97L continues to grow more organized; headed for Bahamas and Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 07:07 PM GMT on Ιούλιος 20, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic has continued to become more organized today, and is a threat to develop into a tropical depression as early as Wednesday morning. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra and Vieques islands over the past day, and all of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today. The storm could bring an additional 3 - 6 inches of rain to the islands over the next two days. The upper level low centered a few hundred miles north of the Dominican Republic is no longer bringing high levels of wind shear to 97L; wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, which should allow 97L to continue to develop today. Satellite images of 97L show a moderate area of steadily organizing thunderstorms, with curved bands developing to the north and east of the center. There are no signs of a surface circulation on satellite imagery or on the 10:38am EDT ASCAT pass. Surface observations show only light winds over Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, but the surface winds at Punta Cana on the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic have shifted to the west this afternoon, indicating that a surface circulation may be forming just north of that location. Long-range radar loops from San Juan do not show any evidence of a surface circulation. The Hurricane Hunter mission scheduled for today was canceled, but is scheduled to fly Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Total precipitation from 97L as predicted by the 12Z (8 am EDT) July 20, 2010 run of the HWRF model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today and Wednesday, and to Haiti on Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will begin moving into eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and South Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive as early as Thursday night. The latest suite of model runs from 8am EDT this morning (12Z) foresee a more northerly track for 97L into Central Florida. Several models develop 97L into a tropical storm, with both the GFDL and HWRF models predicting 97L will hit South or Central Florida as a tropical storm on Friday. Most of the models have 97L entering the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, but the amount of time 97L has over the Gulf may be limited to a day or less if the storm ends up exiting into the Gulf near Tampa Bay. The NOGAPS model predicts a more southerly path across South Florida and into Louisiana.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
One factor potentially aiding development of 97L will be the Madden-Julian oscillation, which currently favors upward motion over the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. Also in favor of development are the warm ocean temperatures of 29°C. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. The primary detriment to development of 97L over the next three days will probably be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. If the center forms close to the coast of the Dominican Republic, the high mountains of Hispaniola may also be a problem for the storm. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development today or on Wednesday is unlikely, due to the dry air over the Bahamas. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 30%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over land or interacting with land over the next four days, which is very uncertain.

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on my blog during the show. You can also email the questions to me today before the show: jmasters@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line. Some topics I'll cover today on the show:

1) Invest 97
2) A look ahead at the coming two weeks

Today's show will be about 45 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Jeff Masters

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Hi Storm, it's Tuesday, and I am back like I said I would be. I read everything you posted and now I guess it's just a wait and see. I am so hoping that we can get through this class reunion without any of this hitting us. Do you really think that this track could be a great possibilty and what time frame? I know that's asking alot. Thanks for all you do.
Member Since: Ιούλιος 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 324
1677. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting IKE:
Link


Link

wrong week
Member Since: Ιούλιος 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55517
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
No. 97L is not forecast to take a path like Jeanne. Jeanne did the big loop to the east of FL.


landfall point is being projected exactly the same by the current models.
Member Since: Ιούλιος 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 524
1657. TropicalNonsense 1:36 AM GMT on July 21, 2010

Pot meet kettle lmao

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
so when will we see TS COLIN and TS DANEYLLE I have a feeling that these two will be huricanes or strong TS


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CosmicEvents:
The oil is calamitous enough, but the dispersant scares me more. I surely wouldn't be eating any raw oysters right now unless the source was somehow guaranteed 100% dispersant-free.

Just buy Australian oysters, 100% dispersant free and they taste beautiful.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting EYEoftheCANE:
So the track shifted north to SEFL - I guess I better go get gas & water tonight before the rush.

southeast fla still have not said anything..channel 7 have not started the 24 hr weather mode yet
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1671. Dakster
Quoting StormW:


Is that an oxymoron?

j/k


More like restating the obvious...
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1670. gator23
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
00z "official" track.


Looks like Bonnie, wants to meet Lebron
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1669. Patrap
Haiti getting Pounded near Port Au Prince

WunderMap®

Save or send this map to someone as you see it now. Link to current view.
Member Since: Ιούλιος 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129408
I've read NHC two's. That's always first.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS LEFT IN ITS WAKE EXTENDING FROM 22N67W TO 16N66W. STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ARE ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN 60W-70W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA...EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS WHERE TERRAIN HAS BECOME SATURATED.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA ALONG 75W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE PASSED OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO...PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AS IT INTERACTED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS CONVECTION REMAINS OVER THOSE AREAS AND IS NOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE WAVE IS NOW ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pat, Betsy was the first storm I remember. Was in Slidell as my dad was @ boeing. after the Saturn program ended, he got a job @ ingalls & we moved to MS just in time for Camille. relocated to STX in "75" I moved to S.FL. in "79" he was blown to Homestead by Hugo.280th st. Well then "92". I've been in the Keys full time since "97". There's actually more to this story but... We both seem to be hurricane magnets.
Member Since: Αύγουστος 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 695
1666. JRRP


Member Since: Αύγουστος 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6209
Quoting Orcasystems:


Ummmmm

Not sure how to take that aquak9

mmmmmmmm

Taco :o)
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Quoting aquak9:


That's just your point of view. For him, you just stayed back.
hahahahaha
Member Since: Αύγουστος 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5672
1662. scott39
How long Stormw
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so when will we see TS COLIN and TS DANEYLLE I have a feeling that these two will be huricanes or strong TS
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1660. Patrap
JSL Image



JSL2 enhancement - developed by Jim Lynch for use with tropical classifications
Member Since: Ιούλιος 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129408
1658. FLdewey
Quoting aquak9:


That's just your point of view. For him, you just stayed back.


<---- chokes on his Leinenkugel
Member Since: Αύγουστος 19, 2008 Posts: 42 Comments: 6269
Quoting Hurricanes101:


yea I think my point was you have to wade through so much to get to the actual helpful information

I guess that makes me the bad guy lol


your not bad. you just whine to much. Like every single post.

dive into some tropical talk and learn some tolerance for
other bloggers.
Member Since: Ιούλιος 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 524
1656. scott39
Quoting StormW:


I believe when we get into full swing with this Cape Verde season, you shouldn't see the ULL's...maybe closer to the western Caribbean and GOMEX (Dean, Felix, etc.)
Do you think this ULL is going to stay parked for another 48 hours?
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1655. centex
Quoting Chicklit:


Feels like groundhog day.
I got you babe.
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Quoting aquak9:
hi becca! who needs supplies when ya got crabs!



Ummmmm
Now where did I put that halo polish
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Water vapor shows that the environment to the west of 97L is moistening up causing less dry air.
Member Since: Σεπτέμβριος 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting IKE:


Unlikely from what I've read from experts.

the experts gave a 60 percent chances sounds pretty likely to me
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Thats what I was thinking, or Frances mostly IMO because the track never took a loop near the bahamas leaving everyone in FL on edge.



yes. Frances/Jean Type of deal. Just no loop or funny stuff.
a straight line Florida hit.
Member Since: Ιούλιος 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 524
1650. Dakster
Quoting aquak9:
hi becca! who needs supplies when ya got crabs!



That's just wrong...
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Quoting Patrap:


The shimmer of Breaking Dawn on the Dispersant does nothing for my mood..

or can we use Dawn on the Dispersant..?


Im so confused

The oil is calamitous enough, but the dispersant scares me more. I surely wouldn't be eating any raw oysters right now unless the source was somehow guaranteed 100% dispersant-free.
Member Since: Αύγουστος 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5672
Quoting CosmicEvents:
As you know, it's hard to get at the meat of the issue after reading through most of the blog in hip-waders, but there's been some marked improvement in the structure today. Albeit, this was expected, but still, it's a signifigant change. Read the NHC TWO'S, or the blogs from some members here. I particularly recommend Weatherguy03's video blog.


yea I think my point was you have to wade through so much to get to the actual helpful information

I guess that makes me the bad guy lol
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1647. Dakster
Quoting EYEoftheCANE:
So the track shifted north to SEFL - I guess I better go get gas & water tonight before the rush.


I beat you to the punch. Just filled up the cars and a bunch of 5 Gal. jugs.

Bad thing is that it is already windy and rainy out in SFL, which will hinder being able to get ready if 97L decides to visit and intensify.

BTW - What are the chances for RI once the storm forms? IIRC, the water temps are high and the TCHP should be as well. Just the upper air environment is a hinderance?
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1646. aquak9
Quoting FLdewey:
I had a dog named perspective once, but he ran away.


That's just your point of view. For him, you just stayed back.
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Quoting FLdewey:
So boring dhaddy.

Key West Webcams show the normal inappropriate activity... nothing exciting.

Virgin islands webcam
Username: public
Password: weather
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00z "official" track.

Member Since: Σεπτέμβριος 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting DestinJeff:


NO KIDDING.. a blog is NO PLACE for opinions!



Let me guess ... that is your opinion? [Laughs]
Member Since: Ιούλιος 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 524
Quoting Chicklit:


Feels like groundhog day.


Far from it
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1640. Patrap
Member Since: Ιούλιος 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129408
1639. aquak9
hi becca! who needs supplies when ya got crabs!

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1638. IKE
Wait a minute...I know you...you're Kareem Abdul Jabbar
Member Since: Ιούνιος 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1637. Patrap




Member Since: Ιούλιος 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129408
Quoting TropicalNonsense:
97L is looking to take a similar path as Hurricane Jean in 2004 ...




Thats what I was thinking, or Frances mostly IMO because the track never took a loop near the bahamas leaving everyone in FL on edge.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


I missed this earlier... our ISP here, (xCable & Wireless, now "Lime") being on an island, has always had excellent standby power. The DSL and phones stayed up through Hanna/Ike, when we had mains power failures for several days.

(and at that time the "Cable" provider who sells highspeed internet had NO b/u generator)
After Ivan we had better service with Digicel although I normally use Lime. My cell, landline, internet is all Lime but bought a cheap Digi phone after Ivan and since gave it away.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
No. 97L is not forecast to take a path like Jeanne. Jeanne did the big loop to the east of FL.
Plus 97L isn't going to be going that far north with a ridge building in...
Member Since: Σεπτέμβριος 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Chicklit:
I skipped about 12 hours of discussion on the blog, but I don't see a lot of difference in 97L between now and 24 hours ago.
As you know, it's hard to get at the meat of the issue after reading through most of the blog in hip-waders, but there's been some marked improvement in the structure today. Albeit, this was expected, but still, it's a signifigant change. Read the NHC TWO'S, or the blogs from some members here. I particularly recommend Weatherguy03's video blog.
Member Since: Αύγουστος 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5672
So the track shifted north to SEFL - I guess I better go get gas & water tonight before the rush.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1631. FLdewey
I had a dog named perspective once, but he ran away.
Member Since: Αύγουστος 19, 2008 Posts: 42 Comments: 6269
Storm if your still around thanks for update, my question to you would be after the last couple of years do think we will see a storm that isn't being menaced by a ull. Thank God they are but it makes forecasting near impossible IMO.
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:


Those are the Wind Speeds and times I am going with . If personal forecast are not allowed on this blog then I will be glad to remove it. Thanks James
Yes they are allowed but please make it obvious by writing "IMO" or "JMO" or "JMHO" or whatever you like, just please make it obvious.

Don't know who James is...lol.
Member Since: Σεπτέμβριος 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194


Feels like groundhog day.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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