Asia records its hottest temperature in history; Category 4 Phet threatens Oman

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 01:47 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 02, 2010

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A hellish heat wave hit Pakistan last week, sending the mercury to an astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) at the town of MohenjuDaro on Wednesday May 26, reported the Pakistani Meteorological Department. While this temperature reading must be reviewed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for authenticity, not only is the 128.3°F reading the hottest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan, it is the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded on the continent of Asia. This information comes to me courtesy of Chris Burt, the author of Extreme Weather, who is probably the world's foremost expert on extreme weather records. In a collaborative effort with weather record researchers Maximiliano Herrera and Howard Rainford, Mr. Burt has painstakingly researched the extreme weather records for every country on Earth. They list the previous reliable record high for Asia as the 52.7°C (127°F) temperature measured on June 12, 1919, in the Sindh province of Pakistan. Temperatures exceed 120°F in this region of Pakistan nearly every year, in the late May/early June time frame before the monsoon arrives. Last week's heat wave killed at least 18 Pakistanis, and temperatures in excess of 50°C (122°F) were recorded at nine Pakistani cities on May 26, including 53°C (127.4°F) at Sibi.

All-time hottest temperature for Southeast Asia this month
Record heat also hit Southeast Asia in May. According to the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Myanmar (Burma) had its hottest temperature in its recorded history on May 12, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu. Myanmar's previous hottest temperature was 45.8°C (114.4°F) at Minbu, Magwe division on May 9, 1998. According to Mr. Burt, the 47°C (116.6°F) measured on May 12 this year is the hottest temperature measured in Southeast Asia in recorded history.

Bogus extreme temperature records
I'm pleased to say that Chris Burt will be joining wunderground.com as a featured blogger later this year to discuss his work. He's working on a great new website that features weather records for each country of the world, complete with footnotes on disputed records. For example, many record books list Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature. Mr. Burt comments: "54°C (129.2°F) has widely been quoted as the highest temperature ever recorded in Israel (and Asia) but there exist serious issues with this record. The temperature was recorded on a thermograph at Tirat Zvi on 21 June 1942. Examination of a copy of this trace (see Bio-Climatic Atlas of Israel by Dr. D. Ashbel, Central Press, Jerusalem, 1950, p.125, Figure 1) actually shows a maximum temperature of 53°C (127.4°F). No explanation is known for this 1°C discrepancy. In comparison with surrounding stations, it is likely that the actual temperature recorded at Tirat Zvi on this data was probably no higher than 52°C (125.6°F), which would be a record high temperature for Israel. Temperatures have reached or exceeded 50°C (122°F) in Israel only during this one episode in 1942.


Figure 1. Temperature trace from Bio-Climatic Atlas of Israel by Dr. D. Ashbel, Central Press, Jerusalem, 1950, p.125 for Tirat Zvi, Israel, the week of June 21, 1942.


Figure 2. Zoom of temperature trace from Bio-Climatic Atlas of Israel by Dr. D. Ashbel, Central Press, Jerusalem, 1950, p.125, for Tirat Zvi, Israel, the week of June 21, 1942. The temperature clearly only reached 53°C, if one reads the graph properly. Thus the 54°C temperature labeled on the graph is not correct.

Mr. Burt comments in his Extreme Weather book that every temperature record for the planet in excess of 129°F can be disputed. All of these records, except for the 134°F recorded at Greenland Ranch in Death Valley, California, were made by French colonial era instruments which were found to be irregular as far as the exposure of the screens used to house the temperature instruments. In some cases, the temperature instrument was housed closer to the ground than it should have been. Mr. Burt will have an in-depth analysis of the evidence later this summer when he begins blogging for us.


Figure 3. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phet on Wednesday, June 2, 2010.

Tropical Cyclone Phet the 2nd strongest Arabian Sea storm on record
The record heat over southern Asia in May has helped heat up the Arabian Sea to 2°C above normal. The exceptionally warm SSTs have helped fuel a rare major hurricane in the Arabian Sea today, as Tropical Cyclone Phet underwent an impressive bout of rapid intensification this morning to become a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Phet is a Thai word pronounced as Pet, meaning "Diamond". Intense hurricanes are rare in the Arabian Sea, due to the basin's small size, the interference of the summer monsoon, and the frequent presence of dry air and dust from the Arabian Peninsula. Phet is now the second strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea, behind Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman. Third place is held by the 2001 India Cyclone 01A and Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ARB 01 (02A), which were Category 3 storms with 125 mph winds.

Phet is over some of the warmest ocean waters on the planet, 30 - 31°C (86 - 88°F), and warm waters in excess of 26.5°C (80°F) extend to a depth of at least 50 meters (165 feet), resulting in a Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential high enough to allow Phet to attain Category 5 status. Phet is under moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is forecasting Phet to become a Category 5 storm later today. The storm is moving slowly north-northwest towards Oman, and could ingest dry air from the Arabian Peninsula on Thursday, resulting in weakening. It now appears likely that Phet will make landfall in Oman before recurving to the northeast and hitting Pakistan. The region of Oman likely to get hit is sparsely populated, so wind and storm surge damage will not be the main concerns. Phet will spread heavy rains over the heavily populated northern regions of Oman, which will likely cause extreme flooding. Phet has the potential to be worse for Oman than Tropical Cyclone Gonu, which did $4.2 billion in damage and killed 50 people in June 2007.

Impact on Pakistan
Phet is on track to make landfall in Pakistan or Iran after hitting Oman. Phet will be much weakened by passage over Oman, and may only be a tropical storm after crossing the Gulf of Oman and arriving at the Iran/Pakistan coast. Still, Phet's rains could easily cause destructive floods in Iran and Pakistan.

The strongest tropical cyclone on record to hit Pakistan was Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ARB 01 (02A), which hit near Karachi on May 20, 1999, as a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. According to Wikipedia, 02A killed 700 people did $6 million in damage (1999 USD). I've also found references to a December 15, 1965 cyclone that killed 10,000 near Karachi, Pakistan.

Oil spill update
Moderate onshore winds of 10 - 20 knots out of the southeast to southwest are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico over most of the next week, resulting increased threats of oil to Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. These persistent southwesterly winds will likely bring oil as far east as Fort Walton Beach, Florida, by Monday.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll be back Thursday with more on Phet and an analysis of the new Colorado State University hurricane forecast issued by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray issued today.

Jeff Masters

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1734. PensacolaDoug
07:43 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 27, 2010
http://www.stormjunkie.com/xtreme/11 Goin' Fishin' Tonight mp3.mp3
Member Since: Ιούλιος 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
1733. PensacolaDoug
07:41 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 27, 2010
.
Member Since: Ιούλιος 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
1732. aspectre
03:11 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 04, 2010
In 2005, TropicalStorm Arlene reached near-hurricane strength in the Gulf of Mexico on June10th. And passed near what is now the DeepHorizon spill area before making landfall at the extreme western end of the Florida panhandle on June11th.
Comparisons with the day before TropicalStorm Arlene began spinning on 8June2005

3Jun2010

7Jun2005

3June2010

7Jun2005

3June2010


Other major US-affecting offshore blowouts averaged 8,000to10,000barrels per day over 10days at Santa Barbara, and 11,000to12,000barrels per day over 295days at Ixtoc I.
Initial spill rate from Ixtoc I into the Gulf of Mexico was ~30,000barrels per day.
The ExxonValdez wreck spilled ~11million gallons or ~262,000barrels in total.

Three different methodologies used by UnitedStatesGeologicalSurvey assessment teams have independently arrived at a minimum spill rate of 12,000barrels per day:
the surface survey team came up with 15,500plus-or-minus3500 barrels per day;
the plume velocity team came up with 18,500plus-or-minus6500 barrels per day;
and the third team's study remains incomplete and its methodology unannounced.

Using the agreed-upon 12,000barrels per day minimum, the DeepwaterHorizon will have spilled two times as much as the ExxonValdez a bit after noon on 3June2010
Using the 17,000barrels per day average of two studies, the DeepwaterHorizon will have spilled three times as much as the ExxonValdez before dawn on 6June2010
Member Since: Αύγουστος 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1731. stillwaiting
04:51 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 03, 2010
afternoon,when this gets area(feature over east tx) in the GOM its going to make the spill come ashore 10X what we've seen thus far,its got good vorticity at850mb and needs to be watched,as sheer in the extreme north GOM may go below20kts
Member Since: Οκτώβριος 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1730. gwadaman
04:22 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 03, 2010
Morning Storm, how r u today? I have been watching the wave at 50w 10n and have noticed considerable change over the last 6hrs, with sst at 30 and in a moist inviroment. I'm interested to know what info you could share on it.
Location: Barbados


Quoting StormW:
Good morning!
Member Since: Ιούλιος 8, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
1729. hurricanejunky
03:44 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 03, 2010
Quoting CycloneOz:
LOL...This Just In:

The current effort by BP to stop the gusher was the #1 method on their "to do list" after the Deep Horizon took the deep six.

But guess what?

The U.S. government said "NO! Try other methods before you cut that pipe!"

BP told the U.S. Government (and this is all in memos and will be released shortly) that the other methods available had low odds of success.

The U.S. government did not care about the odds.

Now, there's talk of the U.S. Government taking control of BP "in receivership!"

LOL!!! Unbelievable!

Sure there is blame to be put on BP for the accident even happening in the first place, but with these new revelations...who do you blame for ALL THESE DAYS (almost 60 now) of oil gushing from the Gulf floor?

If this latest attempt to stop the leak works, again...it was the #1 idea proposed by BP early on in this disaster, then the U.S. government is totally to be blamed for all the "extra oil" that's out there right now.


BP is the root cause of the problem - PERIOD. The government doesn't have the resources to deal with a 5k deep gusher. Only oil companies have the technology to deal with this issue. Quit trying to somehow link this to the government and make it political. The free market will take care of itself, right? We don't need the "socialist" government getting involved do we? I'm just holding you to your own standards...anyways, you don't care about the environment, remember? You pride yourself on "raping" the environment if my memory serves me correctly. Your friend,

Yin, or is it Yang?

Member Since: Αύγουστος 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2899
1728. gordydunnot
02:13 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 03, 2010
I don't exactly remember because it goes back and forth so much. But I could swear that BP posted odds have gone down with every attempt they have made. I have seen statements that the government has made that BP is in charge they are the experts, for which they have been roundly criticized. Watching 60 minutes with the father and brother of one deceased unlike RIG who held a memorial service for the fallen they have not received even a phone call from BP. So just remember all you BP lovers that oil and smell you have coming up on your shores is probably just leakage from the gulf floor. And if you get sick from it. Try cooking your food. And please tell the bad government to take the boot heel of there pour CEO's neck he wants his life back screw the rest of you.
Member Since: Αύγουστος 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
1727. Neapolitan
02:11 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 03, 2010
I ask because the only Google hits I find on "BP memo" are those talking about the May 25 one in which they compare their employees to the Three Little Pigs as a way to justify not instituting stronger spill-prevention measures (http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2010-05-25/shocking-bp-memo-and-the-oil-spill-in-the -gulf/)

Anyway, back to the weather...
Member Since: Νοέμβριος 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13728
1726. hercj
02:11 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 03, 2010
Quoting ncstorm:


the SO CALLED ENGINEERS havent done anything but INCREASE the flow of oil into the gulf..yall act like we should leave this up to BP but they havent accomplished a dang thang but killing more wildlife..destroying the barrier islands, and devastate the economy and people's way of life along the gulf coast..its easy to sit behind a computer and blame the government for everything (fox news) but the buck stops at BP..not the government..

Not if the Govt has been handcuffing and stonewalling this from the beginning. Why would they do that you ask? Why indeed!!!!
Member Since: Σεπτέμβριος 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319
1724. CyclonicVoyage
02:07 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 03, 2010
Quoting CycloneOz:
LOL...This Just In:

The current effort by BP to stop the gusher was the #1 method on their "to do list" after the Deep Horizon took the deep six.

But guess what?

The U.S. government said "NO! Try other methods before you cut that pipe!"

BP told the U.S. Government (and this is all in memos and will be released shortly) that the other methods available had low odds of success.

The U.S. government did not care about the odds.

Now, there's talk of the U.S. Government taking control of BP "in receivership!"

LOL!!! Unbelievable!

Sure there is blame to be put on BP for the accident even happening in the first place, but with these new revelations...who do you blame for ALL THESE DAYS (almost 60 now) of oil gushing from the Gulf floor?

If this latest attempt to stop the leak works, again...it was the #1 idea proposed by BP early on in this disaster, then the U.S. government is totally to be blamed for all the "extra oil" that's out there right now.



I would assume that this was the cause for concern on the Government side of things, a valid one too seeing how this cut and cap isn't going so well. 20% is a large increase in oil. The govt. made the right call, IMO.

The latest attempt to control the spill, the so-called cut-and-cap method, is considered risky because slicing away a section of the 20-inch-wide riser could remove kinks in the pipe and temporarily increase the flow of oil by as much as 20 percent.
Member Since: Ιανουάριος 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
1723. Prgal
02:07 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 03, 2010
New blog
Member Since: Σεπτέμβριος 7, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 921
1722. ncstorm
02:06 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 03, 2010
Quoting hercj:


Yeah Im with you, if this is going to be solved and it will be I am confident of this it will be done by engineers who will work on the fly and get this thing caped. It will NOT be by politicians making speeches or threats of prosecution. We can talk about all that later cap the damn hole.


the SO CALLED ENGINEERS havent done anything but INCREASE the flow of oil into the gulf..yall act like we should leave this up to BP but they havent accomplished a dang thang but killing more wildlife..destroying the barrier islands, and devastate the economy and people's way of life along the gulf coast..its easy to sit behind a computer and blame the government for everything (fox news) but the buck stops at BP..not the government..
Member Since: Αύγουστος 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16209
1721. CaneWarning
02:05 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 03, 2010
Quoting Patrap:
Gov. Bobby Jindal urges Obama to get deepwater drilling back quickly


By The Times-Picayune
June 02, 2010, 9:27PM


On Wednesday, Gov. Bobby Jindal sent the following letter to President Obama and Interior Secretary Ken Salazar regarding grave concerns about the administration's decision to place a moratorium on deepwater drilling:

Dear President Obama and Secretary Salazar:

I am writing to express my grave concerns regarding the severe economic impact of a six-month (or longer) suspension of activity at 33 previously permitted deepwater drilling rigs in the Gulf of Mexico, including and in particular the 22 deepwater drilling rigs currently in operation off the Louisiana coast.

Already, Louisiana has suffered severe negative economic and ecological impacts from the BP oil spill. Our seafood industry is experiencing huge economic losses that have only been partially mitigated by a frustratingly slow and inadequate BP claims process. Moreover, our precious wetlands are suffering incalculable, permanent damages, while our tourism industry faces escalating losses.

During one of the most challenging economic periods in decades, the last thing we need is to enact public policies that will certainly destroy thousands of existing jobs while preventing the creation of thousands more.

The Louisiana Department of Economic Development estimates that the active drilling suspension alone will result in a loss of 3,000 to 6,000 Louisiana jobs in the next 2-3 weeks and potentially over 10,000 Louisiana jobs within a few months. If the suspension of active drilling activity continues for an extended period, LED estimates that our state risks losing more than 20,000 existing and potential new Louisiana jobs in the next 12-18 months.

Obviously these losses would come on top of those already generated by the spill and its related effects. Moreover, the announced moratorium of deepwater drilling activity creates a significant risk that many of these drilling platforms would be relocated to other countries -- along with the hundreds of high-paying jobs that they each create.

Additionally, I fully understand the need for strict oversight of deepwater drilling. However, I would ask that the federal government move quickly to ensure that all deepwater drilling is in proper compliance with federal regulation and is conducted safely so that energy production and more importantly, thousands of jobs, are not in limbo.

Thank you in advance for your swift consideration of this request.

Sincerely,

Governor Bobby Jindal


I'm scratching my head over this one...
Member Since: Απρίλιος 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
1720. masonsnana
02:04 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 03, 2010
Quoting StormW:


Just some heavy T'storms associated with the low to the NW. Wouldn't look for anything, unless that low dips into the GOMEX and shear lets up.
Thank you as always
Member Since: Φεβρουάριος 14, 2004 Posts: 2 Comments: 664
1719. hercj
02:02 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 03, 2010
Quoting CycloneOz:


Just what kind of rip is that you're taking? Your biggest beef is that I "rounded up?"

Get real....

Quoting pottery:

All along, (at the risk of being called a "BP Sympathiser") I have felt that the Government has no expertise with this, and should leave the Oil Industry to deal with it. (Yeah, I hear all the "all BP wants is the oil" crap). This problem has no similarity to a Moon landing or a deep-sea movie.
Interference by Administrations all over the world, brought about by pressure from The Masses, has usually ended in tears.
The Admin should take complete control of the defenses to the shoreline and the clean-up and rehabilitation of affected areas etc.
Leave the professionals to stop the leak.

Yeah Im with you, if this is going to be solved and it will be I am confident of this it will be done by engineers who will work on the fly and get this thing caped. It will NOT be by politicians making speeches or threats of prosecution. We can talk about all that later cap the damn hole.
Member Since: Σεπτέμβριος 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319
1718. masonsnana
02:02 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 03, 2010
Quoting smarterthanyou:


'recent history'
suggests
otherwise
LOL
Member Since: Φεβρουάριος 14, 2004 Posts: 2 Comments: 664
1717. CycloneOz
02:01 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 03, 2010
Quoting smarterthanyou:


'recent history'
suggests
otherwise


My comeback was better than yours :D
Member Since: Αύγουστος 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 4020
1714. SomeRandomTexan
02:01 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 03, 2010
Quoting smarterthanyou:


"the press"
is not
a source


unless it fits "your" agenda right?

ok...
Member Since: Αύγουστος 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1857
1713. CycloneOz
02:01 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 03, 2010
Quoting Patrap:


LOL..

He's "Low and nimble"..

Dontcha know ?


Keep 'em coming...don't stop.
Member Since: Αύγουστος 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 4020
1712. smarterthanyou
02:00 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 03, 2010
Quoting CycloneOz:


??? (because I'm smarter than you?)


'recent history'
suggests
otherwise
1711. JFLORIDA
02:00 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 03, 2010


Also nrtiwlnvragn - Im not sure that report is indicative of climate research or an assessment of current research.

One thing I find also interesting is its second source :

2. IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (eds Solomon, S. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).
Member Since: Μάιος 22, 2006 Posts: 188 Comments: 24743
1708. CycloneOz
01:59 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 03, 2010
Quoting smarterthanyou:


if "they"
haven't reported it
then
How do you
know of it?!


??? (because I'm smarter than you?)
Member Since: Αύγουστος 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 4020
1707. smarterthanyou
01:58 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 03, 2010
Quoting CycloneOz:


The big question is are they going to take the bait and actually report on it.

Recent history says that they will not.


if "they"
haven't reported it
then
How do you
know of it?!
1706. smarterthanyou
01:57 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 03, 2010
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:


He gave the source...

BP memos that were leaked to the press...


"the press"
is not
a source
1704. CycloneOz
01:56 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 03, 2010
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:


He gave the source...

BP memos that were leaked to the press...


The big question is are they going to take the bait and actually report on it.

Recent history says that they will not.
Member Since: Αύγουστος 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 4020
1703. SomeRandomTexan
01:55 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 03, 2010
Quoting McBill:


Source?... Source?... He don't need no stinkin' sources.


He gave the source...

BP memos that were leaked to the press...
Member Since: Αύγουστος 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1857
1702. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
01:54 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 03, 2010
Quoting JFLORIDA:
I hate to even throw this out but I think advances in modeling may start to show increases in frequency.

maybe
and add a real evil smile behind it all.
Member Since: Ιούλιος 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55517
1701. masonsnana
01:54 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 03, 2010
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!
A little something from Bastardi:

The upper disturbance that is causing the heavy thunderstorms in the western gulf has some reason to be of concern for tropical weather people. We have to watch the area west of Panama to see if it gets drawn nnw into the gulf this weekend. Obviously if low pressure develops independent of that, with the upper low, that is also a concern, but it will be interesting to see if we get another Pacific development, and this time its way into our area of concern is the by moving nnw toward the western gulf, rather than northeast into the Caribbean.

The monster Cyclone PHET off Oman is yet another sign I am on the right track with the hurricane season. This is the 3rd development in the Indian ocean basin this year. When Asia heats more, the ITCZ gets drawn north into the continent ( this is the TRUE MONSOON, RATHER THAN THE RESEARCH GRANT BASED ONE THEY LOOK AT IN THE SOUTHWEST..Let me again state, you should not have up to 12 changes of air masses in a 3 month period in the summer as we see sometimes in the southwest US if you are in a monsoonal circulation. The upper ridge that forms over the rockies in the summer is the "high level heat source" in other words, the lack of wind in the ridge allows the building of heat over the mountains where dewpoints naturally come up in the summer, and convection forms which is mistaken for a monsoon.. the only true monsoon is in August on the central Mexican Pacific coast, where every morning at 2 am a thunderstorm will develop, and every day by 10 am its dissipating... Many summers there are as many air mass changes in Phoenix ( change of dp by morning than 10 degrees in a 24 hour period from one set time to another) as there are in Atlantic City. We dont have research grant money going to the study of the Atlantic City monsoon, though perhaps it would be a good idea to help their casino industry) In any case once the ITCZ is drawn north to over land, the Indian ocean season shuts down. With the cooling Pacific being below normal, it leaves the atlantic to come to life as the further north than normal monsoon means stronger waves further north than normal in Africa, and then their emergence off the African coast. At this time of the year, the waves coming off Africa do not "bloom" fully until further west, but there should be more than passing interest in the Indian Ocean Dipole along with the tropical activity there, for our season. This was outlined to me, though before there was research on the IOD, by Dr. John Lee at Penn State who lived and died by the intensity of the asian monsoon during the last warm AMO period which ended in the 50s., Sadly, when I took tropical, and during the 60s-80s the cold AMO would not allow the kind of vivid relationship we can see now, and I am confident you will see.
Good morning StormW. I was wondering about the blob in the GOM. What is your take on it?
Member Since: Φεβρουάριος 14, 2004 Posts: 2 Comments: 664
1700. McBill
01:52 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 03, 2010
Quoting Neapolitan:


Ummm...source?


Source?... Source?... He don't need no stinkin' sources.
Member Since: Δεκέμβριος 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 422
1699. CycloneOz
01:50 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 03, 2010
Quoting Patrap:
(almost 60 now)

How is 45 days 60 ?

Oh,,I se New Mexico math.

"Splains a Lot Lucy"




Just what kind of rip is that you're taking? Your biggest beef is that I "rounded up?"

Get real....
Member Since: Αύγουστος 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 4020
1698. racer925
01:50 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 03, 2010
The great debate Global Warming. I can come up with facts on both sides of the argument. I am an engineer, that took come meteorology classes as electives. The one thing I took from my classes is sometime around 2010 would be the peak of the hurricane active cycle. All I know is the increase of number of hurricanes and intensities was expected by climatologists in the 90's to rise during this time. I think what we all can agree upon is we all need to do our part in protecting the environment in any way possible.
Member Since: Σεπτέμβριος 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 48
1696. smarterthanyou
01:48 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 03, 2010
Quoting CycloneOz:


The memos in question have been leaked to the press by BP. (I assume in response to the announcement by the Justice Dept. that they were going to go after 'em.)



still no
source
1695. SomeRandomTexan
01:48 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 03, 2010
Quoting CycloneOz:
LOL...This Just In:

The current effort by BP to stop the gusher was the #1 method on their "to do list" after the Deep Horizon took the deep six.

But guess what?

The U.S. government said "NO! Try other methods before you cut that pipe!"

BP told the U.S. Government (and this is all in memos and will be released shortly) that the other methods available had low odds of success.

The U.S. government did not care about the odds.

Now, there's talk of the U.S. Government taking control of BP "in receivership!"

LOL!!! Unbelievable!

Sure there is blame to be put on BP for the accident even happening in the first place, but with these new revelations...who do you blame for ALL THESE DAYS (almost 60 now) of oil gushing from the Gulf floor?

If this latest attempt to stop the leak, again...the #1 idea proposed by BP early on in this disaster, then the U.S. government is totally to be blamed for all the "extra oil" that's out there right now.


Our "FINE" U.S. Government which has become a laughing stock to the world....

Good post OZ
Member Since: Αύγουστος 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1857
1694. pottery
01:48 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 03, 2010
Quoting CycloneOz:
LOL...This Just In:

The current effort by BP to stop the gusher was the #1 method on their "to do list" after the Deep Horizon took the deep six.

But guess what?

The U.S. government said "NO! Try other methods before you cut that pipe!"

BP told the U.S. Government (and this is all in memos and will be released shortly) that the other methods available had low odds of success.

The U.S. government did not care about the odds.

Now, there's talk of the U.S. Government taking control of BP "in receivership!"

LOL!!! Unbelievable!

Sure there is blame to be put on BP for the accident even happening in the first place, but with these new revelations...who do you blame for ALL THESE DAYS (almost 60 now) of oil gushing from the Gulf floor?

If this latest attempt to stop the leak, again...the #1 idea proposed by BP early on in this disaster, then the U.S. government is totally to be blamed for all the "extra oil" that's out there right now.

All along, (at the risk of being called a "BP Sympathiser") I have felt that the Government has no expertise with this, and should leave the Oil Industry to deal with it. (Yeah, I hear all the "all BP wants is the oil" crap). This problem has no similarity to a Moon landing or a deep-sea movie.
Interference by Administrations all over the world, brought about by pressure from The Masses, has usually ended in tears.
The Admin should take complete control of the defenses to the shoreline and the clean-up and rehabilitation of affected areas etc.
Leave the professionals to stop the leak.
Member Since: Οκτώβριος 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24784
1693. CycloneOz
01:47 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 03, 2010
As far as the receivership thing goes, there's tons of stuff out there on that already. Here's just one:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-reich/why-obama-should-put-bp-u_b_595346.html
Member Since: Αύγουστος 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 4020
1692. JFLORIDA
01:47 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 03, 2010
I hate to even throw this out but I think advances in modeling may start to show increases in frequency.
Member Since: Μάιος 22, 2006 Posts: 188 Comments: 24743
1691. twhcracker
01:47 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 03, 2010
Quoting P451:


BP should be obligated to slash the prices of their gasoline to the states of those directly affected by this.



then they would make 3 billion profit instead of 6 billion.
Member Since: Ιούλιος 30, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448
1689. CycloneOz
01:46 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 03, 2010
Quoting Neapolitan:


Ummm...source?


The memos in question have been leaked to the press by BP. (I assume in response to the announcement by the Justice Dept. that they were going to go after 'em.)
Member Since: Αύγουστος 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 4020
1688. JFLORIDA
01:45 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 03, 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


My inital response to you was to show that Dr. Landsea does publish and I have stayed out of this discussion since, untill this post. Nowhere in the article is the phrase "highly likely" used.


By extension :

Existing modelling studies also consistently project decreases in the globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones, by 6%u201334%. Balanced against this, higher resolution modelling studies typically project substantial increases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones, and increases of the order of 20% in the precipitation rate within 100 km of the storm centre.


That was mine perhaps incorrect format but "highly likely" (quotes were for my word which should have been added) but heres the mechanics :

"highly likely" (my words) "balancing" "consistently project decreases" as was stated.

Consistently would even indicate stronger wording IMHO
Member Since: Μάιος 22, 2006 Posts: 188 Comments: 24743
1687. Neapolitan
01:43 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 03, 2010
Quoting CycloneOz:
LOL...This Just In:

The current effort by BP to stop the gusher was the #1 method on their "to do list" after the Deep Horizon took the deep six.

But guess what?

The U.S. government said "NO! Try other methods before you cut that pipe!"

BP told the U.S. Government (and this is all in memos and will be released shortly) that the other methods available had low odds of success.

The U.S. government did not care about the odds.

Now, there's talk of the U.S. Government taking control of BP "in receivership!"

LOL!!! Unbelievable!

Sure there is blame to be put on BP for the accident even happening in the first place, but with these new revelations...who do you blame for ALL THESE DAYS (almost 60 now) of oil gushing from the Gulf floor?

If this latest attempt to stop the leak, again...the #1 idea proposed by BP early on in this disaster, then the U.S. government is totally to be blamed for all the "extra oil" that's out there right now.


Ummm...source?
Member Since: Νοέμβριος 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13728
1686. nrtiwlnvragn
01:41 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 03, 2010
Quoting JFLORIDA:
He had trouble with the commission's leadership and public statements after 2004 season and Katrina - not so much with the IPCC report(s).


Or at least in his resignation letter he didit state it clearly that he did.

ALSO In the study he put his name on they say are not sure as to frequency but an increase in intensity is highly likely.


My inital response to you was to show that Dr. Landsea does publish and I have stayed out of this discussion since, untill this post. Nowhere in the article is the phrase "highly likely" used.
Member Since: Σεπτέμβριος 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11301
1685. CycloneOz
01:37 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 03, 2010
LOL...This Just In:

The current effort by BP to stop the gusher was the #1 method on their "to do list" after the Deep Horizon took the deep six.

But guess what?

The U.S. government said "NO! Try other methods before you cut that pipe!"

BP told the U.S. Government (and this is all in memos and will be released shortly) that the other methods available had low odds of success.

The U.S. government did not care about the odds.

Now, there's talk of the U.S. Government taking control of BP "in receivership!"

LOL!!! Unbelievable!

Sure there is blame to be put on BP for the accident even happening in the first place, but with these new revelations...who do you blame for ALL THESE DAYS (almost 60 now) of oil gushing from the Gulf floor?

If this latest attempt to stop the leak works, again...it was the #1 idea proposed by BP early on in this disaster, then the U.S. government is totally to be blamed for all the "extra oil" that's out there right now.
Member Since: Αύγουστος 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 4020
1684. CaneWarning
01:37 PM GMT on Ιούνιος 03, 2010
Quoting twhcracker:


the last time they tried it in 200 feet of water it went on for nine months. watch rachel maddow show on msnbc, she is kickin butt this week.


Oh, I love Rachel Maddow. I bet she's really telling the truth about BP these days too.
Member Since: Απρίλιος 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667

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