Tropical Storm Lee lingers off Louisiana coast
Tropical Storm Lee continues to bring heavy rain, moderately strong wind gusts, and tornado risk to the Gulf Coast states east of Texas. Lee is 55 miles south of Lafayette, Louisiana, and is drifting almost due north at 4 mph. Lee's central pressure dropped to 988 mb since this morning, but has maximum sustained wind speeds that have decreased to 50mph. The National Hurricane Center has extended the tropical storm warning eastward to Destin, Florida. Since this morning, New Orleans Lakefront Airport has received about another inch of rain for a storm total of 6.87 inches. Rainfall estimates from radar suggest some locations, especially close to the coast, might have already seen up to 8 inches of rain from Tropical Storm Lee. Although the New Orleans area is in a dry slot of the storm, more rain can be expected through the night in the form of isolated storms with heavy downpours. Louisiana's Jefferson Parish officials ordered a mandatory evacuation for three towns earlier today: Lafitte, Crown Point, and Barataria. Heavy rain and tidal surge pushed the water of Bayou Barataria into the surrounding low-lying areas, and officials warned that if residents didn't leave, they might become stranded for a couple of days.
Figure 1. Infrared satellite of Tropical Storm Lee captured around 6pm EDT. Source: NOAA.
Forecast for Tropical Storm Lee
Lee's forecast hasn't changed much since this morning. Dry air is being pulled in from the west, which is giving the storm a very subtropical appearance, and is mitigating intensification. Earlier today, two centers of circulation were visible in satellite and confirmed by Hurricane Hunters. The centers were rotating around each other in full Fujiwara fashion, and although they were scientifically interesting, it meant that there was no clear center of circulation, and probably helped to weaken storm. The National Hurricane Center expects that Lee will come ashore in Louisiana later this evening and linger over the region until Monday, when it will finally be pushed north by a mid-latitude wave.
Lee's tornado threat
A tornado watch is in effect for southern Louisiana and portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle until 10pm CDT. The forecast is for small and short-lived tornadoes, but the threat for tornado damage is still there. A PhD student at Georgia Tech (and my former group member), James Belanger, runs a skillful model to predict the number of tornadoes that a tropical cyclone could produce. The model uses variables such as the size of the storm, the maximum wind speed, and moisture. For the 2008 hurricane season, the model accurately predicted the number of tornadoes that would be spawned from a quite a few tropical cyclones, including Hurricane Dolly, Tropical Storm Edouard, Tropical Storm Fay, and Hurricane Ike. Given today's forecast track and intensity, Belanger's model is forecasting 30-40 tornadoes could be spawned from Tropical Storm Lee, mainly in the Southeast states east of and including Louisiana.
Interestingly, although the nose of dry air that's being pulled in from drought-stricken Texas (visible in the satellite image above) is acting to keep the storm weak, it's also playing a role in the number of tornadoes that could be spawned from Lee. The dry air is a crucial component for the storm to develop discrete, isolated thunderstorm cells (versus a large shield of heavy rain). The discrete cells, just like during severe weather season, are the storms that are most capable of producing a tornado.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Psst...If it is raining right now, turn the porch light on, and point the camera upwards where you can see rain, but not have it directly on the light :)
Sure those aren't parachuting illegals?
I am glad they worked for you...I am surprised they had not dry rotted! LOL
BTW, I am right across 45 from you in Imperial Oaks :o) Howdy Neighbor!!
You are correct!! I live in Buna, Tx and it has been raining at my house since 7 AM...no torrential rain just a moderate steady soaker...you can almost hear the grass and trees sighing!!
nope, they sneak over on foot!!
Conditions deterorating now here in galveston. Gusts up to 40 and sustained about 25. Interestingly as low as the winds are, we are having some power issues already.
Lee itself seems to be either not moving or drifting NW.
Will let you guys know as power permits how things go here tonight. My friend in lake charles letting me know via phone he is getting 45 mph gusts there.
Maybe, the presence of SW flow from the upper trough adding some divergence that is not usually found in TS tornadoes. Generally, more of an anticyclonic outflow is more common
Standard disclaimer about not believing everything you read on a weather blog applies.
My poor dad in Cleburne is wishing he had a little of your luck. Sent a picture of their scorched lawn day before yesterday and they still have blow down from the tornados a couple months just cooking in the sun all over the neighborhood.
Stay Safe! With the dry trees, even a little wind will be enough to break branches off and send them into a power line, causing power outages. That is what is happening in Louisiana.
LMAO...
Looks like it's showing it getting larger too from what I can tell Pat.
That's funny PcolaBouy!!
If Lee moves W what does that do to Katia?
And that's why I have a lot of canned food in the cabinet. Houston has a lot of trees, and a lot of points of failure as a result. :(
I avoid those. ;)
WFUS54 KLIX 040158
TORLIX
MSC047-040245-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0131.110904T0158Z-110904T0245Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
858 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HARRISON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...LONG BEACH...GULFPORT...
* UNTIL 945 PM CDT
* AT 855 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
A SQUALL LINE MOVING INTO HARRISON COUNTY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LONG
BEACH...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PASS CHRISTIAN...LYMAN AND SAUCIER.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
LAT...LON 3036 8907 3035 8909 3030 8928 3031 8930
3035 8929 3037 8934 3064 8934 3066 8931
3065 8925 3069 8923 3068 8904 3039 8900
TIME...MOT...LOC 0156Z 169DEG 31KT 3027 8909
98/SO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab LA Page
or in tunnels
That looks promising for Houston and surrounding area..
I'm down at Rice, I haven't seen any broken branches yet, however there was a bit of leafy debris in the streets around here this afternoon.
Looks like it to me also!
Lee and Katia really have nothing to do with one another at the moment but they might have a date off the east coast in 4 or 5 days
yup.
Conditions don't seem to favor it happening that quickly, but hey, it's 2011, has anything acted like it's supposed to this hurricane season?
Don't really need to know that...
One word: SAWEEET!
You now have a friend in stormpetrol. :)
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Link
Little confusing to me. If the high out west is starting to affect Lee you would think the water vapor loop would be flattening out on that side. The converse is happening though as HoustonTxGal's wet sidewalk proves.
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