Little change to 93L; Brazilian floods kill 42
There has been little change over the past 24 hours to the tropical wave (Invest 93L) located a few hundred miles south of Haiti. The storm has brought heavy rains to the waters south of Hispaniola, with radar precipitation estimates from the Puerto Rico radar of over six inches of rain in the past day. The heaviest rains have avoided land areas so far. Satellite loops show a very disorganized system, with no low-level spiral bands and only limited heavy thunderstorm activity. There are no signs of a surface circulation visible on satellite imagery. Pressures at the ground stations surrounding the storm (Bahahona and Kingston) are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, though there is a modest patch of dry air to the storm's southwest. This dry air is likely contributing to the lack of heavy thunderstorms on 93L's west side, slowing development. Wind shear is a low 5 - 15 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development, but close enough to provide good upper-level outflow for the storm. Visible satellite loops show high level cirrus clouds streaming away from 93L to the northeast, evidence of the upper-level outflow channel that is developing to the storm's north. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L continues to be the lack of spin. The University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing that spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude) has increased over the past day, but 93L needs to acquire additional spin before it can grow more organized. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 93L Thursday afternoon. Today's flight was canceled, due to 93L's lack of development.
Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.
Track forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Given the storm's current lack of spin and relatively modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, the earliest I'd expect 93L to become a tropical depression would be Thursday afternoon, with Friday more likely. Wind shear is expected to be low, less than 10 knots, over the central and western Caribbean this week. Water temperatures will be warm, dry air limited, and the MJO favorable. I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday, except for possible interaction with land. There is a low (less than 20% chance) of 93L becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and southwestern Haiti today through Thursday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday through Friday, and western Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Friday and Saturday. The current run of the SHIPS model has 93L slowing down late this week to a forward speed of just 7 knots (8 mph) from its current speed of about 10 mph, in response to a weakening in the steering currents. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the ECMWF, GFDL, and HWRF models. This seems like a likely solution, since recent runs of most of the models have been showing a stronger trough. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards towards the Texas coast. This is the solution of the NOGAPS and Canadian models, which foresee a more westerly track for 93L across the Yucatan Peninsula, with the storm eventually threatening Texas by Monday or Tuesday. The GFS and UKMET models do not develop 93L. A likely landfall location is highly uncertain this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast from South Texas to the Florida Panhandle given the current uncertainty in its development, and the strength of next Monday's trough that may steer 93L northwards.
Intensity forecast for 93L
Forecasting the amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is problematic. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf, and most of the models predict that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. This should allow 93L to intensify to at least a 50 mph tropical storm, as predicted by the HWRF model. The GFDL and ECMWF models are calling for 93L to become a Category 1 or 2 hurricane, and this is certainly a possibility. I expect 93L will become Tropical Storm Alex in the Gulf of Mexico next week, and give a 20% chance that it will become a hurricane.
Elsewhere in the tropics
None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days.
Figure 2. Total accumulated precipitation in millimeters (left) for the 7-day period ending at 8am EDT June 21, 2010. The yellow colors (200+ mm, 8+ inches) are where extreme flooding was observed. Satellite image from NASA's MODIS instrument (right) for June 17, 2010, showing heavy thunderstorms over the Alagoas state of Brazil. Image credit: NASA and NOAA Climate Prediction Service.
Floods in Brazil kill dozens
Heavy rains over the past week in the northeast state of Alagoas in Brazil have led to major flooding that has killed at least 42 people. Six hundred people are still missing. This weekend rains in Alagoas and Pernambuco states are the latest in a series of devastating floods to strike Brazil this year. Since the start of Brazil's rainy season last November, 488 people have been killed by flooding and 7.5 million have been affected in 10 states. Much of the heavy rains can be blamed on El Niño, which ended in May. In April, flooding and landslides triggered by torrential rain killed at least 229 people and did $13.3 billion in damage in the Rio de Janeiro area.
It's been a bad year for floods, and there are two other major flooding disasters that have occurred in the past week. In China, the death toll has risen to 211 people, with 119 people missing, because of flooding in the southern portion of the country. France suffered a flash flood last week that killed 25.
Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 10 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Sunday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.
Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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TORNADO WARNING
OHC005-077-139-231915-
/O.NEW.KCLE.TO.W.0031.100623T1830Z-100623T1915Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
230 PM EDT WED JUN 23 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN ASHLAND COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
SOUTHEASTERN HURON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
NORTHERN RICHLAND COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
* UNTIL 315 PM EDT
* AT 229 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF FITCHVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEW LONDON...
SAVANNAH...
BAILEY LAKES...
ASHLAND...
POLK...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. IF NO
BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR CLOSET.
&&
PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE. 1-877-633-6772. WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.
LAT...LON 4092 8264 4110 8259 4107 8233 4106 8232
4106 8218 4081 8212
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 281DEG 23KT 4099 8250
$$
ADAMS
If I remember correctly the fault line under the eastern US is larger than the San Adraius (spelling) but is located much deepr in the earths crust.
"amateur opinion" he says.
Hi Celia! Can you believe they're already up to the D storm, it's making our side look pretty pathetic.
I have been lurking on this site for 3 years and have posted maybe 5 or 6 times that I can recall (god knows how many if I had been drinking:)) Anyway I have felt compelled to say something for a long time.
There are several people that frequent this site in hopes of finding good information and insight into the development of systems and there projected impacts on communities across the hurricane region. If there were another blog that had the differing views and opinions that this one has I would probably surely visit it as it has become increasingly difficult to pull out the useful information from all the bantering and battering of eachother over who's right and who's wrong. Maybe some of you should become lurkers and learn that your egos don't matter here only good solid information worth discussing. Many of you get your feelings hurt if someone shows a differing point of view with the same amount of data as you have proving your point(s). If you sit back and listen and tell yourself you still have room to learn and grow you amy actually learn something that will help you become better contributers to this blog.
I will probably be called a troll for this post but I don't care. I enjoy the different points of view and think eachone should be looked at and weighed and then I make my own decision on which way I think things will go. Heck you all can't all be right all the time!
Yep...the 1811-12 event rang church bell sin Boston, some 1000 miles away
Yes and someone blocked the guy for down casting then someone nagged me about my pointing out there was too much upcasting going on...
Down casting is not popular here..it negates the sense of purpose...
Keep your weird belief systems to ourself...LOL
Chickens are disappearing from Key West, birds are acting strangely, crabs are walking around on decks, ants are building their nests on stilts, we have impending asteroid impacts, pterodactyls are crashing into windshields, 93L has been reclassified as a shuffling, lingering, waltzing, drifting, lurking, traipsing, wondering, roaming, meandering, lollygagging, drunken stooper, agonizing cyclogenesis.
And now for my new all time favorite weather quote of the day: "Earthworms come and go, but chickens are forever." (Floodman, June 23, 2010)
Back later with the latest updates.
R.R. :)
I thought the % given so far would indicate that is more probable that it wouldn't. Its been a bit since I studied statistics and I'm not a betting man so folks might want to consult with SkyPony.
Everyone knows dat.
2012 is going to happen...we don't have much time left!
LOL...
From the NHC, Storm, and other experts. Did you look at the surface forecast from the NHC? Where do they place the low? South and in 24 hours southwest of Jamaica.
wounder if mode runs say any thing about it
It keeps me awake at night.
And where is that surface low? Maybe south of Jamaica.......
What is disliked here are the once daily, or once weekly appearance of some to announce, in round and somber tones, that the season is over, regardless of current conditions or forecasts...
i think you may be right all along just so of cuba you can see new conv. getting larger this is where we might see the blow up
so as of now ill thow all the models out as this is new area to watch ty
Link
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