Western Caribbean disturbance moving over the Yucatan
Heavy thunderstorm activity in association with a broad area of low pressure over the Western Caribbean remains disorganized today. Visible satellite loops show a modest area of heavy thunderstorms, with no sign of organization or a surface circulation. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a surface circulation, either. Wind shear is moderate, in the 10-15 knot range.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of the Western Caribbean. Image credit: NOAA.
The disturbance is drifting westward, and should move over northern Guatemala, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula today before it can develop into a tropical depression. These areas can expect heavy rains of 2-4 inches today through Sunday from the disturbance. NHC is currently giving it a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression.
Elsewhere in the tropics, the NOGAPS model is forecasting the possible formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Nicaragua on Thursday, while the GFS model thinks something might develop off the coast of Africa Thursday. It's a little late to be getting an African storms developing, so I doubt the GFS forecast. However, we'll need to watch the Western Caribbean over the coming week.
Links to follow
Wundermap for the Western Caribbean
Hurricane Ike relief efforts
When a major hurricane hits, relief efforts are always confused and don't reach many areas with great needs. Thus, a group of wunderground bloggers mobilized the day after Ike hit to help out. Their goal was to provide immediate help where traditional aid efforts were coming short, with a focus on providing equipment for people with disabilities and a full spectrum of relief supplies to smaller communities often neglected. Traditional, professional relief efforts are weighed down by bureaucracy and cannot respond as nimbly as smaller, grass-roots relief efforts can. I believe our dollars have been well-spent by the relief effort organized by our own Patrap, Presslord, and Stormjunkie, under the banner of Portlight Strategies, Inc. I encourage you to donate to the cause, or the traditional charity organization of your choice.
Here's a breakdown of how much money has been donated, and how much spent. Figures are rounded to the nearest $100. More details can be found on StormJunkie's blog:
Total money donated: $31,200 (about 400 donors)
Total money spent so far: $10,350
Total money in the portlight.org checking account: $21,000
--$9,000 in escrow for legal defense
--$12,000 available for immediate relief operations
Total money in the original Paypal account set up by Patrap: $1000
Total money in the new Paypal account set up by Presslord: $250
Here's how the $10350 has been spent:
WalMart - $2000 - supplies
Costco - $1000 - supplies
Patrick Pearson (Patrap) - $1000 (fuel, rental costs for a truck)
Truck from Charleston - $1500 - fuel
Florida supply truck - $2100 - escort, credentialing, fuel, vehicle repair, lodging
Crew food,lodging, transport home - $1000
Truck rental, gas for truck from Atlanta - $1750
The biggest coup for the effort came when portlight arranged to get about $150,000 worth of medical equipment donated to the cause. Rob Ingham (AKA Rainman32) and Roger Knight (AKA NLimbo) took a rented truck to Atlanta, grabbed the gear, and delivered it to Houston. In the shipment:
Four Gaylord boxes medical supplies
-Soft casts
-various catheter kits
-catheter bags
-oxygen tubing kits
-other misc. medical supplies
13 hospital bed mattresses and pressure pads
2 Gaylord boxes of sanitized walkers (20 per box)
4 Gaylord boxes of unsanitized walkers (20 per box)
2 pallets with two electric wheelchairs each (4)
100 pairs of crutches
30 bedside commodes sanitized
6 gerry chairs
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Indeed, it is possible that will have another major hurricane this season. Anticyclones are building in the Atlantic basin as a result of the increasing MJO pulses. These high pressure systems will provide a more favorable environment for tropical cyclone genesis, by enhancing lower level convergence.
There is no need to call me "Sir" Keywestman, I am a weather enthusiast teenager in high school. =)
www.portlight.org
Enjoy your trip! Some good sales at Old Navy, lol.
No no no...
Some pink and black laytex clubwear, you know, something Madonna would be proud of...
I'll leave
I'll be back later.
So we can talk about you again then?
=>
Seems there is a closed low in the EPAC...
Quite unusual to see twin upper level lows moving in tandem towards the same direction and same speed. Until these the twins either disintegrate or leave the picture, there won't be any tropical development close to home.
We're currently having Laura lashing us, quite strong winds and absolutely bucketing it down. Because we reaaaaally needed more rains. The conditions have deteriorated especially in the last couple of hours.
Met Office have changed their tune somewhat and have upgraded their advisories to 'orange'. Lancashire (Where I currently am) and Cheshire are currently getting the worst of it.
Last 20 years of landfalling TC's that hit CONUS and their landfall winds.
2005:
Hurricane Wilma 10/15-10/26 Category 3 Hurricane (South Florida)--- most intense storm in history while in the Caribbean before landfall.
1999:
Hurricane Irene 10/12-10/19 Category 1 Hurricane (South Florida)
1996:
Tropical Storm Josephine 10/04-10/16 Tropical Storm Fla Panhandle)
1995:
Hurricane Opal 09/27-10/06 Category 3 Hurricane (Alabama, Florida state line)
1994:
Hurricane Gordon 11/08-11/21 Tropical Storm (all over Florida similar to this year's Fay)
1990:
Tropical Storm Marco 10/09-10/13 Tropical Storm (Big Bend Fla)
1989:
Hurricane Jerry 10/12-10/16 Category 1 Hurricane (so much for shutting door for Texas landfalls in October)
1988:
Tropical Storm Keith 11/17-11/26 Tropical Storm (West Florida Tampa area)
1987:
Hurricane Floyd 10/09-10/14 Category 1 Hurricane (South Fla)
yes, Florida is most in danger in Oct and Nov and usually coming in thru Gulf.
If it does move much to the North or West SHEAR will surely do it in.
Guess I will head to Lowe's and then clean the fish tanks before the wife pecks my eyes out...
Later.
Biblical Carnage?
A little overstated maybe?
[sigh]
Tropical development next weekend wouldn't surprise me. I think we've still got a few more storms to go, though exactly what they'll be like still stymies me.
More later!
You forgot some:
2005
Tropical Storm Tammy
2004
Tropical Storm Matthew
2002
Hurricane Lili (made landfall in october)
1998
Hurricane Mitch
1991
Tropical Storm Fabian
Unnamed Hurricane
I am planning (SWMBO'ed decreed)a vacation December 05/08.
I though of the following resorts around Cancun (SWMBO'ed, gave me the list and said pick one)
Moon Palace Golf and Spa Puerto morelos
Excellence Riviera Cancun
Ceiba del mar spa
Anyone know anything about any of them?
(Weather Spin) What kind of weather should I expect at that time of year.
Ah drak dont bite just yet the GFS has been doing this since early may on its 10-14 day range.The atlantic is dominated by ULL's right now.I agree with Dr.Masters and find any development out in the eastern tropical atlantic highly suspect.
WATCH THIS
I do not really trust long range models, the long range forecasts fluctuates too much to be taken seriously. In about 360 hours (15 day) from now, the GFS forecast something to hit the Florida west coast. On the next run, it might drop the system, or forecast it to hit Louisiana. Any forecast beyond 190 hours is highly inaccurate.
Ohhh bad mental image :((
You best bet is looking close to home and even that is not looking to ideal and the present time.
That ULL looks like it is making a bee line towards the carribean disturbance. Could it catch up to it and tear it apart?
I will eventually post Global tropical analysis on my website
We won't need the ULL to catch the disturbance to tear it apart; the Yucatan Peninsula and deep-layered trough over the Gulf of Mexico will do the job quite well.
Wow, you must be a veteran hurricane23.
How did the GFS perform 20 years ago compare to now?
Gotcha! Thanks
No not at all iam just basically stating the fact i find the GFS output highly suspect on anything developing of the african coast.I still think this season has about 2-3 named storms left in it.
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