Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Ida's remnants pounding North and South Carolina; El Salvador flooding toll at 160
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 03:06 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009 +1
The remnants of Tropical Storm Ida have pushed off the coast of Georgia, and are adding fuel to a developing extratropical storm that is pounding North and South Carolina with heavy rain and high winds. Over two inches of rain has fallen across much of the region, and NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (Figure 1) predicts that up to eight inches of rain could fall in coastal North Carolina by Saturday. Adding to the rainwater flooding problems from all this rain will be coastal flooding from tropical storm-force winds of 40 mph expected to build tonight through Thursday along the Outer Banks of North Carolina. High tides up to four feet above normal are expected from the strong winds. North Carolina will end up getting a more severe pounding from Ida's remnants than Ida gave to the Gulf Coast. You can follow the storm with our Severe Weather Page.


Figure 1. Forecast precipitation for the 5-day period ending at 7 am EST Saturday November 14, 2009. Image credit: NOAA/Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

Invest 98L no threat
Another extratropical storm (Invest 98L), currently spinning over the Atlantic a few hundred miles northwest of Puerto Rico, is showing no signs of development, and will be entering a region of very high wind shear of 30 - 40 knots on Thursday. It currently appears that 98L will swing northward and northeast out to sea on Friday and Saturday, and not merge with the extratropical remnants of Ida currently pounding North Carolina.

Gulf Coast cleans up after Ida
Tropical Storm Ida left mostly minor damage across the Gulf Coast, with the heaviest damage being reported on the west end of Alabama's Dauphin Island. Roads there were covered with sand and water, and moderate beach erosion was reported. At Gulf State Park at Orange Beach, Alabama, the new fishing pier--the longest on the Gulf of Mexico--suffered heavy damage, and will be closed indefinitely. The pier was replaced after being destroyed by Hurricane Ivan in 2004, and just opened in July. "We may have significant losses," said Phillip West, Orange Beach coastal resources manager, discussing beach erosion from Ida. "Not catastrophic or devastating, but significant."

In the Florida Panhandle near Pensacola, Ida washed huge amounts of sand over Fort Pickens Road in Gulf Islands National Seashore, and over heavily traveled J. Earle Bowden Way, which connects Pensacola and Navarre beaches. Both roads are closed indefinitely. Fort Pickens Road was washed out by Hurricane Opal in 1995, and moved to a new location. Hurricane Ivan washed the road out in 2004. It was rebuilt, but was destroyed and rebuilt three more times in 2005, thanks to Tropical Storm Arlene and Hurricanes Cindy and Dennis. The most recent rebuilding of the road put it at a lower elevation, to allow sand to wash over it. It is hoped the cost of this latest repair will be under $1 million.

Editorial comment: perhaps having a low-lying road along a barrier island that regularly washes out, requiring millions in taxpayer repair money to fix, is a bad idea?? Seems to me like this is taxpayer money ill-spent. The 1988 Stafford Act, authorizing the rebuilding of damaged infrastructure after presidentially declared emergencies, has resulted in hundreds of millions of dollars in taxpayer money being spent to rebuild infrastructure damaged by tropical storms and hurricanes on barrier islands. In an era of rising sea levels, and with the U.S. in the midst of an active hurricane period expected to last at least another decade, the Stafford Act just doesn't make sense. Those living in areas subject to a very high level of repeated coastal hazards should pay the bills for their willingness to live in harm's way, rather than depending on Uncle Sam.

In a interview in the New York Times after the last time Fort Pickens Road was washed out, Dr. Orrin Pilkey, professor emeritus in the Nicholas School of the Environment at Duke University and author of the excellent 2009 book The Rising Sea, said, "People say, 'What are you going to do, let the road fall in? The correct answer, of course, is yes."

Food shortages in El Salvador after floods kill at least 160
A tropical disturbance that dumped up to 17.4" (442 mm) of rain in 24 hours over central El Salvador on Sunday has triggered the need for urgent food aid after flood and landslides destroyed huge swaths of crops during harvest season, according to the U.N. World Food Program. The storm killed at leat 160 people, with dozens more still missing. About 13,000 people are homeless after the disaster.


Figure 2. Collapsed bridge at Santa Cruz La Libertad, El Salvador, with people trying to cross the river. Image credit: Wunderphotographer DiegoSagrera

For those interested in making a donation to assist in disaster relief for El Salvador, Portlight.org has a Paypal donation page set up for this. All funds raised will be forwarded to José Luis Escobar Alas, Catholic Archbishop of San Salvador, and used to assist flooding victims at the discretion of the Archbishop.

Jeff Masters
Ida on Tuesday Pensacola Beach Pier (FatdaddyMead)
Tuesday morning as Ida passes through.
Ida on Tuesday Pensacola Beach Pier
()
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Reader Comments
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1. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 03:09 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
Nice update doc thanks almost time for a season review
Member Since: Ιούλιος 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40476
2. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 03:11 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
like ike of last year maybe ida will also be retired its the only likly one of the season
Member Since: Ιούλιος 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40476
3. CaicosRetiredSailor 03:12 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
Good to hear that 98L is going away... Thanks
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4. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 03:15 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
ya 98l will not be much if anything at all 19 days remain
Member Since: Ιούλιος 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40476
5. presslord 03:17 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
Editorial comment: perhaps having a low-lying road along a barrier island that regularly washes out, requiring millions in taxpayer repair money to fix, is a bad idea?? Seems to me like this is taxpayer money ill-spent. The 1968 Stafford Act, authorizing the rebuilding of damaged infrastructure after presidentially declared emergencies, has resulted in hundreds of millions of dollars in taxpayer money being spent to rebuild infrastructure damaged by tropical storms and hurricanes on barrier islands. In an era of rising sea levels, and with the U.S. in the midst of an active hurricane period expected to last at least another decade, the Stafford Act just doesn't make sense. Those living in areas subject to a very high level of repeated coastal hazards should pay the bills for their willingness to live in harm's way, rather than depending on Uncle Sam.

In a interview in the New York Times after the last time Fort Pickens Road was washed out, Dr. Orrin Pilkey, professor emeritus in the Nicholas School of the Environment at Duke University and author of the excellent 2009 book The Rising Sea, said, "People say, 'What are you going to do, let the road fall in? The correct answer, of course, is yes."


Yes! Yes! Yes!

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7. LBAR 03:19 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
Although flooding will be an issue downstream, we are jumping for joy here in the Raleigh area. We WERE 10" below normal rainfall for this year alone, not counting the past 3 years of overall dry soils. Hopefully, the ground will soak up most of the rain...it should. It's coming down at a steady, moderate clip.
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8. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 03:19 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
looks like a real quiet day on the blogs
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9. Jedkins01 03:22 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
dumb computers are always way off with the QPF, either way too high or too low haha, they aren't gonna get 8 inches up there, sure they'll get a real good heavy 2 to 4 inches, but not 8
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10. Orcasystems 03:22 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
Good Morning KOG...
If your Bored today.. go to Any Legion, or Army Navy Airforce Club... and throw so money on the Bar and buy a Vet a beer.



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
Member Since: Οκτώβριος 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077
11. largeeyes 03:23 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
That forecast precip is like a bullseye on my house.
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12. Drakoen 03:24 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
Quoting Jedkins01:
dumb computers are always way off with the QPF, either way too high or too low haha, they aren't gonna get 8 inches up there, sure they'll get a real good heavy 2 to 4 inches, but not 8


The 8 inches looks reasonable to me especially how the models are having it move very slowly up the coast almost stalling.
Member Since: Οκτώβριος 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010
13. Floodman 03:27 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
Quoting Jedkins01:
dumb computers are always way off with the QPF, either way too high or too low haha, they aren't gonna get 8 inches up there, sure they'll get a real good heavy 2 to 4 inches, but not 8


Were you thinking somehow that computers are smart? They only give as good as they get and they only do what you tell them to. Computers do not think, they do not catch mistakes (unless it's written into their programming) and they do not work well when given conflicting orders (typically called a crash). We programmers have an acronym: GIGO (Garbage in, Garbage out)...bad data results in bad conclusions
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14. lawntonlookers 03:28 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
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15. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 03:28 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
storm total ramping up fast some areas already at 3 inch totals

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16. TampaSpin 03:30 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
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18. largeeyes 03:32 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
Luckily eastern NC can take a LOT of rain before flooding becomes a big issue. Sure, local streams and poor drainage areas will be a problem, but the sounds and rivers, like the Neuse, very very rarely flood.
Member Since: Αύγουστος 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1380
19. kilgores97 03:32 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
And oh so many great things are tied to the Weather Underground......
Member Since: Ιούλιος 11, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 53
20. Orcasystems 03:33 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
Quoting kilgores97:
"When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering." If we cannot "bicker" then items shouldn't be posted by the head of the blog that create arguments. Like comments about such a rise in sea levels and global warming. While indeed the climate does change, hence the term climate change, man made global warming is a hoax, a scam simply to gain our tax dollars and take away liberties and freedoms. The Earth is in a period of cooling and it's proven that climate change is tied to solar activity. So while it's ok for the creator of this blog to make opinionated statements, it's not ok to rebuke them?
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21. pearlandaggie 03:34 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
reposted from last blog...

i've always felt that honorably discharged veterans should not have to pay income taxes as they've already paid their due...
Member Since: Σεπτέμβριος 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
22. watchingnva 03:34 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    


its just pouring between here near richmond and charlottsville....numbers adding up quick....
Member Since: Σεπτέμβριος 7, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1310
23. sarahjola 03:36 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
Quoting presslord:
Editorial comment: perhaps having a low-lying road along a barrier island that regularly washes out, requiring millions in taxpayer repair money to fix, is a bad idea?? Seems to me like this is taxpayer money ill-spent. The 1968 Stafford Act, authorizing the rebuilding of damaged infrastructure after presidentially declared emergencies, has resulted in hundreds of millions of dollars in taxpayer money being spent to rebuild infrastructure damaged by tropical storms and hurricanes on barrier islands. In an era of rising sea levels, and with the U.S. in the midst of an active hurricane period expected to last at least another decade, the Stafford Act just doesn't make sense. Those living in areas subject to a very high level of repeated coastal hazards should pay the bills for their willingness to live in harm's way, rather than depending on Uncle Sam.

In a interview in the New York Times after the last time Fort Pickens Road was washed out, Dr. Orrin Pilkey, professor emeritus in the Nicholas School of the Environment at Duke University and author of the excellent 2009 book The Rising Sea, said, "People say, 'What are you going to do, let the road fall in? The correct answer, of course, is yes."


Yes! Yes! Yes!


what about people who live in tornado prone areas, or earthquake prone areas, or drought prone areas, or wildfire prone areas? no matter where you live there is something that could happen. we are all tax payers even us on the coast. while i do not think that we should be repairing roads that are low lying, maybe we should be raising them. like they built the building to sway in earthquake prone areas, we need to do it right and have no more low lying roads. raise them once and only have to do ware and tare repairs from then on. as much stuff as they waste our tax dollars on, having to repair stuff after a disaster should be last on the list of things to complain about. its a waste of tax payer dollars if they just put it back the way it was, but its worth it if they make it better, or in this case higher. always remember a disaster can happen anywhere.
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24. Drakoen 03:37 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
Radar showing rainfall maxima near 6 inches in eastern Virginia already. Looks for those totals to increase.
Member Since: Οκτώβριος 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010
25. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 03:38 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    



some more totals
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26. HaboobsRsweet 03:39 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
Ida was def a good one to remember...I am just glad it spared the gulf coast. Hopefully the carolinas welcome the rain in times when droughts seem to be every where.
Member Since: Μάιος 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1640
27. stormy2008 03:41 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
Getting pretty breezy along the Virginia coast:

Conditions at CHYV2:

Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 40 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 35.9 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 39.0 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.01 in
Air Temperature (ATMP): 57.9 °F

There's been several gusts to 44 kts.
Member Since: Αύγουστος 18, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 215
28. watchingnva 03:42 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
Quoting Drakoen:
Radar showing rainfall maxima near 6 inches in eastern Virginia already. Looks for those totals to increase.
on radar it looks light where coming down where i am near richmond, but...umm...its coming down in buckets outside...lol
Member Since: Σεπτέμβριος 7, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1310
29. Floodman 03:42 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
Who'd have thought that out of the blue someone would beg to be ignored...LOL

**POOF!**
Member Since: Αύγουστος 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919
30. Floodman 03:43 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
Quoting pearlandaggie:
reposted from last blog...

i've always felt that honorably discharged veterans should not have to pay income taxes as they've already paid their due...


I agree...
Member Since: Αύγουστος 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919
31. tropicofcancer 03:44 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
Quoting Floodman:
Who'd have thought that out of the blue someone would beg to be ignored...LOL

**POOF!**


ROFL!!! I was waiting for you to say it!
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32. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 03:44 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
Member Since: Ιούλιος 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40476
33. Bonedog 03:46 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
Flood who we ignoring now? Haven't had to update my list lately LOL I think I will break 80 if I add another LOL
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35. Orcasystems 03:47 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
Ok, I have now seen everything :(
Goldsboro NC
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36. DrNo 03:47 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
QUOTING DR. MASTERS...

Seems to me like this is taxpayer money ill-spent. The 1968 Stafford Act, authorizing the rebuilding of damaged infrastructure after presidentially declared emergencies, has resulted in hundreds of millions of dollars in taxpayer money being spent to rebuild infrastructure damaged by tropical storms and hurricanes on barrier islands. In an era of rising sea levels, and with the U.S. in the midst of an active hurricane period expected to last at least another decade, the Stafford Act just doesn't make sense. Those living in areas subject to a very high level of repeated coastal hazards should pay the bills for their willingness to live in harm's way, rather than depending on Uncle Sam.

YES!!! All government should be reduced to almost nothing. Let individuals take care of themselves, and live with their choices.
37. largeeyes 03:48 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
It's hard to tell how hard it's raining when it's coming down at a 45 degree angle....
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39. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 03:49 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
heere are highest totals i could find

Member Since: Ιούλιος 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40476
40. Floodman 03:50 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
Quoting Bonedog:
Flood who we ignoring now? Haven't had to update my list lately LOL I think I will break 80 if I add another LOL


Hey bone, good seeing you again...

Check your mail...I don't want to be banned for talking about it in the open blog...LOL
Member Since: Αύγουστος 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919
41. AwakeInMaryland 03:51 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
Just did this as an academic exercise :)

1st, the entire blog rule, unedited (bold is mine):

Keep it civil. Personal attacks, bickering, flaming, and general trollish behavior will not be tolerated. Disagreements are fine, but keep them civil and short.

One online definition of bickering:
To engage in a petty, bad-tempered quarrel; squabble.

And so, seems okay to disagree with Dr. Masters, just keep it down to a dull (and civil) roar.
Member Since: Αύγουστος 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
42. Floodman 03:52 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
Quoting StormW:
30. Floodman 10:43 AM EST on November 11, 2009
Quoting pearlandaggie:
reposted from last blog...

i've always felt that honorably discharged veterans should not have to pay income taxes as they've already paid their due...


I agree...


Works for me, but then, we have to run the country somehow.


National sales tax (oh no, he said it!!!). While that would still hit vets (they could be issued cards that exempt them), it would be fair and no one could possibly say that anyone was paying less than anyone else. You buy something, you pay sales tax
Member Since: Αύγουστος 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919
43. Floodman 03:54 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
@41.

Well put, Awake...you're taking over my place as the voice of reason (LMAO)
Member Since: Αύγουστος 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919
44. Weather789 03:55 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
Rock on and stay groovy!!!
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Just did this as an academic exercise :)

1st, the entire blog rule, unedited (bold is mine):

Keep it civil. Personal attacks, bickering, flaming, and general trollish behavior will not be tolerated. Disagreements are fine, but keep them civil and short.

One online definition of bickering:
To engage in a petty, bad-tempered quarrel; squabble.

And so, seems okay to disagree with Dr. Masters, just keep it down to a dull (and civil) roar.
45. BobinTampa 03:56 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
Quoting pearlandaggie:
reposted from last blog...

i've always felt that honorably discharged veterans should not have to pay income taxes as they've already paid their due...


Well, you'd have to limit that to career military. Otherwise, everybody would do a 4-year stint after high school and we wouldn't have any money to pay them.
Member Since: Αύγουστος 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 508
46. nrtiwlnvragn 03:59 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
Pause to Remember at the 11th Hour of the 11th Day of the 11th Month (in your time zone)
Member Since: Σεπτέμβριος 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8922
47. AwakeInMaryland 03:59 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
Quoting StormW:
30. Floodman 10:43 AM EST on November 11, 2009
Quoting pearlandaggie:
reposted from last blog...

i've always felt that honorably discharged veterans should not have to pay income taxes as they've already paid their due...


I agree...


Works for me, but then, we have to run the country somehow.

LOL! I worked with many re-employed veterans, aka "double-dippers" in other gov. agencies. Really, there are some agencies that might not run without them. But believe me, you want them to pay their taxes, as they are still youngish when they retire (forty-ish) and can easily be currently making $80- to 100,000 in DC/MD/VA. So they'll have two retirement incomes. Most I know are pretty happy folks, worked hard, have good lives and know they're blessed...and don't gripe about paying taxes any more than the rest of us!
Member Since: Αύγουστος 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
48. Floodman 04:01 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Pause to Remember at the 11th Hour of the 11th Day of the 11th Month (in your time zone)


I will as I always do; my family has done this for many years
Member Since: Αύγουστος 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919
50. Bonedog 04:03 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
flood you have mail


looks like that 8+ inch QPF the computer spit out was right on track
Member Since: Ιούλιος 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
51. HurricaneNewbie 04:03 PM GMT on Νοέμβριος 11, 2009    
Quoting Floodman:


National sales tax (oh no, he said it!!!). While that would still hit vets (they could be issued cards that exempt them), it would be fair and no one could possibly say that anyone was paying less than anyone else. You buy something, you pay sales tax

Did I hear FAIR TAX. I know where Boortz lives and where he is moving to. I will just keep it to myself. I have listened to him for almost 20 years.
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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