Act I, Scene I, Tropical Depression One of the Hurricane Season of 2010
Act I, Scene I, Tropical Depression One of the 2010 hurricane is at hand. The storm is already bringing heavy rains to northern Honduras, where 3.78" fell at Puerto Lempira, on the coast near the Nicaragua border. Recent satellite images show continued development of TD 1's heavy thunderstorm activity, and this depression appears to be a lock to intensify into Tropical Storm Alex by Saturday morning. I'll save a more detailed analysis for Saturday morning, and merely post some historical data on how similar storms have behaved over the past twenty years.
History of storms similar to TD 1
Dr. Jonathan Vigh of the National Center for Atmospheric Research has put together a brief synopsis of tropical cyclones (1989-2008) which formed near NW Honduras or east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or developed while over the Yucatan, or storms which were already formed but later hit the Yucatan Peninsula. Storms which formed late in the season and recurved into Cuba were not examined. Out of the 19 storms which hit the Yucatan, 8 went on to make a second Gulf Coast landfall in Mexico, 5 hit the U.S. Gulf Coast, and 6 died after hitting the Yucatan. A few storms formed while over the Yucatan and went in various directions. He makes a few notes about how passage over the Yucatan changed the radius of maximum winds (RMW) of the storms.
Storms that hit the Yucatan, then hit Mexico on the west side of the Gulf of Mexico:
Diana 1990: Developed E of Nicaragua, hit Yucatan as tropical Storm (TS), hit near Tampico as a hurricane. Normal decrease in RMW during intensification to hurricane: RMW droped from ~40 n mi to 15 n mi.
Gert 1993: Traveled as TD over Nicaragua, became a TS and then hit Belize, hit near Tampico as a hurricane. RMW 30-35 n mi during intensification.
Roxanne 1995: Formed east of Nicauragua, hit near Cozumel as hurricane, did some loops and then died in Bay of Campeche. RMW dropped from 30 n mi to 10 n mi before first Yucatan hit, then became very large for a day or two, then contracted down to 3 n mi, then became large again (>50 n mi), then contracted once more before storm died. Was doing several loops in Bay of Compeche during this time.
Dolly 1996: Formed west of Jamaica, hit south of Cozumel as hurricane, then hit MX as a hurricane. RMW increased from 7 to 40 n mi before Yucatan landfall, then afterwards decreased to 13 n mi as the storm intensified before 2nd landfall.
Keith 2000: Developed off NE Honduras, hit Belize as major hurricane, weakened to TD, then redeveloped and hit MX coast as hurricane. RMW decreased to 9 n mi before the rapid intensification, then increased to about 25 nm mi before landfall. Increased to 30 n mi by second landfall.
Emily 2005: Hit Yucatan as major hurricane, hit S of Brownsville as a hurricane. RMW increased from ~10 n mi before landfall, to about 30 n mi after Yucatan crossing, then decreased back down to 10-15 n mi by second landfall.
Stan 2005: Formed just SE of Cozumel, hit near there as TS, weakend to TD then shifted S and hit Bay of Campeche coast as hurricane, caused massive flooding. After Yucatan crossing, RMW decreased from ~40 n mi to about 5 n mi before 2nd landfall - normal progression.
Dean 2007: through Caribbean as hurricane, hit just N of Belize as major hurricane, hit near Tampico as hurricane. RMW was about 13 n mi before Yucatan landfall, then >40 n mi after before shrinking to 28 n mi by 2nd landfall.
Storms that hit the Yucatan, then hit the U.S. Gulf Coast:
Isidore 2002: Hurricane south of Cuba, hit W tip of Cuba then deflected into N Yucatan, inner core wiped out, then hit LA as a gigantic TS. RMW ~7 n mi before
Yucatan landfall, then off the scale afterward.
Bill 2003: Formed after traveling over Yucatan, hit LA as TS. Large RMW dropped to 12 n mi by LA landfall.
Claudette 2003: TS south of Hispianola, grazed tip of Yucatan as TS, hit near Corpos Christi as hurricane. RMW increased to >40 n mi BEFORE Yucatan landfall, then dropped to 20 - 35 n mi range afterward.
Cindy 2005: Hit Yucatan as TD, became TS day later, hit LA as hurricane. Little data, but RMW was 15-30 n mi by landfall.
Wilma 2005: Spent about a day over Yucatan, weakened and became very large, but RMW was little changed: 30-35 n mi before and after (eventually with much larger outer RMW).
Storms which died after hitting the Yucatan:
TD 8 1994 Formed near NE Honduras coast, hit Belize, died
Kyle 1996 Hit Belize as TS, died.
Katrina 1999 Developed E of Nicaurgua, hit as TS, hit Belize as TD, died
Chantal 2001 TS across Caribbean, hit Yucatan, deflected southward and died.
Iris 2001 Hurricane across Caribbean, hit Belize and died.
Arthur 2008 Formed just before hitting Belize as TS, died.
Storms that developed over the Yucatan:
Opal 1995: Developed over Yucatan, underwent rapid intensification, got a tight inner core, then weakened and hit FL as major hurricane of normal size. RMW was actually very small (5 n mi) a day after coming off the Yucatan, but increased to be quite large (25-35 n mi) before the rapid intensification period commenced and brought it back down to 7 n mi. RMW increased rapidly to >40 n mi right before landfall.
Gordon 2000: Developed over Yucatan, became hurricane then hit FL as TS north of Tampa. RMW increased from 5 n mi before Yucatan landfall, to 40 n mi afterward, then decreased back to 3 n mi during the subsequent intensification. Made landfall with RMW of 35 n mi.
Larry 2003: Formed after crossing top of Yucatan, hit south shore of Bay of Campeche as TS, died.
Gert 2005: Formed in Bay of Campeche after traveling over Honduras and Yucatan, hit MX as TS.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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One must drive carefully to avoid a flat
Yes they do. Bill Reid himself actually encouraged me to apply for one next summer.
TD-1 NASA MSFC viewer
LOL
Steering for once it hits TS status if not already.
He was hospitalized for "discomfort".
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
Early Model Wind Forecasts
I sure hope you guys are correct...i wouldnt want to wish it on Texas though..i can remember with Rita all the models were piled up on the Central Texas Coast when i went to school that morning...All i kept hearing all day was the track shifted east, east, east by the time i was driving home i had to fight the traffic of the people from the coast coming North...That day reminds me of one thing anything south of you needs to be watched!
Same thing to me haha.
Many remember TS Fay, that just kept going, a lot of time over land mass. The flat marshy areas actually fed the storm.
TD1 can take advantage of the energy from both sides of the peninsula.
Several have mentioned Wilma - that was a late storm that caught the tail end of a very strong cold front, there are not those type of steering currents present here. South Florid is not in the range for TD1.
Does appear that the central gulf states could be though. Not that I want anyone to be hit - but Mexico/Texas would be a much better situation for the oil spill.
Still thinking slightly west and Mexico/Belize border landfall, from there, not much of a clue.
thats a golden rule if you are in LA and TX
Excellent point, Storm. I remember back in 1992 with Hurricane A, all the news media were talking about a recurvature way out to sea because of a trof moving off the ERN CONUS... what happened? Beeline to SFla.
So what are you exactly trying to say Storm?? lol Good evening all
And then a step to right.
Put yer hands on yer Hips..
My Old Grandfather use to tell me that as a child when i was into hurricanes...Path through the Keys...breathe with ease...Coming off the Yucutan...have a plan
hmmmm, never heard that saying....good one though.
Very large spread in the models, not much in terms of a final landfall agreement.
Oh my compare that TD to Hurricane Darby!The TD beats the heck out of it in size!
Always listen to the old people! Sometimes it seems they knew more than us
He/she is a he. And he is not only witty but also very informative
Patrap - very pretty.
Don't go out on a limb now... lol. I'm just meesin with you. It's surprisingly slow in here this evening.
dragon-convection in the center starting to chase its own tail.
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