97L continues to grow more organized; headed for Bahamas and Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 07:07 PM GMT on Ιούλιος 20, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic has continued to become more organized today, and is a threat to develop into a tropical depression as early as Wednesday morning. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra and Vieques islands over the past day, and all of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today. The storm could bring an additional 3 - 6 inches of rain to the islands over the next two days. The upper level low centered a few hundred miles north of the Dominican Republic is no longer bringing high levels of wind shear to 97L; wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, which should allow 97L to continue to develop today. Satellite images of 97L show a moderate area of steadily organizing thunderstorms, with curved bands developing to the north and east of the center. There are no signs of a surface circulation on satellite imagery or on the 10:38am EDT ASCAT pass. Surface observations show only light winds over Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, but the surface winds at Punta Cana on the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic have shifted to the west this afternoon, indicating that a surface circulation may be forming just north of that location. Long-range radar loops from San Juan do not show any evidence of a surface circulation. The Hurricane Hunter mission scheduled for today was canceled, but is scheduled to fly Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Total precipitation from 97L as predicted by the 12Z (8 am EDT) July 20, 2010 run of the HWRF model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today and Wednesday, and to Haiti on Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will begin moving into eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and South Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive as early as Thursday night. The latest suite of model runs from 8am EDT this morning (12Z) foresee a more northerly track for 97L into Central Florida. Several models develop 97L into a tropical storm, with both the GFDL and HWRF models predicting 97L will hit South or Central Florida as a tropical storm on Friday. Most of the models have 97L entering the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, but the amount of time 97L has over the Gulf may be limited to a day or less if the storm ends up exiting into the Gulf near Tampa Bay. The NOGAPS model predicts a more southerly path across South Florida and into Louisiana.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
One factor potentially aiding development of 97L will be the Madden-Julian oscillation, which currently favors upward motion over the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. Also in favor of development are the warm ocean temperatures of 29°C. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. The primary detriment to development of 97L over the next three days will probably be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. If the center forms close to the coast of the Dominican Republic, the high mountains of Hispaniola may also be a problem for the storm. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development today or on Wednesday is unlikely, due to the dry air over the Bahamas. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 30%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over land or interacting with land over the next four days, which is very uncertain.

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on my blog during the show. You can also email the questions to me today before the show: jmasters@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line. Some topics I'll cover today on the show:

1) Invest 97
2) A look ahead at the coming two weeks

Today's show will be about 45 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting scott39:
I thought that was funny last night, but i dont get how it applies to my post. I was trying to learn about intensity models. To be honest with you i dont know why they post intensity models on an invest at all!
the picture, in this case as in last night, was not really meant to be funny. You questions, and the same question by others, have been asked over and over and over...you could go to almost every page of each blog since this was tagged 97L and you will see the answer to your questions, and similar questions as to track and intensity for location from Florida to Mexico...the answer does not change. No, the models can not, to any certainty, predict the intensity 24 hours out let alone 5+ days out...and at this point in 97's life, the track the models show is hard enough to predict (which is why they constantly change). Didn't mean to jump at you but this is what Storm got so frustrated at the other day. the same questions are asked repeatedly and answers are given repeatedly and the same questions just keep getting asked.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Don't Cry Please.....NO Crying allowed in Baseball or WU ........LOL.....j/k


Gotta love the WU community!!! LOL
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Quoting truecajun:


tracy, under severe weather, clidk on tropical and hurricanes, then click on computer models for 97L. every dot is 12 hours. i looked at it earlier, but i was only measuring LA and MS. model landfall there is on Monday or Tuesday if i remember correctly.


I actually did do that and didn't like what I came up with...lol....since I am a novice I asked so I could be sure.

I did send this link to dad to make him aware of it. Just want my "babies" home!

THANK YOU SO MUCH EVERYBODY!!
Tracey
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Another day in the books at 1-1-0.

I have to admit, I am rather surprised. Lower levels are struggling tonight.
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2274. Patrap
I smell smoke..

wait.

thats the New Runs crunching
Member Since: Ιούλιος 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting zoomiami:



who? hehehe

Where's Pottery tonight -- we are missing his own brand of humor
Pottery has no humor....opps did I say that out loud.....LOL
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2271. scott39
Ive got to go take some castor oil, ill be back in a minute!
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Quoting Grothar:


Well, if it is 60% that it will be a storm, I would say the chances are 40% it won't be. Of course I could be wrong. LOL


What a true Mathmatical mind you have.....LMAO....LOL
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2269. will45
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
What are the odds that 97L never closes off a low and is never named?

GFS keeps it pretty weak then drops it after it hits FLA
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Looks like the Blog is finally slowing down.....breathe....LOL
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2267. Grothar
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
What are the odds that 97L never closes off a low and is never named?


Well, if it is 60% that it will be a storm, I would say the chances are 40% it won't be. Of course I could be wrong. LOL
Member Since: Ιούλιος 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26889
Quoting Orcasystems:

The Boxes... the Doors... the Who...



who? hehehe

Where's Pottery tonight -- we are missing his own brand of humor
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Quoting msgambler:
LOL Evening Orca
I listen to Classic Rock all day, plus they have Jb & Billy on in the morning but I do like a little R&B and a little rap once in awhile.
As for you, take those boxes out of your pics. I already told you about that.

The Boxes... the Doors... the Who...
Member Since: Οκτώβριος 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
2264. xcool
tomany people in chat room
Member Since: Σεπτέμβριος 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2263. Buhdog
Skyeony

I have been a member since 2005 and mostly lurk, I must commend you for having the most unique links, pics, and articles. I find you as well the most underrated blogger in the house. You are greatly valued. Cape Coral here ready to go...generator ready...pull over shutters ready. prepare for worse...hope for best
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2262. Grothar
We should be seeing yellow in these images soon. If hot towers beging building, it is getting stronger. Nothing yet. The tops seem to be getting knocked off.

Member Since: Ιούλιος 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26889
any sloppy LLC is about 50 miles north of PR IMO,looked better last night,however in time 12-36hrs we'll have TD3 and more than likely bonnie,right now the usual inhibiting factors of TC development sheer and dry air are doing just that,for the short time being;)
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2260. JLPR2
Quoting EricSFL:


It's right next to Montehiedra (southern municipality of San Juan).


Ah that one sounds bigger bell :P
So far I haven't heard any news of floods in the metropolitan zone so I guess they are ok, as of now the east and I believe the west coasts are the ones affected, the middle, north and south have only received small amounts of rain.
Member Since: Σεπτέμβριος 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
LOL Evening Orca
I listen to Classic Rock all day, plus they have Jb & Billy on in the morning but I do like a little R&B and a little rap once in awhile.
As for you, take those boxes out of your pics. I already told you about that.
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2258. scott39
Quoting hunkerdown:
its time again...

I thought that was funny last night, but i dont get how it applies to my post. I was trying to learn about intensity models. To be honest with you i dont know why they post intensity models on an invest at all!
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Quoting pipelines:
obs reports from san jose PR indicate winds coming from the south east. This tells me there is absolutely no surface circulation to speak of in the near vicinity. It does appear though there is an upper level circulation forming (per HDW wind barbs) north of PR, it is hard to see though due to strong influence of the ULL to the NW. That's why you see a lot of the convection/precipitation streaming to the NW but some appears near stationary.

A lot of the convection seen is associated with the interaction of the wave with the ULL and is not self sustaining



This is very true. But the possiblity is in play and could very well change by tommorrow.
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2255. JRRP

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Quoting Patrap:
Oooofh..

NEXRAD Radar
San Juan, Storm Total Surface Rainfall Accumulation Range 124 NMI


THATS WHAT WE BEEN SAYIN!!!! hahahah
Good night all.....
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Quoting hunkerdown:
its time again...



ohhhh nooooo, that poor little stick man. that is disturbing. laughing but concerned.
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2252. Patrap
Somewhere a Hurricane Chase Plan is being noodled and planned..

Hmmmm?
Member Since: Ιούλιος 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Alright then can you tell which beach you are going to secure or would you have to shot me first.
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2250. Patrap
Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: Ιούλιος 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Yeah but kids don't know what real music should sound like. They look at ya funny when ya say The Stones or Zep or God forbid The Doors....LOL...But a little rap isn't bad once in a while. Keeps ya young.


I do a lil rappin' in December and on birthdays. Tried a few other times, but always left me lighter in the wallet, never did feel any younger either. ;P
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Quoting msgambler:
Yeah but kids don't know what real music should sound like. They look at ya funny when ya say The Stones or Zep or God forbid The Doors....LOL...But a little rap isn't bad once in a while. Keeps ya young.


Hey... I like those bands.. including the Doors :)

BTW rap is only missing one letter to be a real word :)
Member Since: Οκτώβριος 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
look it's a Dragon!!
From bouy data and sat
Ok no pressure drop, no circulation except a hint of a start north of the Mona on the afternoon ASCAT..
Looks like 97L is still simply moving all the warm moist air from the Caribbean to the Atlantic and doing a fine job of it..
Serious convergence near St Kitts on the newest ASCAT
Check in the Morning for a circulation near the Navidad Bank
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2246. 7544
this is one biggggggggggg wave
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obs reports from san jose PR indicate winds coming from the south east. This tells me there is absolutely no surface circulation to speak of in the near vicinity. It does appear though there is an upper level circulation forming (per HDW wind barbs) north of PR, it is hard to see though due to strong influence of the ULL to the NW. That's why you see a lot of the convection/precipitation streaming to the NW but some appears near stationary.

A lot of the convection seen is associated with the interaction of the wave with the ULL and is not self sustaining
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2243. EricSFL
Quoting JLPR2:


It rings a bell but I'm not sure and San Juan is just next to me, jeez, I should start going around LOL.


It's right next to Montehiedra (southern municipality of San Juan).
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2242. tkeith
Guess I'll call it a night...might have to get up and help Ike find his glasses in the mornin...
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Quoting Funkadelic:
Loltake this with a grain of salt but my son, just informed me that there is a song by the raper eminem, entitled: "97 Bonnie and Clyde" haha get it 97 and bonnie in the same song?? I dont advise anyone to listen to it as there is a ton of vulgarity in :/ I hate that my son listen's to that crap. I try to teach him the classic rock like the stones and zeppelin.

How is 97L doing as of almost midnight EST?


Funny piece of americana you have here - and I'm sure your parents had something they considered my classical than your rock...lol
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UNISYS View:


Puerto Rico NWS Radar:




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2238. JRRP
Tornado Vortex Signature
north of PR
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Quoting Funkadelic:
Loltake this with a grain of salt but my son, just informed me that there is a song by the raper eminem, entitled: "97 Bonnie and Clyde" haha get it 97 and bonnie in the same song?? I dont advise anyone to listen to it as there is a ton of vulgarity in :/ I hate that my son listen's to that crap. I try to teach him the classic rock like the stones and zeppelin.

How is 97L doing as of almost midnight EST?
Yeah but kids don't know what real music should sound like. They look at ya funny when ya say The Stones or Zep or God forbid The Doors....LOL...But a little rap isn't bad once in a while. Keeps ya young.
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Quoting happybrats3:


I am just worried about the DAY it is expected to hit the gulf states. I know a lot is speculation right now as to the path,(long time lurker here), but if it does hit MS/AL or the Panhandle....then we'll have issues with getting the kiddoes home.

So I just needed to "know" what day...if that is a possibility to know at this point.

Tracey



It would be atleast a week if it did impact the Gulf coast maybe longer.

Unfortunately, it is impossible to forecast that far out accurately.

I would not worry too much though. if it tracks across Fla
it would likely be weak and not much of a threat under the
current forecasts. Stay ahead of the game by staying
Informed but right now it doesnt look to be much of a
gulf threat but as always that could change.
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2235. xcool
Member Since: Σεπτέμβριος 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2234. JLPR2
Quoting EricSFL:


How is the neighborhood of Caimito (If you're from San Juan) doing? It is very vulnerable to landslides.


It rings a bell but I'm not sure and San Juan is just next to me, jeez, I should start going around LOL.
Member Since: Σεπτέμβριος 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
2233. Patrap
Quoting tkeith:
I'm takin off on the 19th Pat...that teleporter could get awful crowded with the contra-flow...


LOL

I got a Plaza Level Family Pass..
Member Since: Ιούλιος 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
2232. scott39
Quoting StormW:


97L SPECIAL UPDATE ISSUED 9:00 P.M. JULY 20, 2010
I hope that light wind shear map in the central GOM changes to a high wind shear. That scenerio does not look good. Informative as always, Thanks StormW
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Quoting truecajun:


tracy, under severe weather, clidk on tropical and hurricanes, then click on computer models for 97L. every dot is 12 hours. i looked at it earlier, but i was only measuring LA and MS. model landfall there is on Monday or Tuesday if i remember correctly.


great advice -- I find myself sitting there counting the little clicks
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2230. Patrap
Oooofh..

NEXRAD Radar
San Juan, Storm Total Surface Rainfall Accumulation Range 124 NMI

Member Since: Ιούλιος 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
2228. xcool
wxgeek723 haha
Member Since: Σεπτέμβριος 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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