Act I, Scene I, Tropical Depression One of the Hurricane Season of 2010
Act I, Scene I, Tropical Depression One of the 2010 hurricane is at hand. The storm is already bringing heavy rains to northern Honduras, where 3.78" fell at Puerto Lempira, on the coast near the Nicaragua border. Recent satellite images show continued development of TD 1's heavy thunderstorm activity, and this depression appears to be a lock to intensify into Tropical Storm Alex by Saturday morning. I'll save a more detailed analysis for Saturday morning, and merely post some historical data on how similar storms have behaved over the past twenty years.
History of storms similar to TD 1
Dr. Jonathan Vigh of the National Center for Atmospheric Research has put together a brief synopsis of tropical cyclones (1989-2008) which formed near NW Honduras or east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or developed while over the Yucatan, or storms which were already formed but later hit the Yucatan Peninsula. Storms which formed late in the season and recurved into Cuba were not examined. Out of the 19 storms which hit the Yucatan, 8 went on to make a second Gulf Coast landfall in Mexico, 5 hit the U.S. Gulf Coast, and 6 died after hitting the Yucatan. A few storms formed while over the Yucatan and went in various directions. He makes a few notes about how passage over the Yucatan changed the radius of maximum winds (RMW) of the storms.
Storms that hit the Yucatan, then hit Mexico on the west side of the Gulf of Mexico:
Diana 1990: Developed E of Nicaragua, hit Yucatan as tropical Storm (TS), hit near Tampico as a hurricane. Normal decrease in RMW during intensification to hurricane: RMW droped from ~40 n mi to 15 n mi.
Gert 1993: Traveled as TD over Nicaragua, became a TS and then hit Belize, hit near Tampico as a hurricane. RMW 30-35 n mi during intensification.
Roxanne 1995: Formed east of Nicauragua, hit near Cozumel as hurricane, did some loops and then died in Bay of Campeche. RMW dropped from 30 n mi to 10 n mi before first Yucatan hit, then became very large for a day or two, then contracted down to 3 n mi, then became large again (>50 n mi), then contracted once more before storm died. Was doing several loops in Bay of Compeche during this time.
Dolly 1996: Formed west of Jamaica, hit south of Cozumel as hurricane, then hit MX as a hurricane. RMW increased from 7 to 40 n mi before Yucatan landfall, then afterwards decreased to 13 n mi as the storm intensified before 2nd landfall.
Keith 2000: Developed off NE Honduras, hit Belize as major hurricane, weakened to TD, then redeveloped and hit MX coast as hurricane. RMW decreased to 9 n mi before the rapid intensification, then increased to about 25 nm mi before landfall. Increased to 30 n mi by second landfall.
Emily 2005: Hit Yucatan as major hurricane, hit S of Brownsville as a hurricane. RMW increased from ~10 n mi before landfall, to about 30 n mi after Yucatan crossing, then decreased back down to 10-15 n mi by second landfall.
Stan 2005: Formed just SE of Cozumel, hit near there as TS, weakend to TD then shifted S and hit Bay of Campeche coast as hurricane, caused massive flooding. After Yucatan crossing, RMW decreased from ~40 n mi to about 5 n mi before 2nd landfall - normal progression.
Dean 2007: through Caribbean as hurricane, hit just N of Belize as major hurricane, hit near Tampico as hurricane. RMW was about 13 n mi before Yucatan landfall, then >40 n mi after before shrinking to 28 n mi by 2nd landfall.
Storms that hit the Yucatan, then hit the U.S. Gulf Coast:
Isidore 2002: Hurricane south of Cuba, hit W tip of Cuba then deflected into N Yucatan, inner core wiped out, then hit LA as a gigantic TS. RMW ~7 n mi before
Yucatan landfall, then off the scale afterward.
Bill 2003: Formed after traveling over Yucatan, hit LA as TS. Large RMW dropped to 12 n mi by LA landfall.
Claudette 2003: TS south of Hispianola, grazed tip of Yucatan as TS, hit near Corpos Christi as hurricane. RMW increased to >40 n mi BEFORE Yucatan landfall, then dropped to 20 - 35 n mi range afterward.
Cindy 2005: Hit Yucatan as TD, became TS day later, hit LA as hurricane. Little data, but RMW was 15-30 n mi by landfall.
Wilma 2005: Spent about a day over Yucatan, weakened and became very large, but RMW was little changed: 30-35 n mi before and after (eventually with much larger outer RMW).
Storms which died after hitting the Yucatan:
TD 8 1994 Formed near NE Honduras coast, hit Belize, died
Kyle 1996 Hit Belize as TS, died.
Katrina 1999 Developed E of Nicaurgua, hit as TS, hit Belize as TD, died
Chantal 2001 TS across Caribbean, hit Yucatan, deflected southward and died.
Iris 2001 Hurricane across Caribbean, hit Belize and died.
Arthur 2008 Formed just before hitting Belize as TS, died.
Storms that developed over the Yucatan:
Opal 1995: Developed over Yucatan, underwent rapid intensification, got a tight inner core, then weakened and hit FL as major hurricane of normal size. RMW was actually very small (5 n mi) a day after coming off the Yucatan, but increased to be quite large (25-35 n mi) before the rapid intensification period commenced and brought it back down to 7 n mi. RMW increased rapidly to >40 n mi right before landfall.
Gordon 2000: Developed over Yucatan, became hurricane then hit FL as TS north of Tampa. RMW increased from 5 n mi before Yucatan landfall, to 40 n mi afterward, then decreased back to 3 n mi during the subsequent intensification. Made landfall with RMW of 35 n mi.
Larry 2003: Formed after crossing top of Yucatan, hit south shore of Bay of Campeche as TS, died.
Gert 2005: Formed in Bay of Campeche after traveling over Honduras and Yucatan, hit MX as TS.
Jeff Masters
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He's simply just an active attendee of this blog. He is actually a great source of information as well.
"THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IN AN 0010 UTC
SSMIS PASS APPEARED DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION."
They aren't talking about re-location but instead motion.
I definitely agree.
That's a great read. After reading about what happened to Dr. Masters you'll realize that that's as close as you want to come......reading about it.
Possibly, since the GFS does broaden it out a bit. This would seem to indicate to me that the anticyclone weakens at 200 mb and above, and concentrates its remaining energy in the mid-levels.
It's far from the same thing.
That's true. Look at Katrina. She was high intensity and went through EWR just before making landfall. It amazingly could have been worse...
Eyewall replacement only happens with intense storms, relocation happens weak storms.
Sometimes.
But generally, the weakening is a direct result of the EWRC, not the other way around...
Thanks!
Indeed.
Haha I enjoy that this comment may have been just out of spite.
This is not correct in my opinion...it is just the opposite.
Link
Center looks to be around 17N 84W...Looks like it has jumped north and located under the new batch of deep convection.
On the discussion about relocating centers....tropical depressions and even tropical storms are not exempt from such an event. Hurricanes don't usually relocate their centers, but I have seen many strong tropical storms do it.
TD 1 could very possibly relocate slightly to the northeast as it is still trying to reel in that old piece of upper energy. That's why this morning in my blog I opined that strengthening of this would be gradual today and tonight, not explosive. It has everything coming together but still a few quirks to work out. The recon will show us whether the surface center has tried to shift or not.
I'm also not entirely sold on the straight jam west across the Bay of Campeche and right on into Mexico south of 24N like most of the models are starting to show....I think it could be farther north than that, but that is something I will investigate more in the morning. Too much calculus to do right now.
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ge/Recon_Data_for_the_Atlantic_Basin.kmz
Displaced means that it's not collocated with the deepest convection.
I just hope it clears out of the way before 4th of July weekend - we supposed to be traveling to Dallas for the weekend...
Thank you. lol
Yes. As a hurricane becomes more powerful the eye tends to contract. After a certain point it "collapses" for lack of a better word, and a new, larger eye is formed. While the storm weakens temporarily, this isn't a sign of impeding death-just about every major does this after a certain period. Often storms resume their earlier intensity. If an ERI happens in conjunction with land interaction, shear, etc. then the storm may weaken more quickly since it's more vulnerable in that position.
Just curious, where in Louisiana are you from? I'm near Intracoastal City.
You are absolutely correct although we have seen Weak Canes Jump its energy across land masses but not often....Thanks Levi!
Link
go to this link and turn the lights off in your room and understand this is what it is like in the eyewall of a cat 5 at 2 in the morning over the Caribbean. Enjoy.
its really windy here in SFL.. pressure gradient continues to get tighter
Correct.
It should also be noted that EWRC's, particularly the farther from the equator the hurricane is, typically broaden the associated wind field upon their completion.
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 JUN 2010 Time : 031500 UTC
Lat : 16:42:46 N Lon : 84:26:24 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1002.0mb/ 41.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 3.0 3.7
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb
Center Temp : -55.6C Cloud Region Temp : -57.6C
Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.83 ARC in LT GRAY
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
rwa T # isw up too 3.7
Exactly....that's what made Hurricane Katrina so big in the gulf.
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