97L continues to grow more organized; headed for Bahamas and Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 07:07 PM GMT on Ιούλιος 20, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic has continued to become more organized today, and is a threat to develop into a tropical depression as early as Wednesday morning. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra and Vieques islands over the past day, and all of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today. The storm could bring an additional 3 - 6 inches of rain to the islands over the next two days. The upper level low centered a few hundred miles north of the Dominican Republic is no longer bringing high levels of wind shear to 97L; wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, which should allow 97L to continue to develop today. Satellite images of 97L show a moderate area of steadily organizing thunderstorms, with curved bands developing to the north and east of the center. There are no signs of a surface circulation on satellite imagery or on the 10:38am EDT ASCAT pass. Surface observations show only light winds over Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, but the surface winds at Punta Cana on the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic have shifted to the west this afternoon, indicating that a surface circulation may be forming just north of that location. Long-range radar loops from San Juan do not show any evidence of a surface circulation. The Hurricane Hunter mission scheduled for today was canceled, but is scheduled to fly Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Total precipitation from 97L as predicted by the 12Z (8 am EDT) July 20, 2010 run of the HWRF model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today and Wednesday, and to Haiti on Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will begin moving into eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and South Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive as early as Thursday night. The latest suite of model runs from 8am EDT this morning (12Z) foresee a more northerly track for 97L into Central Florida. Several models develop 97L into a tropical storm, with both the GFDL and HWRF models predicting 97L will hit South or Central Florida as a tropical storm on Friday. Most of the models have 97L entering the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, but the amount of time 97L has over the Gulf may be limited to a day or less if the storm ends up exiting into the Gulf near Tampa Bay. The NOGAPS model predicts a more southerly path across South Florida and into Louisiana.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
One factor potentially aiding development of 97L will be the Madden-Julian oscillation, which currently favors upward motion over the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. Also in favor of development are the warm ocean temperatures of 29°C. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. The primary detriment to development of 97L over the next three days will probably be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. If the center forms close to the coast of the Dominican Republic, the high mountains of Hispaniola may also be a problem for the storm. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development today or on Wednesday is unlikely, due to the dry air over the Bahamas. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 30%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over land or interacting with land over the next four days, which is very uncertain.

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on my blog during the show. You can also email the questions to me today before the show: jmasters@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line. Some topics I'll cover today on the show:

1) Invest 97
2) A look ahead at the coming two weeks

Today's show will be about 45 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Jeff Masters

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I'm sticking to my original theory. We'll have ourselves a tropical storm by tonight & we'll see this take a north easterly turn & hit the carolinas as a major hurricane.
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Quoting Twinkster:
I hate to post something off topic in such an active period but can you guys see my posts?


Yes, and I'm filtered on "average."
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1075. FLdewey
Twinkster? Really?

Worst... handle... ever.
Member Since: Αύγουστος 19, 2008 Posts: 42 Comments: 6269
1074. whs2012
Thanks TropicalNonsense! :D
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE
EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WESTWARD TO HISPANIOLA.
ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF
HISPANIOLA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OR STORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...
EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.



Don't post that if it is not real. I don't have the 8:00 pm TWO yet. If you are indeed making that up, you could/probably will get banned
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Thanks for the answers to my wife's model questions. This place is hopping so fast it is hard to keep up!

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I predict 97L will wind up in my toilet and then I will flush it to the GOM where it will cross Florida 3 more times. It will then do a loop-de loop and hit the northeast somewhere.

This prediction is as good as any in my opinion right now.

Member Since: Αύγουστος 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 497
1067. xcool


Member Since: Σεπτέμβριος 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1066. whs2012
I also want to see what that wave off the coast of the Yucatan will do once it emerges in the Gulf. Will it interact with 97L? hmmm....
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good evening every one!
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Quoting whs2012:


Yes, I understand, but why are you trying to tell people what they can and can't say? NONE of you are experts, minus a few. YES, I trust you over tv mets (lol), but people are just saying where they think it'll most likely go, there's no harm in that. The models are all over the place right now (statistical). According to the models, 97L can go anywhere from SE texas to Florida. We make our assumptions based on what we see with the models, and what you guys are saying about ridges and ULL and what not. I don't think you should tell people what to say though, I understand it's annoying, but this isn't your blog, just ignore the post.


He is known for that! ... Just Ignore him enough and he
will just go away. You have to be Vigilant with the I
know Everything - "Trolls". Dont let people on this blog
get to you! You have every right to make your post, same as
they do as long as it's reasonable.
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Link

Lots of Info and Maps here
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Quoting Twinkster:
I hate to post something off topic in such an active period but can you guys see my posts?

Nope
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1061. FLdewey
Quoting hunkerdown:
nope, pay before you pump...


LOL!

Well shift.

Local mets seem to think Florida Straits... I'm starting to lean the same way. It's obviously way too soon to tell for sure, but I guess I'll go kick on the sprinklers.

Hmmmm... Maybe, just maybe if I wrap myself in a shower curtain and sing the FIU fight song on my roof.
Member Since: Αύγουστος 19, 2008 Posts: 42 Comments: 6269
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
1023. ChillinInTheKeys 6:16 PM CDT on July 20, 2010
Government: Seepage near BP cap coming from another well.Retired Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen also said five leaks in and around BP's well are more like "drips," and aren't yet reason to worry.



Yeah, buddy. I wonder if ol' Thad would mind too much if I happened to linger over his carpet at home with just a little drip! 5 leaks in and around? Hhhhmmm, seems that at least that combined would constitute more than just a "drip!" Geeeesh, so what else is leaking? What are we doing? Are the other 4 leaks from wells? Who do they belong to? How long have they been leaking? Is anything being done to stop them?

I'm sorry, I've had respect for ol' Thad through all this, but it's definitely waning.
It's probably a methane bubble underneath the surface causing pressure???
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1059. jeebsa
Sun is going down, convection seems to be flaring up even more.
Any significance?
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1058. whs2012
I think we will see 97L turn into a TD by tomorrow at noon. :/ You never know though, if he prolongs strengthening any longer, he will be moving on a more westerly track. The models say he's going to die out in the GOM? Are the conditions unfavorable? Or is it just because it's so early?
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Information About Disturbance (Invest 97L)

Storm information valid as of: Tuesday, July 20, 2010 18:00 Z
Coordinates: 19.5N 68.2W (View Map or View Storm Centered Satellite Image)
Location: 131 miles (211 km) to the ENE (57°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
Distance Calculator: How far away is this storm from me?
Pressure (MSLP): 1012 mb (29.89 inHg | 1012 hPa)
Sustained wind speed (1 min. avg.): 30 knots (35 mph | 15 m/s)







Information valid as of: Tuesday, July 20, 2010 18:00 Z
Storm Number: 97L
Level of tropical cyclone development: Disturbance (This information is sometimes inaccurate.)
Isobar details: The last closed isobar has a pressure of 1014 mb. (29.95 inHg | 1014 hPa) The radius of the last closed isobar is 150 nautical miles (173 miles | 278 kilometers).
Radius of Max Winds: 60 nautical miles (69 miles | 111 kilometers)
System Depth: Medium

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1056. ocal44
Iam on Ocala FL,Love this sight
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1023. ChillinInTheKeys 6:16 PM CDT on July 20, 2010
Government: Seepage near BP cap coming from another well.Retired Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen also said five leaks in and around BP's well are more like "drips," and aren't yet reason to worry.



Yeah, buddy. I wonder if ol' Thad would mind too much if I happened to linger over his carpet at home with just a little drip! 5 leaks in and around? Hhhhmmm, seems that at least that combined would constitute more than just a "drip!" Geeeesh, so what else is leaking? What are we doing? Are the other 4 leaks from wells? Who do they belong to? How long have they been leaking? Is anything being done to stop them?

I'm sorry, I've had respect for ol' Thad through all this, but it's definitely waning.
Member Since: Ιούλιος 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
Quoting Twinkster:
I am personally going to disregard the models until after the hurricane hunters find a closed low and take samples of upper air environment.

Especially with a disturbance I tend to focus on the 00Z and 12Z model set as they tend to do better than the 06Z and 18Z model set.

Regardless everyone in the Bahamas, south Florida from the keys up to about port st. lucie should watch this system.

It is way too early to begin talking about possible intensities and landfalls in the GOM


Just throw the models in the garbage. :)
Member Since: Αύγουστος 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 497
Quoting FLdewey:


No buy-here-pay-here sort of deals eh?
nope, pay before you pump...
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The Wunderground home page models shows some type of storm hitting corpus christi at about 54 hours. Is this reliable or no?
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Yeah, right.... they said Top Kill would work, then they said Top Hat would work....
No, I won't worry, not one little bit. After 90+ days what's a little worry???
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
Government: Seepage near BP cap coming from another well.Retired Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen also said five leaks in and around BP's well are more like "drips," and aren't yet reason to worry.
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Thanks StormW...we always read your posts for info!
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1048. xcool
MiamiHurricanes09 :0
Member Since: Σεπτέμβριος 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1047. FLdewey
Quoting DestinJeff:
Opinions accepted with approved credit only.


No buy-here-pay-here sort of deals eh?
Member Since: Αύγουστος 19, 2008 Posts: 42 Comments: 6269
1046. tkeith
Quoting HideawayOnTheGulf:


Good question, I'm curious too (okay, she's my wife and we BOTH would like to know).

Thanks!
I've always heard that after you've been married for awhile your WU handles start to look alike :)

StormW, has the answer to your question...
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Quoting Patrap:
Introduction

Technical Attachment

AN OVERVIEW OF NHC PREDICTION MODELS

Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) have a variety of prediction models available to provide guidance for their forecasts of tropical cyclone tracks and intensity. The intent of this paper is to provide a brief overview of each of the models. Forecasters may find this information helpful when considering NHC discussions which mention the performance of individual models. A primary reference is provided after the summary of each model for readers who desire more information. NOTE: All thumbnail graphics in this Web document are linked to larger version of the graphics. Just click the thumbnail to view the larger version.

As noted by Neumann (1979), models for the prediction of tropical cyclone motion and intensity may be classified as either statistical or dynamical. Statistical models rely on what has happened-the climatology of past storms, for example. Dynamical models can be classified as either barotropic or baroclinic. Statistical-dynamical models are an intermediate class that incorporate numerically forecast data into a statistical prediction framework, similar to the Model Output Statistics used to provide guidance for specific parameters such as temperature and probability of precipitation.


Pat, I am a "newbie" here and learning. Thanks for posting this regarding model definitions/explanations. Got my homework cut out for me. Again, much appreciated.
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I got that sarcasm Patrap - just a little late on the response. Gotta drop Press a line one of these days. He made a cameo here on the blog a few days ago under Portlight of course.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Suggest you learn the difference between the 900hpa layer and surface winds, which the last time I checked surface winds are the criteria.

i should i know it but on post 981 u said it dissipates it
Member Since: Ιούλιος 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
Quoting xcool:
MiamiHurricanes09 yayy
Lol.

Be back in a bit...
Member Since: Σεπτέμβριος 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1035 just replace 97l w/ BP and it still holds true.
Member Since: Αύγουστος 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 695
firms in Miami are dusting off their business continuity plans today. Charge up the laptops, folks!
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I hate to post something off topic in such an active period but can you guys see my posts?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


I certainly hope I'm not one of inaccurate! Lol.
Maybe there is some truth in what you say, but unfortunately for you and others that share your opinion this is a free weather blog and there is not a rule that extrictly says: "Only met, or weather experts allowd, others will be ban".You just have to get familiar with the so call "experts", and ignore the others.
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Quoting Seamule1:
in general...i have seen the NHC be pretty "spot on" in their predictions. But one thing I do notice...is that intensity forecasts are marginal guesses, at best. And few of the models ever ramp up the intensity like reality does.

this will be a strong hurricane....why do I feel that way?

SST's...

late July....

hot

GOM

ridge building aloft already....

gut feel.


I just don't see that happening. Just my opinion.
Member Since: Αύγουστος 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 497
1036. xcool
aka soon to Bonnie get bigg now fat all that...
Member Since: Σεπτέμβριος 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
97L still looks like one big disorganized mess to me, still can do plenty destruction and can cause lost of life regardless and thats the main issue.
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I wouldn't worry too much at this time once it enters the GOM. Models want to weaken it seeing unfavorable conditions. My guess is there will be drier air and shear in place. That would be a blessing for the oil spill if that pans out. Right now it seems the keys and S FL would get the worst conditions. It looks like it's best window for strengthening will be before it reaches the GOM. As we know in the tropics things could change and 97L could become more of a problem for Gulf coast residents. Just a wait and see scenario.
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1033. Hhunter
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Model Info
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Quoting asgolfr999:
I just cannot tell you how much I LOVE it when the models point right at my back yard this far out. Means I have just about NOTHING to worry about. So why get heated up boys and girls, we all know that this far out all anyone can do is speculate...so,...speculate.
Big diff between pointing at and running over......F5...F5...F5...
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Quoting xcool:
MiamiHurricanes09 GO TO INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION ON .storm2k.org/ READ wxman57 POSTING
He wrote this...

"
Good chance Miami will be under at least a hurricane watch and quite likely a hurricane warning by Thursday morning (maybe earlier). I'm concerned about final landfall as far west as Louisiana. I'm not thinking we're at risk yet in Houston, though. But if it gets THAT far west then it could be bigger and stronger than what I'd expect for the FL Panhandle to SE LA."
Member Since: Σεπτέμβριος 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1029. Hhunter
Quoting asgolfr999:
I just cannot tell you how much I LOVE it when the models point right at my back yard this far out. Means I have just about NOTHING to worry about. So why get heated up boys and girls, we all know that this far out all anyone can do is speculate...so,...speculate.


steering currents pretty straight forward so says doc...no fish storm, it wont head due east i can assure you and i am not thinking south west either. guess you better hope for dry air or hispaniola..otherwise enjoy
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1028. xcool
MiamiHurricanes09 yayy
Member Since: Σεπτέμβριος 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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