Tropical Storm Lee lingers off Louisiana coast
Tropical Storm Lee continues to bring heavy rain, moderately strong wind gusts, and tornado risk to the Gulf Coast states east of Texas. Lee is 55 miles south of Lafayette, Louisiana, and is drifting almost due north at 4 mph. Lee's central pressure dropped to 988 mb since this morning, but has maximum sustained wind speeds that have decreased to 50mph. The National Hurricane Center has extended the tropical storm warning eastward to Destin, Florida. Since this morning, New Orleans Lakefront Airport has received about another inch of rain for a storm total of 6.87 inches. Rainfall estimates from radar suggest some locations, especially close to the coast, might have already seen up to 8 inches of rain from Tropical Storm Lee. Although the New Orleans area is in a dry slot of the storm, more rain can be expected through the night in the form of isolated storms with heavy downpours. Louisiana's Jefferson Parish officials ordered a mandatory evacuation for three towns earlier today: Lafitte, Crown Point, and Barataria. Heavy rain and tidal surge pushed the water of Bayou Barataria into the surrounding low-lying areas, and officials warned that if residents didn't leave, they might become stranded for a couple of days.
Figure 1. Infrared satellite of Tropical Storm Lee captured around 6pm EDT. Source: NOAA.
Forecast for Tropical Storm Lee
Lee's forecast hasn't changed much since this morning. Dry air is being pulled in from the west, which is giving the storm a very subtropical appearance, and is mitigating intensification. Earlier today, two centers of circulation were visible in satellite and confirmed by Hurricane Hunters. The centers were rotating around each other in full Fujiwara fashion, and although they were scientifically interesting, it meant that there was no clear center of circulation, and probably helped to weaken storm. The National Hurricane Center expects that Lee will come ashore in Louisiana later this evening and linger over the region until Monday, when it will finally be pushed north by a mid-latitude wave.
Lee's tornado threat
A tornado watch is in effect for southern Louisiana and portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle until 10pm CDT. The forecast is for small and short-lived tornadoes, but the threat for tornado damage is still there. A PhD student at Georgia Tech (and my former group member), James Belanger, runs a skillful model to predict the number of tornadoes that a tropical cyclone could produce. The model uses variables such as the size of the storm, the maximum wind speed, and moisture. For the 2008 hurricane season, the model accurately predicted the number of tornadoes that would be spawned from a quite a few tropical cyclones, including Hurricane Dolly, Tropical Storm Edouard, Tropical Storm Fay, and Hurricane Ike. Given today's forecast track and intensity, Belanger's model is forecasting 30-40 tornadoes could be spawned from Tropical Storm Lee, mainly in the Southeast states east of and including Louisiana.
Interestingly, although the nose of dry air that's being pulled in from drought-stricken Texas (visible in the satellite image above) is acting to keep the storm weak, it's also playing a role in the number of tornadoes that could be spawned from Lee. The dry air is a crucial component for the storm to develop discrete, isolated thunderstorm cells (versus a large shield of heavy rain). The discrete cells, just like during severe weather season, are the storms that are most capable of producing a tornado.
Angela
Reader Comments
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I also have wondered why NOAA continues to say the storm is moving NNW or N when (Unless that is the ULL) the storm has gone NW and then W and now looks more SW. Back over water.
Ok, I must admit.. I might have snickered once or twice watching the bands of rain going over your house.. and thinking of you in flip flops on the beach :)
THANK YOU!
Meaning: Sea of bitterness, rebelliousness, wished for child
NEXRAD Radar
Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Lee is still trying to make landfall??
I think it may get wrapped tonight, wbu?
Lee is starting to get to be a big boy now. I am just glad he is not 300 miles further south.
We got yer back :o)
Just about...at least we are getting rain...
True story
Ages ago we lived on a farm with a local exchange and party lines. We had the same exchange lady for years! ( 3 shorts and a long was our house :)
Fast forward about 15 years, no more exchanges but overseas calls still went through an operator.
My dad was overseas and decided to call home. He got through to the Australian exchange and a lady said "what number please?"
He gave the number and then the lady said..." Oh, is that you Mr ****, I haven't heard your voice for years!" and the conversation went on...hehehe
Amazing that she recognised his voice so many years later :) it was cool growing up then
Center is on the beach near Pecan Island
Link, please?
Back in the day. Not taking care of your horse was like not changing the oil in your car.
I want more rain.. I had a dab, which is more than I have had in 4 months, and I hate to be greedy, but I need more darn it!
Rain hasnt made it this far ...
Looking at the WU radar doesn't show that obvious southerly direction like this one.
Holy smokes, there ARE two COCs.
If I can just figure out a way to post this still I have on googleearth.
apparently??? I really am confused ...LOL Cant imagine what it must be like in New Orleans and surrounding areas and I hope this storm does not get any stronger on land...surely it cant. I do not want any TORNADOS, But I think I am far enough away that we dont have to worry.
Lee wants to wrap around the core...but too much dry air...what's this about a move to the south??
Good night all! May your weather be what you need it to be.
The pumps are doing a good job so far....right?
I got 1/4" in Dayton so far but it looks like it is about over here for now. I wish Lee would inch over 20 more miles.
Thanks again HTG. I'm not trying to cause any more trouble than I naturally do.
Not trying very hard.
Where are you? I am in South east Texas, and It has been raining all day in The Golden triangle and as far North as Newton and jasper Counties with wind gusts. i hope you get some rain.
Had to swap my flip flops for galoshes this weekend. But you can bet that the flip flips will be back on feet by mid-week!
and the days when a phone number didn't have 7 numbers, there were party lines (and everyone who did have a phone really did know everyone's business), etc, etc, etc....i remember em too
No, not a move to the south. I am just glad that it is not 300 miles south of its present location. As big as it is getting, that would not be good.
AAAHHH. Thank you, I think I can even hear the british accent on that one:)
How about
Winchester Cathederall
Your gettin me down
You stood & you watched her
My baby left town:)
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
1158 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2011
Aviation...MVFR ceilings and visible in moisture wraparound from the
northerly winds into the circulation of ts Lee. Used NAM motion
for evolution of this system which takes a weakening Lee southwest
into the Gulf. Precipitation with MVFR ceiling/visible should be the predominant
condition and this is reflected in this taf package through Sunday evening.
Sweeney
&&
Link
Relax - Dr. M said the rain event was over on Sat AM.
West side of Houston ...it sprinkled here and has been windy but thats about it. Although the cooler temps are awesome
That trend you've shown is down again..
Lee is feeling its Mojo tonight.
And that is only in case of extreme emergency. Kind of like the after effects of a hurricane...
It is not moving SW it is sitting stationary on the coast near pecan island. Possible that it has moved 5 miles West or so but that is it.
Link
For my fellow Texans by a fellow Texan.
Come on, Lee, head west!!
Head west my son!
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