Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Invest now to improve tornado warnings; an early start to hurricane season?

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 04:24 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begin on Wednesday, June 1, and recent computer model runs predict that we may have some early-season action in the Central Caribbean Sea to coincide with the start of this year's season. The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models have all indicated in some of their recent runs that a tropical disturbance may form between Jamaica and Central America sometime in the May 31 - June 2 time frame, as a lobe of the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) pushes across Central America into the Caribbean. Up until now, wind shear has been too high to allow tropical storm formation in the Caribbean, due to the presence of the Subtropical Jet Stream. However, this jet is expected to push northwards over Cuba over the coming week, allowing a region of low wind shear to develop over most of the Caribbean. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. The main impediment to development will probably be lack of spin, as we don't have any African tropical waves that are expected to enter the Caribbean Sea next week, to help get things spinning. Stay tuned.

Figure 1. Satellite image of Typhoon Songda.

Typhoon Songda heads for Okinawa and Japan
Typhoon Songda brushed the Philippines yesterday, bringing heavy rains that killed at least two people. Fortunately, the brunt of this year's first Category 5 storm missed the islands, and Songda has weakened slightly to a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Songda is turning northwards and will threaten the island of Okinawa on Saturday. Sea surface temperatures decline rapidly north of the Philippines, and Songda is expected to weaken significantly before reaching Okinawa, where sea surface temperatures are approximately 26°C. Wind shear will also increase to high levels by Saturday, and Songda should be at most a Category 2 typhoon by the time it reaches Okinawa. On Sunday,

Invest now for better tornado warnings
National Weather Service forecasters issued a tornado warning 24 minutes in advance of the Joplin, Missouri tornado this.week, which is now being blamed for at least 132 deaths--the deadliest U.S. tornado since at least 1947. However, we can do better, and the National Weather Service Employees Organization (NWSEO) put out a press release on May 23, arguing that investments in weather service forecasting technology are needed to reduce loss of life in future violent tornadoes:

"The 24-minute lead time is a great improvement over the average lead time of 13 minutes for tornado warnings. The meteorologists in the Springfield Weather Forecast Office are commended for their lifesaving work," said Dan Sobien, NWSEO President. "But in our age of advanced technology and communication, when new radars and modeling opportunities exist that can provide more lead time to get people out of the path of a storm, hundreds of people do not have to die because of a tornado event."

Sobien says the Joplin and Tuscaloosa tornadoes are examples of how the government's neglect to invest in NWS related infrastructure over the last 10 to 15 years has failed to provide the tools necessary to protect lives and property. He says that the tools forecasters use to issue tornado warnings are woefully inadequate and that the technology exists to provide lead times so far in advance of the storm that it would make the need for tornado warnings as we know them obsolete. "The much touted Doppler Weather Radar, also known as the Weather Service Radar or WSR-88D, was developed in 1988. Since that time, technological advances, including phased array radars developed by the Department of Defense, have been shown to increase the current lead time on tornado warnings by almost 50 percent."

"The much touted Warn on Forecast process utilizes Meso-scale modeling and has the potential to let forecasters know hours in advance where a thunderstorm would form and if it is likely to contain strong winds, hail, or even a tornado. With adequate staffing, local National Weather Service forecasters who understand local terrain and the model output, could be embedded with emergency managers and decision makers. In the event of a storm, the forecaster could provide emergency managers with the tornado track with some margin of error and people in the way of the storm could be evacuated hours before the tornado hits. This technology is being developed and tested right now, however without funding it will never be available."

"The art and science of severe weather warnings made considerable progress during the 1980s and 90s, going from almost zero lead time to average of about 13 minutes for tornado warnings. However, in recent years, that progress has stalled, even while the technological advancements have accelerated. If the country made the type of investment in the National Weather Service that it did in the 1980s, scenes like the ones in Missouri this week and in Alabama and Mississippi last month could be a thing of the past."

"I am very proud of my co-workers at the National Weather Service this tornado season. They saved many lives and having been there myself, I can assure you, they feel personally about every lost life," said Sobien. "I know that budgets are tight and there are many priorities, but if you put investing in the National Weather Service up to a vote today in tornado alley, I think the approval would be a landslide."

I wholeheartedly agree with this view--investments in better tornado forecasts and tornado observing technology will potentially give us a huge return in lives saved. Have a great holiday weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday or Tuesday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Tornado Power (Betty2)

Sunday, LaCrosse, WI a tornado hit. This is a photo of a 2x4 board that slammed through a tire.. and, freaky, but it left the air in the tire! Photo was taken by my neighbor, Lori Hines, Gays Mills WI.

25 May, (rdjgonzo)

May 25, 2011 at 7:10pm. Picture taken from Bartlett (Shelby County) TN.

What A Storm (llpj04)

Categories: Tornado

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101. Grothar 07:02 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
Quoting IKE: Looking at yesterdays 12Z ECMWF...it's showing more today with the Caribbean disturbance. Track is off to the NNE to NE. Like a broad area of low pressure. ................................................. ............................................ hr. 216..... IKE, if you are getting those from raleighwx or from Allan Huffman's website, I think the site has some problems. i.e., the GFS will not even display. Don't be embarrassed by the not being able to post. Hydrus does that all the time, and we still respect him. Member Since: Ιούλιος 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19523

102. sunlinepr 07:03 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
Quoting IKE: My ECMWF images not showing up? In my Firefox it appears as Remote Linking Disabled.... Member Since: Αύγουστος 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8445

103. IKE 07:05 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
Member Since: Ιούνιος 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

104. IKE 07:07 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
I went through imageshack on post #103....should display....240 hr. ECMWF...^^^ Looks like a stronger low develops ESE by several hundred miles...of Bermuda. Member Since: Ιούνιος 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

105. sunlinepr 07:08 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
Quoting IKE: Perfect, that imageshack utility is an excellent tool... Member Since: Αύγουστος 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8445

106. IKE 07:09 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
Quoting sunlinepr: Perfect, that imageshack utility is an excellent tool... Thanks for the info. I'll do that with ECMWF from now on. Member Since: Ιούνιος 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

107. sunlinepr 07:09 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
Member Since: Αύγουστος 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8445

108. sunlinepr 07:10 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
Quoting IKE: Thanks for the info. I'll do that with ECMWF from now on. Always preview your posts, if they don't show, use imageshack... Member Since: Αύγουστος 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8445

109. IKE 07:11 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
Quoting sunlinepr: Always preview your posts, if they don't show, use imageshack... They were showing though. I have posted ECMWF before and did get a message. They were showing this time. EDITS>>> And there still showing on my computer. Thanks though...easily fixed. ................................................. .................................................. ...... "Don't be embarrassed by the not being able to post. Hydrus does that all the time, and we still respect him.".... lol. Member Since: Ιούνιος 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

110. atmoaggie 07:15 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
Quoting IKE: I'm using Firefox....Windows Inspiron. Umm, Windows [insert version here] on a Dell Inspiron? Member Since: Αύγουστος 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

111. Grothar 07:15 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
Quoting sunlinepr: Ike goto imageshack.com (You don't have to sign in if you don't want to) copy that URL from your graphics into the upload box, selecting URL mode... Press UPload now A new window with your image with a URL that can be posted here will appear.... post it and OK.... Like this.... How do you young people know how to do all these things? Member Since: Ιούλιος 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19523

112. sunlinepr 07:16 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
Quoting IKE: They were showing though. I have posted ECMWF before and did get a message. They were showing this time. Thanks though...easily fixed. There are other images that can't be posted directly, like Link if you want to post from that link, there is an extra step...you have to stop the animation in the frame you like, drag the image to a new tab Then, (copy the url from that tab), and use it in imageshack.... I Member Since: Αύγουστος 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8445

114. sunlinepr 07:17 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
Quoting Grothar: How do you young people know how to do all these things? my uncle, computer expert Babbages is giving me some advice.... Seriously, see post 107? I have a bookmark called Grotars Gif... I just click on it and the last animation from that link appears... Excuse me, (You usually post that animation) But really I just bookmarked that link from one of your posts, and everytime I click on it, whatever is saved there appears... Member Since: Αύγουστος 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8445

115. Grothar 07:19 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
. Member Since: Ιούλιος 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19523

116. nrtiwlnvragn 07:22 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
Quoting IKE: They were showing though. I have posted ECMWF before and did get a message. They were showing this time. EDITS>>> And there still showing on my computer. Thanks though...easily fixed. ................................................. .................................................. ...... "Don't be embarrassed by the not being able to post. Hydrus does that all the time, and we still respect him.".... lol. It is not the ECMWF, but any images linked from that website. They have set their firewall to reject any image links from external sites. At least they display a message about it, most sites you just get the Grothar red X. Member Since: Σεπτέμβριος 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8922

117. Grothar 07:22 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
Quoting twincomanche: Idle minds are the workshop of the devil. Consistency is the hobgoblin of small minds. One thing about you; you are consistent. Member Since: Ιούλιος 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19523

118. Grothar 07:25 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn: It is not the ECMWF, but any images linked from that website. They have set their firewall to reject any image links from external sites. At least they display a message about it, most sites you just get the Grothar red X. At least I said it was a test. LOL I was using imageshack and I guess I messed it up. Well, back to basket weaving. Member Since: Ιούλιος 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19523

119. emcf30 07:25 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
Quoting Grothar: How do you young people know how to do all these things? We have come along way from posting messages on cave walls. This one is of a bird fleeing a tropical cyclone Member Since: Αύγουστος 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1926

120. seflagamma 07:26 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
Thank you Dr Jeff for another great blog.. with a lot of intresting info. You and yours have a wonderful weekend. Hello Weather geeks! so many great posts here full of lots of ideas. I came from "tornado alley" and spent a lot of time "hunkered down" with a storm coming and been hit before with a split roof. It can be scary if you are caught un prepared. I was aware of the tornado watches when they went up that afternoon, hours before we were actually hit in Jonesboro, AR 1973 Some of us would have always got the warning ...because of the type people we are... even before computers and radar.. we were weather watchers! The rest of my family never watches the weather; I have to bring it up to them if something is out there! More advance warnings will not help many folks...they have their own "ipods" and such now and there is no way we can over ride that. But I think we need them, the more advanced warnings we can have the better. I think city sirens are a great idea.. we have them in our neighborhood parks to get people out of their pools when lightening stikes... guess they would work for tornadoes also. Been enjoying the reading here...Thanks. Member Since: Αύγουστος 29, 2005 Posts: 286 Comments: 40484

121. Grothar 07:27 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
Quoting sunlinepr: my uncle, computer expert Babbages is giving me some advice.... Seriously, see post 107? I have a bookmark called Grotars Gif... I just click on it and the last animation from that link appears... Excuse me, I stole it from one of your posts... (You usually post that animation) But really I didn't stole anything... I just bookmarked that link and everytime I click on it, whatever is saved there appears... I am honored. I see you also stole GeoffWPB Intellicast link. LOL Member Since: Ιούλιος 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19523

122. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 07:28 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
Quoting twincomanche: Idle minds are the workshop of the devil. Member Since: Ιούλιος 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40490

124. Grothar 07:30 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
Quoting emcf30: We have come along way from posting messages on cave walls. This one is of a bird fleeing a tropical cyclone Aw, you found Ptery. She was a good little pet. Member Since: Ιούλιος 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19523

125. IKE 07:30 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
Thanks for the information that helped me. 89.6 outside my window. Member Since: Ιούνιος 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

126. Grothar 07:32 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
Quoting twincomanche: It's a plan. HA! Looks like we are finally getting some rain in S. Fla. Not being able to post from those sites is really going to be annoying. They were the best sites for that type of information. Member Since: Ιούλιος 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19523

127. ShenValleyFlyFish 07:33 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
Quoting emcf30: We have come along way from posting messages on cave walls. This one is of a bird fleeing a tropical cyclone You got real problems when that message board crashes. Member Since: Σεπτέμβριος 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684

128. sunlinepr 07:34 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
Quoting Grothar: I am honored. I see you also stole GeoffWPB Intellicast link. LOL Stole???? "Bookmarked" sounds prettier ;) Member Since: Αύγουστος 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8445

129. Grothar 07:37 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
I haven't seen GeoffWPB around in months. Has anyone heard from him? Member Since: Ιούλιος 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19523

130. emcf30 07:37 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish: You got real problems when that message board crashes. Thats when you whip out the old club and start swinging Member Since: Αύγουστος 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1926

131. sunlinepr 07:38 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
In your honor: Grotar's Gif Just one click away... I invite all bloggers to bookmark it as Grotar's Gif.... (Sometimes it goes away, depending on the one who controls whatever is that link) http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/temp/movie. gif Member Since: Αύγουστος 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8445

132. Grothar 07:40 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish: You got real problems when that message board crashes. Yes. I guess it give new meaning the the term "hard drive" Member Since: Ιούλιος 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19523

133. ShenValleyFlyFish 07:41 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
Quoting emcf30: Thats when you whip out the old club and start swinging New (old) meaning for "strike any key". Member Since: Σεπτέμβριος 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684

134. Grothar 07:42 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
Quoting sunlinepr: In your honor: Grotar's Gif Just one click away... I invite all bloggers to bookmark it as Grotar's Gif.... http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/temp/movie. gif I knew that would be it. If I recall, you asked me where I got that last year. Member Since: Ιούλιος 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19523

135. entrelac 07:46 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
Speaking of more warning for tornadoes and not less - Cedar Park, TX is taking down their sirens saying that they confuse people. Instead they are looking to send out postcards saying "Have a plan Make a Kit * Stay informed". It's a horrifying plan for a town that was affected by the Jarrell, TX tornado. More info - HERE Member Since: Σεπτέμβριος 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 232

136. sunlinepr 07:47 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
Quoting Grothar: I knew that would be it. If I recall, you asked me where I got that last year. Seriously, is that a private account? Are you the one changing the animations or that is a public site? I just bookmarked it and whenever I call it, sometimes there is no animation and sometimes there is... and they change all the time.... I really don't understand what goes on in the link... But it works... Member Since: Αύγουστος 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8445

137. Grothar 07:48 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
Quoting sunlinepr: In your honor: Grotar's Gif Just one click away... I invite all bloggers to bookmark it as Grotar's Gif.... (Sometimes it goes away, depending on the one who controls whatever is that link) http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/temp/movie. gif I can control your link from here. Just refresh, and it will go back to the original. Member Since: Ιούλιος 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19523

138. JRRP 07:51 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
ukmo Member Since: Αύγουστος 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4305

139. jayb 07:54 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
I think it is great if there is a way continue to increase tornado warning times, however the storms in AL and Joplin among other places, underline that just going to an interior "safe place" is not enough in a major storm. That is may be the best available for many, but we really need to have more shelters in homes. Anothing that really scared me was listening to the OK news broadcasters telling people to "get out of the way" of the storm by driving somewhere else... and we all know what happens to cars caught in tornado winds... Member Since: Μάρτιος 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 0

140. cg2916 08:01 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
pant pant pant I came here as soon as I heard the ECMWF spun up something in the Caribbean... again. Member Since: Δεκέμβριος 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2908

141. wunderkidcayman 08:03 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
Quoting cg2916: pant pant pant I came here as soon as I heard the ECMWF spun up something in the Caribbean... again. relax the storm won't arrive till next week mid-late week Member Since: Ιούνιος 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5409

142. caneswatch 08:03 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
Quoting Grothar: I can control your link from here. Just refresh, and it will go back to the original. Look who's back again! Member Since: Οκτώβριος 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473

143. cg2916 08:05 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
I wonder how the GFS will handle this. You know, the GFS is like a young child. If it does well, we give it a piece of candy (or positive data), and it loves it. But if we give it a slap on the wrist (negative data), it ignores it and does it again, and again, and again. Eventually it goes "I'm sorry", and we say "Well, if you're sorry, you wouldn't spin up Invests over and over". Member Since: Δεκέμβριος 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2908

144. sunlinepr 08:05 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
Member Since: Αύγουστος 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8445

145. DocNDswamp 08:06 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
"If the country made the type of investment in the National Weather Service that it did in the 1980s, scenes like the ones in Missouri this week and in Alabama and Mississippi last month could be a thing of the past." I've certainly always supported the highest degree of funding for our NWS, but Dan Sobien's statement above is a stretch... and he borders on losing credibility, sounding more like a political lobbyiest thumping an unattainable idealistic state... Almost comes across as if we could stop tornado disasters...WTH? There's simply too many of us lying in the path of one disaster or another... The 24 min lead warning time for Joplin was outstanding, as others have said it's up to the people to respond accordingly with quick determination - but typical folks, unlike us wx geeks, often don't, our choice to remain stupid and vulnerable in a free society... It defies reasoning to think such a powerful force could hit populated areas without causing large numbers of casualties, injuries and deaths. Besides, didn't we hear a consensus from storm spotters / those chasing that forming supercell and NWS mets mention there was nothing clearly imminent prior to the point the warning was issued? Anything less certain, we start issuing warnings - instead of watches - before the threat is clearly warranted and the "cry wolf" factor soon degrades the usefulness of the whole system. Additional funding and improvements for the NWS should continue forward, but limitations will always exist in the best of circumstances - I believe all need keep a healthy dose of reality to expectations... Member Since: Σεπτέμβριος 21, 2005 Posts: 92 Comments: 4640

146. Levi32 08:07 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
The split of the low in the Caribbean is due to the influence of both the trough-split over the Gulf of Mexico and the rest of the trough over the western Atlantic. It is likely that some energy will get pulled up that way, which the models are trying to turn into a separate low. The whole thing could go that direction as well. It will be interesting to see if a piece is left behind in the Caribbean, or if the whole thing gets trapped under the ridge. Member Since: Νοέμβριος 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25446

147. sunlinepr 08:13 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
Some animations to bookmark, one link away Tropics IR Link Antilles WV Link Conus WV Link Member Since: Αύγουστος 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8445

148. Neapolitan 08:14 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
It's difficult to get It's difficult to imagine increased funding for the NWS at this moment when many members of the House are so virulently dismissive of science, steadfastly opposed to funding anything other than the military and various tax breaks for the wealthy, and openly mocking of anything that they deem "Big Government". Just as a for-instance, there's the following tweet from last year's annual tornado drill: The person who tweeted that, you should know, is auctioneer, poker player, college dropout, and U.S. Representative Billy Long of Missouri's 7th congressional district--which includes, yes, Joplin. (I suppose it's true: we get the representation we deserve. But still...) The fact is, the technology exists to improve warning times for severe weather of all types. But until and unless those controlling the purse strings can be made to see the light and held accountable for their lack of action, people will continue to die needless deaths. :-\ Member Since: Νοέμβριος 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11149

149. VAbeachhurricanes 08:19 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan: It's difficult to get It's difficult to imagine increased funding for the NWS at this moment when many members of the House are so virulently dismissive of science, steadfastly opposed to funding anything other than the military and various tax breaks for the wealthy, and openly mocking of anything that they deem "Big Government". Just as a for-instance, there's the following tweet from last year's annual tornado drill: The person who tweeted that, you should know, is auctioneer, poker player, college dropout, and U.S. Representative Billy Long of Missouri's 7th congressional district--which includes, yes, Joplin. (I suppose it's true: we get the representation we deserve. But still...) The fact is, the technology exists to improve warning times for severe weather of all types. But until and unless those controlling the purse strings can be made to see the light and held accountable for their lack of action, people will continue to die needless deaths. :-\ I'm a republican, and I'm in love with science. I'll be the first to say that guy is a tool, I hate when representatives act as if they know the seriousness of situations, when phds are telling them to worry, and they scoff saying something like "I've seen a tornado before." Boggles me how they get themselves dressed in the morning. Member Since: Σεπτέμβριος 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4801

150. CybrTeddy 08:20 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
Blog update! Enjoy! An early start to hurricane season? 5/27/11 Member Since: Ιούλιος 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20235

151. sunlinepr 08:20 PM GMT on Μάιος 27, 2011
Quoting Levi32: The split of the low in the Caribbean is due to the influence of both the trough-split over the Gulf of Mexico and the rest of the trough over the western Atlantic. It is likely that some energy will get pulled up that way, which the models are trying to turn into a separate low. The whole thing could go that direction as well. It will be interesting to see if a piece is left behind in the Caribbean, or if the whole thing gets trapped under the ridge. Excellent analysis, thanks... for your tropical Tidbits Member Since: Αύγουστος 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8445

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