuel, rental costs for a truck)
Truck from Charleston - $1500 - fuel
Florida supply truck - $2100 - escort, credentialing, fuel, vehicle repair, lodging
Crew food,lodging, transport home - $1000
Truck rental, gas for truck from Atlanta - $1750
The biggest coup for the effort came when portlight arranged to get about $150,000 worth of medical equipment donated to the cause. Rob Ingham (AKA Rainman32) and Roger Knight (AKA NLimbo) took a rented truck to Atlanta, grabbed the gear, and delivered it to Houston. In the shipment:
Four Gaylord boxes medical supplies
-Soft casts
-various catheter kits
-catheter bags
-oxygen tubing kits
-other misc. medical supplies
13 hospital bed mattresses and pressure pads
2 Gaylord boxes of sanitized walkers (20 per box)
4 Gaylord boxes of unsanitized walkers (20 per box)
2 pallets with two electric wheelchairs each (4)
100 pairs of crutches
30 bedside commodes sanitized
6 gerry chairs
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I have your nick in Cancun
I'm so out of touch, have been in main so very little ever since Ike hit - feel so out-of-it, need a brain transplant lol
my .277 can take a steer so I would assume that being a yes, but I think using a pistol on a steer wouldn't be the greates choice lol
I have gone wild cow hunting with a .41 it works
I am a hell of a shot w/a pistol but don't even know how to load a shotgun, I'd probably put it in backwards lol
Volunteering at the gun club this week so maybe they'll learn me Ha!
Many moons ago on the west coast of vancouver Island there used to be a dutch settlement. They had livestock.. when they left.. they left some cows, which ran wild.. there is actually wild cows still there. Its called Estevan point
Never been into pistols as much, always been a rifle man lol, I do carry pistols, and train with them though, mainly as a backup in case I cant use the rifle.
who the hell would want to go cow hunting?
LOL seriously I am really laughing right now, a lot!
As long as she keeps moving and doesnt stall may get a sunny day in after all.
1 out of 7 aint bad...lol
Got your request earlier and will make sure I check them all out.
Thanks.. wife is looking forward to what you find.. she also wants to know more about where you are staying, when you get back
Simple.. I was a commercial fisherman, a longtime ago. When the weather got bad, we ran into the lee side of Estevan pt, which has an anchorage. We could be there for days. So we would take the pistols and go hunting. You do not need a tag to shot wild cows.. they are not regulated..hell very few people know they are even there.. Beef is Beef :)
makes sense enough to me... lol
It sounded absolutely ridiculous, but now that you explained your reason, makes more sense :)
Actually, very honestly, that steer this week got me thinking again about all the livestock affected by Ike & Gustav, got me very melancholy :(
Not exactly grain feed and fat... more like beefalo, leaner then regular
See, I just seem nuts.. that doesn't mean I am :)
Off to bed, gotta be up in about 5 hrs.
Night all.
Have a great time.. hope it clears up.
Ok, I am off.. need my sleep.. later all
IMA, try not to shoot anything or anyone tonight :)
Wave Maker
Laura's finished with us now and is making it to the south of England.
Nothing like rain and a bit of wind. Stronger than the usual, but not much to write home about, thankfully.
Just wait till next week. All the models are saying that we'll get a tropical system in that time.
Army beat Tulane
Navy beat Air Force
Good Morning All
Wild Cows, Cow Hunting? I once shot a bull on my dads farm, does that count? No you don't want to eat a bull, maybee if you were starving, but surley nnot to just put on the grill!
yes ideed.. 6th time in a row.. can't stand them purty fly boys anyway, I even root for Army against them.. lessee, we have you fella's now 4 times in a row right? Your last senior class NEVER tasted victory over Navy.. your next one won't either.. Go Navy BEAT Army... again..
hmmm, I am pleased that the frontal boundary has lifted north and is giving Dade.. read "Joe Robbie stadium" a break for todays game.
Quikscat has a well defined surface low at 9N 33W in the midst of that heavy convection. Although it is getting late for a CV system to make it all the way across the surface low is far enough S to have a chance to do just that.
The CIMSS shear map was not available this morning so I am unable to see what conditions aloft are like.
Something to watch over the next 24 hrs to see whether it develops.
What weather?
LOL.....
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND COULD EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
I think for the US of A the season is 99% over with.
I hope so. Had to live in a tent for a few days, and now in a small travel trailer.
Hired the "IKE Remodeling Company" to install a skylight. Did the job in seconds, even added a bonus one in the deal, but left a huge mess behind.
Hopefully we'll be rebuilt for next season. Amazing the power of these storms 90 miles inland.
I don't see any well-defined surface low there and this morning's quicksat just showed an area where the winds are converging.
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