The tornado onslaught of 2011 continued over the Midwest yesterday, as dozens of tornadoes touched down, primarily in Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Arkansas. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 81 preliminary reports of tornadoes in eleven states. Even California got into the action, with a tornado near Chico causing minor damage. Mercifully, no deaths were reported from yesterday's tornadoes. Too many thunderstorms formed too close to each other to allow strong or violent tornadoes to grow, as the many thunderstorms interfered with each others' organization. The preliminary tornado count for the 5-day outbreak that began Saturday is 243. Preliminary tornado reports are an overestimate, since some storms get counted multiple times. These over-counts were 35% - 40% in the case of the April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak and April 25 - 28 Super outbreak, so we can expect that the May 21 - 25, 2011 outbreak will end up with close to 150 tornadoes. This would rank as the third largest tornado outbreak in history, giving 2011 the three largest tornado outbreaks of all-time. Prior to 2011, NOAA rated the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak as the largest tornado outbreak of all-time, with 148 tornadoes. According to a list of tornado outbreaks maintained by Wikipedia, only two other tornado outbreaks have had as many as 150 twisters prior to 2011--the May 2004 outbreak (385), and the May 2003 outbreak (401). However, these outbreaks occurred over an eight-day and eleven-day period, respectively, and were not due to a single storm system.
Figure 1. Satellite image taken at 23:32 UTC (7:32pm EDT) May 25, 2011, showing a line of tornadic thunderstorms over the Midwest. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Figure 2. Tornado near Fariview, Oklahoma, on May 24, 2011. Image credit: Mike Theiss, www.ExtremeNature.com.
Video 1. "We are in the tornado!" is all this poor guy caught in a car during a tornado can say, while buildings fly apart around him. He is very lucky to have survived. Video shot in Navarro County, Texas on May 24, 2011.
The death toll from Tuesday's tornadoes over Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Kansas is now 16, which would bring the death toll from this year's tornadoes to 506, according to yesterday's NOAA tornado statistic update. This makes 2011 the deadliest year for tornadoes in the U.S. since 1953, when 519 people died. That year, three heavily populated cities received direct hits by violent tornadoes. Waco, Texas (114 killed), Flint, Michigan (115 killed), and Worcester, Massachusetts (90 killed) all were hit by violent F-4 or F-5 tornadoes. A similar bad tornado year occurred in 1936, when violent tornadoes hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.)
Only a "Slight Risk" day for severe weather today
The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of twenty states, from Alabama to Vermont, in their "Slight Risk" region for severe weather potential. The slow-moving low pressure system responsible for all the tornado activity this week is weakening, and the primary severe weather threat today is from large hail and damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds. However, there are still likely to be tornadoes today, and I expect we'll see a dozen or so twisters touch down from some of the stronger thunderstorms that develop.
Figure 3. Severe weather threat for Wednesday, May 25, 2011.
Links
Here is an interactive hi-res satellite image showing Joplin before and after the tornado. Some non-interactive images are here.
The New York Times has an interactive tornado fatality map showing how this year's killer tornadoes have mostly clustered over the Southeast U.S., with the glaring exception of the Joplin, Missouri tornado.
NOAA's Visualization Laboratory has an impressive animation of the satellite imagery during the month of April, showing the locations of all the tornadoes as they happened.
Figure 4. Satellite image of Super Typhoon Songda.
Super Typhoon Songda the first Category 5 tropical cyclone of 2011
The first typhoon of 2011 is also the globe's first Category 5 tropical cyclone of the year. Super Typhoon Songda intensified dramatically over the past 24 hours in an environment of light wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures of 30°C, to reach Category 5 status with top sustained winds of 160 mph. Tropical Cyclone Yasi, which devastated Queensland, Australia in early February, was the globe's previous strongest tropical cyclone of 2011, with 155 mph winds.
Fortunately, Songda is expected to miss making a direct hit on the Philippines, though evacuations have been ordered in low-lying areas. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the coming 24-hour period is predicted to be less than 4 inches along the northeast coast of the Philippines' Luzon Island, which should not cause major flooding problems. Songda is expected to turn northwards and threaten the island of Okinawa on Saturday. Sea surface temperatures decline rapidly north of the Philippines, and Songda is expected to weaken significantly before reaching Okinawa, where sea surface temperatures are approximately 26°C. Wind shear will also increase to high levels by Saturday, and Songda should be at most a Category 2 typhoon by the time it reaches Okinawa.
Jeff Masters
Tornado Warning for us. It went just past us, was beautiful to watch.
First round of large hail.
I was west bound I 74 when I drove into this storm. They said On the radio it was a tornado on the ground.
Joplin 5/22/11 EF5 aftermath (
N0RCO)
I went to joplin to look at the destruction this EF5 tornado did. Absolutely devastating in my opinion!
I caught this totally by accident. I was trying to take a picture of the cloud formation and this flashed right as I took the picture. Unbelievable luck!!
View of sky before storm, May 25, 2011 Indianapolis
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Very far South and no SAL to suppress thunderstorm activity. Just a guess.
Metal garden tractors tend to be excellent lighting
rods, probably best left in the garage during that
kind of storm.
Unless you use this type.
Tractor driver survives lightning strike
James Andrews
Wednesday 15 July 2009 10:38
A tractor driver has survived a one-billion volt lightning strike while carrying out field work in Norfolk.
The strike destroyed the electrical system of Simon Jennings' Fendt 936 and filled the cab with smoke. But he walked away with nothing worse than a ringing noise in his ears.
I had to drive from Thomaston to LaGrange GA today
thru that front and it was no picnic, lots of juice.
Hi there KOTG
The models are still at it with the SW Caribbean.Early to mid next week is now the time frame to watch for initial development.
**MIND YOU THAT THE TIME ON THE SURFACE ANALYSIS IS 18 UTC**
Arlene*
well it does kind of hint at an increased likelihood of development
yes TomTaylor you are reading my mind
Ah, okay. Thanks for the clarification.
I don't see another Alex myself. For one thing, June hurricanes are rare enough. Secondly, I don't think the ridge is going to be that equatorial, as the global models have been consistently showing a weakness in the western extension of it due to a cold front moving across the eastern United States.
18 UTC run of the GFS at 06Z on the 31st May. Not far away for verification. The 00 UTC run this evening will be interesting to see.
On the other end of the spectrum, the Atchafalya is going to crest at ~11 ft. sometime this weekend and they've closed a few gates at the Morganza spillway today because water levels are dropping up there.
LinktoReutersStoryAtchafalyastillrising
(oops, old news: they started closing on Tues.)
see you later
Our drought ended temporarily three days ago and promptly started again. We have only seen about 4.5 inches of rain since Jan 1st this year.Hopefully some of what the models are hinting at will pan out and bring some solid rain.
Bloomberg Article...
The "appropriate time"? Appropriate for whom? The good people of Japan? Or the nuclear industry?
And if you've read this far, perhaps you'll be willing to read a bit further: Is Fukushima now ten Chernobyls into the sea?
No kidding LOL
00 UTC NAM running now with first 6 hours out.
I heard this weekend is starting to look better for us.
Meanwhile, Songda is going to avoid land it seems so finally some good extreme-weather news.
However,it may not avoid Okinawa.
Hey, Chicklit. I know you could appreciate this. It is a picture of my lawn in FLL. LOL We do need the rain badly.
Not much showing over Fla thru tomorrow for precip except a bit along the Eastern seaboard. Western half and panhandle looking dry. As for Songda, I bet there are a couple of ships captains not sleeping well tonight LOL
Looks like it could be very, very close to the Southern Islands.
It all begins. Every six hours we wait for the GFS to run and then several folks will post 6 hour intervals all the way up to 384 hours.
Arlene, I believe.
Hey Kman. Indeed, when the timeline starts to shorten with consecutive runs that greatly increases the possibility. Did you ever get any rain from that upper trough?
We did, 1.68 inches to be exact at my home LOL.
Just a teaser though. Nothing for the past two days.
Well that's good that you finally got something. Hopefully this upcoming system will provide more.
Uh oh. More anomalies :-)
Yeah. I've been hearing that all Spring. LOL How you doing Twin? Terrible week, wasn't it?
Well, we're in the middle of a record heatwave, so by lower 48 standards I'd say pretty nice. For us, we're all melting lol.
The GFS doesn't have a low pressure system breaking down the ridge until 6 days from now, so apart from the thunderstorms along the mountains during most afternoons, the weather is quiet.
Wild fires are becoming a problem. The humidity right now at NWS is 17%.
A. SUPER TYPHOON 04W (SONGDA)
B. 26/2332Z
C. 18.1N
D. 123.9E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T6.5/7.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE W/ WHT SURR YIELDS
6.5 DT. PT AND MET YIELD 6.0. DBO DT
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
26/2154Z 17.7N 124.1E SSMS
HATHAWAY
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 04W WARNING NR 26//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY (260936Z CORIOLIS AND 261157Z
SSMIS) DEPICT A 16 NM CONCENTRIC EYE-WALL WITH SPIRAL BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FROM ALL QUADRANTS.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION BASED ON
THE 26/1132Z PGTW EYE FIX AND THE SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD OF
140 KNOTS. FUELED BY DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(5-10 KNOTS), AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, STY 04W HAS
RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) AND HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY, INDICATING
THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE RIDGE AXIS AND SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN
INCREASINGLY POLEWARD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. STY SONGDA IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE STR AND MAINTAIN SUPER
TYPHOON INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24, BUT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS TOWARD OKINAWA, JAPAN AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND LESS FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 25 DEGREES
NORTH LATITUDE. STY 04W WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 48, BUT DIFFERS SLIGHTLY IN
TRACK SPEED. EGRR AND JGSM REMAIN THE SLOWER MODELS, WHILE NOGAPS
AND GFDN ARE SLIGHTLY FASTER. THE JTWC FORECAST IN THE EARLY TAUS
REMAINS SLIGHTLY INSIDE AND FASTER THAN CONSENSUS, AND IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, STY 04W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE AND
WEAKEN RAPIDLY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP MID-LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.
DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AS FAR AS THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A HIGH-GALE TO STORM FORCE LOW AFTER TAU 72, BUT OVER THE PAST 12-
24 HOURS, THERE HAS BEEN A DISTINCT POLEWARD TREND IN MODEL
TRACKERS, WITH NOGAPS, GFDN, AND GFS BRINGING THE SYSTEM INLAND JUST
SOUTH OF KYOTO, JAPAN. BASED ON THIS TREND, THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY POLEWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST, BUT
REMAINS INSIDE AND FASTER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS. BASED ON THE
FORECASTED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN, AND KNOWN MODEL ERROR
IN A RE-CURVE TYPE SCENARIO, A TRACK OVER SOUTHERN HONSHU DOES NOT
SEEM LIKELY AT THIS TIME.//
NNNN
Good evening all.
Reportedly, there were two fatalities near Buckhead in Fulton County, when straight-line winds toppled a tree onto a car, killing the two women inside.
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