Potentially dangerous 92L steadily developing; Igor nears hurricane strength
A tropical disturbance (92L) over the Eastern Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico, is steadily organizing and appears likely to develop into a tropical depression by tonight or Sunday morning. Satellite loops show an impressive and expanding region of heavy thunderstorms, with good spiral banding and respectable upper-level outflow on all sides. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico shows that heavy rains are now affecting that island, but there is no rotation to the radar echoes evident. However, the rain bands are becoming more intense and more organized. San Juan, Puerto Rico reported a heavy rain squall at 8:44 am this morning, and radar estimates suggest two inches of rain fell in this squall just southeast of San Juan. Wind shear over 92L is low, 5 - 10 knots. The waters beneath are at near-record warmth, 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of 92L, and this dry air could interfere with development at times over the next few days.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 92L.
Track forecast for 92L
The disturbance is moving west-northwest at 11 mph, and steering currents favor a continuation of this motion for the next three days. Model support for development is scattered. The GFS and NOGAPS models do not develop 92L. The GFDL and ECMWF models predict development, with a track taking 92L into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. The HWRF model has a more northwesterly track, taking 92L over the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Cuba, but this model has been trending too far north in its tracks. I expect 92L will follow a path south of the islands, bringing it near or just south of Jamaica on Monday, then into the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. On this track, the southern Dominican Republic can expect heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches tonight through Monday morning; southern Haiti can expect similar rains Sunday through Monday, and Jamaica and the Cayman Islands can expect heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches Monday and Tuesday. Eastern Cuba will probably escape 92L's heaviest rains in this scenario (Figure 2.)
Intensity forecast for 92L
I can't find any reason to doubt this will be a tropical storm by Sunday or Monday, and potentially a Category 1 or 2 hurricane by Wednesday, if 92L avoids passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. The SHIPS model predicts wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, through the period, and makes 92L a Category 1 hurricane by Monday night. Water temperatures are certainly warm enough to support development. The main detriment to intensification is likely to be dry air, and 92L could wrap in some of the dry air to its northwest at times, slowing down development. The first Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into 92L is scheduled for Sunday afternoon, but there will be a research mission by the National Center for Atmospheric Research G-V jet today that will give us valuable information on 92L's large scale environment and potential for development.
Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts from 92L from the 2am EDT Saturday run of the GFDL model. This model predicts most of 92L's heaviest rains will miss Haiti, but will affect Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.
Igor
Tropical Storm Igor is very close to hurricane strength, and appears destined to become a large and powerful major hurricane over the Central Atlantic in the days to come. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, waters are warm, 28°C, and Igor has moistened its environment enough to keep the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) at bay. Igor will track west under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure for the next three days, then turn more to the west-northwest in response to the steering influence of a broad trough of low pressure moving across the Western Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. This should allow Igor to pass several hundred miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. In the longer range, Igor may be a threat to Bermuda, and has a slight chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast or Canada. Climatology shows that about 10% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are about 10% for Bermuda and 5% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas. The odds of Igor hitting land in the U.S. or Canada are probably close to their climatological 10% and 5% probabilities, respectively.
Elsewhere in the tropics
A new tropical wave (Invest 93L) emerged from the coast of Africa yesterday, and is already showing signs of organization. Most of the models predict 93L will develop into a tropical depression 2 - 4 days from now, and NHC is giving 93L a 30% chance of developing by Monday.
Next post
This may be my only post today; I'll have a new post Sunday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Ever heard of Project Stormfury (I think that's what it was called)?
For a professional individual like JB to spit out poorly written posts/blogs/articles (whatever) like that makes people take him less seriously, whether subconsciously or consciously.
Lol. She probably read it and thought, "I'll show them!" We try not to anger her any longer. Not sure what we did in the first place. So we're doing our tree planting dances on egg shells around here now. Lol.
What are you getting at here (I have a hunch, but want confirmation)?
Simply stating that we have, in fact, tried controlling tropical cyclones with, at best, mixed results.
I don't believe in the HAARP stuff.
I'm rather skeptical of that.
Nope, never heard of it.
:)
hmm very so now with a strom in position and jasons trofs let see where should this one be going any gusses
and the home depot shuffle....we hate seeing texas get smashed!! hopefully this 92L will deflate and we might just get a nice thunderstorm....we could use that around here.
Yup, that's exactly what I suspected you were getting at. I'm in the same boat.
Really, if we don't know enough about tropical cyclones/genesis as it is. So how can we expect to successfully modify them?
24 hours ago, this storm was passing over Cuba, now it has completed crossing the Yucatan. If this storm actually forms, the end of the month will be interesting...
Yep, timing is always important. Any delay for 92L even by 1 day where it is suppose to be will bring it further north.
'Twas a hurricane modification project funded by the federal government in the 1960s. It persisted into the middle 1970s, but was eventually dropped due to lack of appreciable effects on the storms they attempted to modify.
OOOH OK. I see. So I'm just gonna close my eyes now. :)
And Caribbean islands (Cuba in particular, I think) didn't appreciate the possible negative impact it would have on them. The winds may be weaker but the torrential rains would be devastating.
I should have said, 24 hours ago this future storm was shown passing over Cuba. This storm has not yet formed and the scenario being depicted is 2 weeks away.
i'm gathering that....hey i'm up for excitement just as much as the next person, but this is not exciting in any way shape or form....i guess if the electricity was out for these teenagers without a clue and no t.v or video games then it would be tragic!!! (and of course all the batteries are gone as well)
Friend O Nash? He did rule!
Even some that pretend to be 13yo and end up blogging in the middle of a school day but, then claim to be sick......LOL. That happened this week...LOL
IMO I believe us humans should never play God. Trying to alter nature's course can bring its consequences.
Halo Reach Tuesday!
looks to be going a little north wouldnt you say
It's best not to fool around with weather modification because you are going to end up messing up the atmosphere and weather patterns really badly.
Oh right, I forgot about that. I also heard that in the event that a storm unexpectedly veered toward the coast at the last minute when it was supposed to recurve, the seeding/modification would be blamed.
LOLLLLLLLLLLLLL Oh, that's great. That gave me a good laugh, I needed it.
Agreed.
I think you're thinking of who I'm thinking of... but then again, its pretty obvious. lol
The dot of convection has grown since I last looked.
YES I hope nothing comes of 92l. And LOL at the home depot shuffle. You've been there! Are you in Louisiana? We have both had our fill of storms for a while. And like with Alex and Hermine the Lone Star State seems to share our misery with our neighbors. UGH! I can't wait til November/December/ish.
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