Act I, Scene I, Tropical Depression One of the Hurricane Season of 2010
Act I, Scene I, Tropical Depression One of the 2010 hurricane is at hand. The storm is already bringing heavy rains to northern Honduras, where 3.78" fell at Puerto Lempira, on the coast near the Nicaragua border. Recent satellite images show continued development of TD 1's heavy thunderstorm activity, and this depression appears to be a lock to intensify into Tropical Storm Alex by Saturday morning. I'll save a more detailed analysis for Saturday morning, and merely post some historical data on how similar storms have behaved over the past twenty years.
History of storms similar to TD 1
Dr. Jonathan Vigh of the National Center for Atmospheric Research has put together a brief synopsis of tropical cyclones (1989-2008) which formed near NW Honduras or east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or developed while over the Yucatan, or storms which were already formed but later hit the Yucatan Peninsula. Storms which formed late in the season and recurved into Cuba were not examined. Out of the 19 storms which hit the Yucatan, 8 went on to make a second Gulf Coast landfall in Mexico, 5 hit the U.S. Gulf Coast, and 6 died after hitting the Yucatan. A few storms formed while over the Yucatan and went in various directions. He makes a few notes about how passage over the Yucatan changed the radius of maximum winds (RMW) of the storms.
Storms that hit the Yucatan, then hit Mexico on the west side of the Gulf of Mexico:
Diana 1990: Developed E of Nicaragua, hit Yucatan as tropical Storm (TS), hit near Tampico as a hurricane. Normal decrease in RMW during intensification to hurricane: RMW droped from ~40 n mi to 15 n mi.
Gert 1993: Traveled as TD over Nicaragua, became a TS and then hit Belize, hit near Tampico as a hurricane. RMW 30-35 n mi during intensification.
Roxanne 1995: Formed east of Nicauragua, hit near Cozumel as hurricane, did some loops and then died in Bay of Campeche. RMW dropped from 30 n mi to 10 n mi before first Yucatan hit, then became very large for a day or two, then contracted down to 3 n mi, then became large again (>50 n mi), then contracted once more before storm died. Was doing several loops in Bay of Compeche during this time.
Dolly 1996: Formed west of Jamaica, hit south of Cozumel as hurricane, then hit MX as a hurricane. RMW increased from 7 to 40 n mi before Yucatan landfall, then afterwards decreased to 13 n mi as the storm intensified before 2nd landfall.
Keith 2000: Developed off NE Honduras, hit Belize as major hurricane, weakened to TD, then redeveloped and hit MX coast as hurricane. RMW decreased to 9 n mi before the rapid intensification, then increased to about 25 nm mi before landfall. Increased to 30 n mi by second landfall.
Emily 2005: Hit Yucatan as major hurricane, hit S of Brownsville as a hurricane. RMW increased from ~10 n mi before landfall, to about 30 n mi after Yucatan crossing, then decreased back down to 10-15 n mi by second landfall.
Stan 2005: Formed just SE of Cozumel, hit near there as TS, weakend to TD then shifted S and hit Bay of Campeche coast as hurricane, caused massive flooding. After Yucatan crossing, RMW decreased from ~40 n mi to about 5 n mi before 2nd landfall - normal progression.
Dean 2007: through Caribbean as hurricane, hit just N of Belize as major hurricane, hit near Tampico as hurricane. RMW was about 13 n mi before Yucatan landfall, then >40 n mi after before shrinking to 28 n mi by 2nd landfall.
Storms that hit the Yucatan, then hit the U.S. Gulf Coast:
Isidore 2002: Hurricane south of Cuba, hit W tip of Cuba then deflected into N Yucatan, inner core wiped out, then hit LA as a gigantic TS. RMW ~7 n mi before
Yucatan landfall, then off the scale afterward.
Bill 2003: Formed after traveling over Yucatan, hit LA as TS. Large RMW dropped to 12 n mi by LA landfall.
Claudette 2003: TS south of Hispianola, grazed tip of Yucatan as TS, hit near Corpos Christi as hurricane. RMW increased to >40 n mi BEFORE Yucatan landfall, then dropped to 20 - 35 n mi range afterward.
Cindy 2005: Hit Yucatan as TD, became TS day later, hit LA as hurricane. Little data, but RMW was 15-30 n mi by landfall.
Wilma 2005: Spent about a day over Yucatan, weakened and became very large, but RMW was little changed: 30-35 n mi before and after (eventually with much larger outer RMW).
Storms which died after hitting the Yucatan:
TD 8 1994 Formed near NE Honduras coast, hit Belize, died
Kyle 1996 Hit Belize as TS, died.
Katrina 1999 Developed E of Nicaurgua, hit as TS, hit Belize as TD, died
Chantal 2001 TS across Caribbean, hit Yucatan, deflected southward and died.
Iris 2001 Hurricane across Caribbean, hit Belize and died.
Arthur 2008 Formed just before hitting Belize as TS, died.
Storms that developed over the Yucatan:
Opal 1995: Developed over Yucatan, underwent rapid intensification, got a tight inner core, then weakened and hit FL as major hurricane of normal size. RMW was actually very small (5 n mi) a day after coming off the Yucatan, but increased to be quite large (25-35 n mi) before the rapid intensification period commenced and brought it back down to 7 n mi. RMW increased rapidly to >40 n mi right before landfall.
Gordon 2000: Developed over Yucatan, became hurricane then hit FL as TS north of Tampa. RMW increased from 5 n mi before Yucatan landfall, to 40 n mi afterward, then decreased back to 3 n mi during the subsequent intensification. Made landfall with RMW of 35 n mi.
Larry 2003: Formed after crossing top of Yucatan, hit south shore of Bay of Campeche as TS, died.
Gert 2005: Formed in Bay of Campeche after traveling over Honduras and Yucatan, hit MX as TS.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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JSL Loop
1001mb is an estimate pressure but i think al least is less than 1004mb now an wind around 43kts so NHC advisory 5AM could be TS ALEX 1002mb 45mph
I'd say "bring it", but Mother Nature seems to have beat me to the punch. By October the mettle of all Americans will be tested in so, so many ways. =)/
You can just refresh that image (URL: link) or you can see a page that I created that keeps checking for new imagery from NASA here; link (I only use it because the one on the NASA site is extremely slow for me)
WTNT41 KNHC 260847
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
500 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE REPORTED 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 46 KT ABOUT 90
NM EAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH SUGGEST SURFACE WINDS OF NEAR 35 KT.
THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ON THE AIRCRAFT SHOWED A
LARGE AREA OF WINDS NEAR 35 KT THAT DID NOT APPEAR TO BE RAIN-
CONTAMINATED. BASED ON THIS...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM ALEX WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. THE
AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION OF ALEX REMAINS
BROAD...AND THAT THE RECENTLY REPORTED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB
MAY HAVE BEEN MEASURED IN A MESOSCALE LOW PRESSURE AREA. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED SFMR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT
WHICH APPEAR SUSPECT DUE TO RAIN CONTAMINATION.
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN...WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE OF
285/7. FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS ALEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AFTER THAT...THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AS A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN U. S. THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON HOW THIS EVOLUTION WILL AFFECT
ALEX. THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE GFDL SHOW ENOUGH OF A
BREAK IN THE RIDGE TO STEER ALEX NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF COAST. THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND UKMET SHOW THE RIDGE REMAINING
STRONG ENOUGH TO STEER ALEX GENERALLY WESTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO. THE HWRF AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD
SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...SO THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL BE NUDGED
WESTWARD AS WELL. HOWEVER...THE NEW TRACK IS STILL A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE VARIOUS
CONSENSUS MODELS. IT IS IN BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF.
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST ALEX TO BE NEAR OR UNDER A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AS A RESULT...
ALEX IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS LONG AS IT REMAINS OVER WATER.
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A 50 KT INTENSITY AS THE
CENTER REACHES THE COAST OF BELIZE OR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER LAND. THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND LGEM
MODELS FORECAST ALEX TO BE A HURRICANE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT YET DO THAT...BUT WILL CALL FOR
MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/0900Z 16.9N 84.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 26/1800Z 17.4N 86.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 27/0600Z 18.4N 88.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 27/1800Z 19.4N 89.5W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 28/0600Z 20.5N 90.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 29/0600Z 22.5N 92.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 30/0600Z 24.0N 94.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 01/0600Z 24.5N 95.5W 60 KT
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
This could get up to Hurricane status..
WTNT31 KNHC 260847
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
500 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ALEX...MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 84.9W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CANCUN
* THE ISLANDS OF ROATAN...GUANAJA...AND UTILA IN HONDURAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO THE BORDER OF
HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST. ALEX IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF ALEX WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS
POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE CIRCULATION OF ALEX CONSOLIDATES.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE
CENTER OF ALEX REACHES THE COAST OF BELIZE OR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS
1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EASTERN GUATEMALA...MUCH
OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE BAY
ISLANDS OF HONDURAS BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND REACH THE COAST OF
BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY
TONIGHT.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
I'm not trying to nitpick; I just want to understand what's happening. Is it that the satellite is being tricked into those cloud tops are warmer or are they actually warmer? Doesn't temperature begin rising rapidly as the atmosphere thins at extreme altitudes?
No. the higher up, the cooler. Hot Towers misnomer. Cold Tops better name.
cooler is bad.
WTNT41 KNHC 260847
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
500 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE REPORTED 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 46 KT ABOUT 90
NM EAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH SUGGEST SURFACE WINDS OF NEAR 35 KT.
THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ON THE AIRCRAFT SHOWED A
LARGE AREA OF WINDS NEAR 35 KT THAT DID NOT APPEAR TO BE RAIN-
CONTAMINATED. BASED ON THIS...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM ALEX WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. THE
AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION OF ALEX REMAINS
BROAD...AND THAT THE RECENTLY REPORTED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB
MAY HAVE BEEN MEASURED IN A MESOSCALE LOW PRESSURE AREA. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED SFMR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT
WHICH APPEAR SUSPECT DUE TO RAIN CONTAMINATION.
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN...WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE OF
285/7. FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS ALEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AFTER THAT...THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AS A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN U. S. THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON HOW THIS EVOLUTION WILL AFFECT
ALEX. THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE GFDL SHOW ENOUGH OF A
BREAK IN THE RIDGE TO STEER ALEX NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF COAST. THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND UKMET SHOW THE RIDGE REMAINING
STRONG ENOUGH TO STEER ALEX GENERALLY WESTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO. THE HWRF AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD
SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...SO THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL BE NUDGED
WESTWARD AS WELL. HOWEVER...THE NEW TRACK IS STILL A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE VARIOUS
CONSENSUS MODELS. IT IS IN BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF.
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST ALEX TO BE NEAR OR UNDER A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AS A RESULT...
ALEX IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS LONG AS IT REMAINS OVER WATER.
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A 50 KT INTENSITY AS THE
CENTER REACHES THE COAST OF BELIZE OR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER LAND. THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND LGEM
MODELS FORECAST ALEX TO BE A HURRICANE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT YET DO THAT...BUT WILL CALL FOR
MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/0900Z 16.9N 84.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 26/1800Z 17.4N 86.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 27/0600Z 18.4N 88.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 27/1800Z 19.4N 89.5W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 28/0600Z 20.5N 90.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 29/0600Z 22.5N 92.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 30/0600Z 24.0N 94.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 01/0600Z 24.5N 95.5W 60 KT
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Eh, I can't really explain further. I'm just relaying information from a previous comment. They stated that the satellite can't recognize the cloud tops when they are so high/cold. There's a maximum they'll recognize and it's reached and surpassed that maximum.
10% chance to be Hurricane in the next 24 hours
Ah -- thank you. :-)
Ok, thanks. Good night.
The 1004 mb fix was 7 nautical miles of the 25 June 14:15 Z Ascat fix. They were just looking in the wrong place, as I suggested during the first HH flight. The center has essentially not moved since the Ascat fix, only where people *think* it is has been moving around.
So, so welcome. ;-P
Let's hope. I don't think anybody knows that for sure right now.
This may be the usual DMAX hebe-jebies, or not.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DARBY (EP052010)
9:00 AM UTC June 26 2010
==================================
SUBJECT: "DARBY" Weakens Into A Category Two Hurricane
At 9:00 AM UTC, Hurricane Darby (966 hPa) located at 13.5N 102.7W or 260 NM south southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico has sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 5 knots.
Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 13.4N 104.1W - 85 knots (SVR Cyclone SSHS-2)
48 HRS: 13.9N 104.1W - 70 knots (SVR Cyclone SSHS-1)
72 HRS: 14.3N 103.3W - 55 knots (Tropical Storm)
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE CELIA (EP042010)
9:00 AM UTC June 26 2010
==================================
SUBECT: "CELIA Weakens Into A Category Two Hurricane
At 9:00 AM UTC, Hurricane Celia (974 hPa) located at 14.8N 119.7W or 765 NM southwest of the Southern tip of Baja California, Mexico has sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 9 knots.
Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 16.0N 123.1W - 55 knots (Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 16.3N 124.7W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
72 HRS: 16.4N 125.2W - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:30 AM IST June 26 2010
===================================
The low pressure area over north Orissa & neighborhood is likely to weaken during next 24 hours.
Later X.
How big it actually, I mean in Miles in circumference?
28.7n88.4w, TAM, MOB, PBI, SAL, 16.5N83.5W, 16.6N83.7W, 16.7N84.4W, 16.5N84.5W-16.9N84.9W
into the GreatCircleMapper. The red line shows the heading based on the last two positions.
Scroll below the map for the heading in degrees and for the distance.
I believe that you misunderstood. The earlier poster stated that -90 was about as cold as you can get. As you go to extreme altitudes the air actually does begin to warm. In this case, cloud tops close to -90 were pierced by a higher, warmer cloud top ... hence the red in the middle of the gray. An overshoot, producing warmer air due to extreme altitude.
IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED SFMR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT
WHICH APPEAR SUSPECT DUE TO RAIN CONTAMINATION.
Seems to be occupying roughly 10° of Lat and 10° of Long. So do the math. But remember each square varies greatly in area depending on how close it is to equator vs. pole.
Equator is more sq. miles per box.
Stupidly Gigantic.
Depending on how you treat the feeder bands, I make it to be about 900 miles in diameter. Multiply by pi gives you about 2800 miles circumference.
Things are pretty wet and windy here on Grand Cayman at the moment
so it's pretty big then. Just think if it filled in, would be a monster.
I wouldn't be surprised. Stay safe mate!
I think you are in for quite a bit more. This giant doesn't seem to be in any hurry to move, and it is growing and strengthening as it sits there. I'm quite concerned about just how strong it is going to become parked where it is, and what that means for its future direction. Meanwhile, keep your reinforced umbrella handy.
Yeah, I'm a tad worried about that at the moment. It's not lacking for surrounding moisture. As the low deepens, well, you know.
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