Bill intensifies to Category 4; globe has 5th warmest July on record
Category 4 Hurricane Bill is now the the fourth strongest tropical cyclone to appear on the planet so far this year, and may grow even stronger. Visible and infrared satellite imagery continue to show an impressive, well-organized, hurricane, with plenty of low-level spiral banding and upper-level outflow well-established on all sides except the west. On Bill's west side, upper-level winds from the west are creating a modest 10 knots of wind shear, which is giving the hurricane a bit of a squashed appearance there.
Wind shear is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5-15 knots, for the next four days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) will rise steadily from 28.5°C today to 29°C on Friday. Total ocean heat content is at a maximum today, and will gradually decline over the next four days. Bill should be able to take advantage of these favorable conditions a remain a major hurricane the next three days.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image from NASA's Aqua spacecraft at 12:40pm EDT Tuesday August 18, 2009. Image credit: NASA GSFC.
Water vapor satellite loops show a small "short-wave" trough of low pressure to the north-northwest of Bill, and this trough has turned Bill on a more northwesterly track over the past two days. Bill will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the main impact of the hurricane on these islands will be high waves. The short wave trough (so called because it has a relatively small amplitude and wavelength) is not strong enough to turn Bill due north, and Bill is also expected to miss Bermuda. High waves and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph are the worst that Bermuda is likely to get from Bill.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Bill's eye zoomed in, taken from NASA's Aqua spacecraft at 12:40pm EDT Tuesday August 18, 2009. Image credit: NASA GSFC.
An unusually strong "long wave" trough of low pressure (called long wave because of its large amplitude and wavelength) is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week. This trough will turn Bill to the north, and also bring high levels of wind shear in the 40 - 65 knot range on Sunday. Exactly where this turn occurs is still not clear. The models continue to be in two camps: an eastern camp (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF) that takes Bill 300 - 500 miles east of Cape Cod, and a more western camp (NOGAPS, UKMET) that bring Bill within 150 - 200 miles of Cape Cod. Both sets of models bring Bill ashore over the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia. Bill will be weakening rapidly as it makes landfall, and is likely to be a Category 1 hurricane if it hits Nova Scotia, or strong tropical storm if it hits Newfoundland.
Bill's big waves
Large swells from Bill will begin impacting the U.S. East coast from Florida to Maine beginning Friday night or Saturday morning. Seas will build to 5 - 10 feet in the offshore waters from central Florida northwards to South Carolina, and to 10 - 15 feet from North Carolina to Cape Cod. Near shore, waves will be about 40% less. This will cause a significant coastal erosion event along some portions of the coast. The latest run of the NOAA Wavewatch III model suggests that significant wave heights near Bill's center will reach 50 feet on Sunday. Since maximum wave height is typically about a factor of 1.9 greater than the significant wave height (which is the average trough-to-crest height of the top 1/3 largest waves), a few huge waves near Bill's center may reach 95 feet high.
Possible impacts to New England
The current set of computer model runs predicts that the center of Bill will pass Cape Cod, Massachusetts Sunday afternoon or evening. Tropical storm-force sustained winds of 39 mph or greater currently extend out 185 miles to the west of Bill's center, so that if Bill maintains its current wind distribution, Cape Cod could see sustained winds of about 40 mph Sunday night if the models predicting a more westerly path are correct. However, Bill will not keep this same radius of winds. The hurricane will weaken considerably beginning Sunday morning, once the storm gets caught up in the approaching long wave trough. High wind shear of 40 - 65 knots due to strong southwesterly winds aloft will act to compress the hurricane in the east-west direction, keeping the hurricane's strongest winds away from Cape Cod. The highest winds are likely to be no more than 30 mph on Cape Cod from Bill, if the storm follows the track of the western camp of models nearest to the Massachusetts. A few rain squalls may affect coastal Massachusetts, but the main impact of Bill on New England is likely to be coastal erosion from high waves.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The remains of Tropical Storm Ana are bringing scattered heavy rain showers to the Bahamas and Florida today. The remains are disorganized, and are not likely to re-develop. The only model calling for a new tropical cyclone to develop in the Atlantic over the next seven days is the GFS model, which predicts development off the coast of Africa about 7 days from now.
Fifth warmest July on record globally; a cold July in the U.S.
The globe recorded its fifth warmest July since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NOAA rated the period January - July 2009 as the sixth warmest such period on record. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July 2009 as the 2nd warmest July on record, behind July of 1998. For the second month in a row, global ocean Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in July were the warmest on record, 0.59°C (1.06°F) above the 20th century average. This broke the previous July record set in 1998. The record July SSTs were due in part to an ongoing El Niño event in the Eastern Pacific, which has substantially warmed a large stretch of the tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean. As El Niño conditions mature during the coming months, near-record global ocean and land temperatures will probably continue. Now that El Niño conditions have been well-established for three months, the atmosphere has begun to heat up in response. It typically takes up to seven months for the atmosphere to heat up in response to ocean heating from an El Niño. This may explain why June of 2009, which independent assessments by NOAA, NASA, and the UK Hadley center agreed was the 2nd or 3rd warmest June on record at the surface, recorded only average satellite-measured temperatures in the lower atmosphere. In contrast, the July satellite-measured temperatures in the lower atmosphere were the 2nd or 3rd warmest on record, in agreement with the assessments that surface temperatures were the 2nd to 5th warmest on record.
Figure 3. Departure of temperature from average for July 2009. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
A cold July for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average July temperature of 23.1°C (73.5°F) was the coolest since 1994, and July temperatures were the 27th coolest in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and West Virginia experienced their coolest ever July. Kentucky, Missouri, Michigan, and Wisconsin recorded their second coolest July in history. A strong trough of low pressure parked itself over the eastern portion of the U.S. in July, funneling down plenty of cold air from Canada. In the western U.S., a ridge of high pressure dominated, bringing unusually hot conditions. Arizona recorded its 3rd warmest July on record, and Seattle, Washington recorded its hottest day in history on July 28, notching a 103°F reading. This was 3°F above the previous record set in 1994.
U.S. precipitation was near average in July, with the month ranking 40th wettest in the 115-year record. U.S. tornado activity was above average in July, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. However, no tornado deaths occurred in July.
At the end of July, 14% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is a drop from the 19% figure observed at the beginning of the year. These extreme drought regions were exclusively in South and Central Texas.
I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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interesting =\
gotta go find models to see if they pick up on it now =]
These mets are behind the curve I'm afraid
Hurricane 03L
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 7.2
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm
Current Intensity Analysis
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 AUG 2009 Time : 201500 UTC
Lat : 19:43:41 N Lon : 57:15:56 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 939.0mb/124.6kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.3 6.3 6.3
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.4mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 32 km
Center Temp : +14.3C Cloud Region Temp : -64.9C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
History File Listing
Satellite Imagery (JAVA movie)
Time Series
Experimental Wind Field Product
McIDAS | MATLAB
Me too! come on trough....
38 and Lex would be dry. The Starbucks at 28 and 3 ave,maybe not. Meet me at the one at 34 and Park which has a great view of the river. That would be a sight to behold:)
Plans are to evacuate only those areas that are in direct threat of surge. Those evacuated will be moved to one of 56 shelters centered in the non surge areas within each boro. the 3 million on long Island will be evacuated through NYC. The nightmare of a logistical nightmare.
The Stadium affect is when the eye is sort funnel shaped like you're looking right down at ocean, about pointing westward well I'm not sure , but I noticed that the "eye" of a hurricane sometimes point North, East, straight down , South and westward, I have noticed that when it point north or east, the hurricane tends to track NW/N , when the eye point west or south it tends to move more W to WNW, don't know if anyone else ever noticed this or its significance regarding a track.
This west componet is playing out right now in front of our eyes because of the fast forward movement of 20mph
My projected path from this morning looks pretty good at this hour, especially considering the models have shifted a tad west. I also noticed the NHC now does not have Bermuda in the cone, neither do I.
From 9 am this morning (I'll issue another a little later, likely between 6:30 and 7:30):
But they stopped updating more than an hour ago...grrr.
When I clicked on it, there was the little hand with a 'dynamite explosion' type icon with an exclamation point (red) in the middle of it. Not one link will open. Can you help? (Please send an email - don't want to take up any more space here!) TIA
I hope the trough can pull him out.
The tides are already so high in the Bay of Fundy I can't even imagine them if they got much higher. Watched a tidal bore come roaring up a river and within a few minutes a peaceful stream was absolutely incredible.
Check again, latest image I have is 2142
Yeah man, looks great for now.. Howd you get all those graphics? I just use paint lol
Bill isn't moving any faster than the
average person can run...
Is that about right?
Bill's future movement will be highly dependent on the break down of the upper level high now steering the hurricane. We are starting to see more of a break down on the western side of this ridge. Bill will tend to track into a weakness created by this break down causing the hurricane to track more to the northwest tonight through Friday. A strong upper level trough now located over the central United States will move east causing increasing southwest upper level winds over the western Atlantic this weekend. This will help steer the hurricane on a more northerly course between 65 west longitude and 70 west longitude. If the upper level trough moves faster than expected Bill's track will be closer to 65 west. If the upper level trough moves slower then Bill's track will be closer to 70 west. Regardless of the exact track Bill is a large hurricane and its tropical storm force wind field extends outward more than 200 miles from the center of the storm. This will create large and dangerous surf conditions in and around Bermuda along with strong gusty winds. The east coast of the United States especially from Hatteras North Carolina to the coast of Maine will also experience these dangerous surf conditions this weekend. There's still the chance Bill could track close enough to coastal sections of New England, especially Cape Cod to cause not only the dangerous surf but also strong perhaps tropical storm force wind gusts.
In the long term Bill will weaken quickly during Sunday and Sunday night as the hurricane approaches the east or southeast coast of Nova Scotia. Current computer forecasts suggest Bill will threaten Nova Scotia and Newfoundland later Sunday through Monday as it weakens to a category 1 hurricane by Sunday night and to a tropical storm by Monday morning over southern Newfoundland. Atlantic Canada will experience higher than normal surf with dangerous rip currents. The area will experience tropical storm force winds with hurricane force wind gusts along and near the coast of Nova Scotia late Sunday and Sunday night and tropical storm force winds over much of Newfoundland later Sunday night into Monday morning. Heavier rainfall will also impact parts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland late Sunday and Sunday night and mostly Newfoundland on Monday. Bill should become a non tropical low pressure area as it moves across Newfoundland during Monday morning and will be northeast of Newfoundland by Monday evening.
And when would these evacuations become mandatory? I mean, if Bill decides to come closer than predicted, how far in advance do emergency officials make that call?
Just curious.
What would happen if this hit New York head on? Any thoughts?
TWC proudly presents... IT COULD HAPPENED......sponsered by "HEAD ON" need to apply it on my forehead after a guestion like that....
We would eventually have some videos of Oz standing on top of the Empire state Building with catchers equipment on and leaning into the wind, kinda like King Kong.
Chuck
Outdoor Rugs
I cannot get anything past 20:25 for some reason. Even with closing the tab and opening a new window and pasting the link. F5 doesn't change anything either.
Category 3 hurricane (SSHS)
Duration August 15 – August 26
Intensity 115 mph (185 km/h) (1-min), 952 mbar (hPa)
The 4th storm of the season began its life in the Central Tropical Atlantic on August 15. The storm moved west-northwestward for the first week of its life, while strengthening on the way. As it reached Category 3 strength, it moved more northwestward. Cooler waters weakened the storm, but it managed to hit New York City directly as an 85 mph (137 km/h) hurricane. It was one of 2 hurricanes to directly hit New York throughout the 19th century, with the other being the 1821 Norfolk and Long Island hurricane. This storm was one of four active hurricanes on August 22.
from Wiki.
This 1893 storm was the only hurricane I could find that made a direct hit on NYC.
But I must say one thing:Why in the hell does anyone think we in NYC need some kind of wakeup call. We are awake, have been since September 11, 2001
Are you doing VIS or IR, I am doing VIS.
I am sure he will keep trying. Blind squirrel finds a nut eventually.
They are both doing the same thing. I give up. Got a couple of things to do anyway.
WAs the Long Island Express 1938 a direct NY hit or sideswipe, not sure just asking, I know its forward speed was like 60mph and it was 120mph cat 3 hurricane.
Just curious.
Well that is my concern. The person that sounds the alert is setting him/herself up for a big fall if nothing happens. Imagine displacing that many people, closing down the financial mecca of the world. My concern is that after their finished dotting all the i's and crossing all the t's it'll be too late. The political ramifications could be enormous
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