Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

and the 1st time torcon hit 10

The scars on the earth will heal, the scars on our hearts last forever...

Thank You for the post Dr. Masters!

Tuscaloosa 1 year later...

Moisture field just touching the extreme S.E.Florida coastline now.

"One year ago today, an astonishing outbreak of atmospheric violence unparalleled in world history hit the Southeast U.S. A total of 199 tornadoes touched down, including eleven violent EF-4s and four maximum-strength EF-5s. The 4-day period April 25 - 28 was the largest and most damaging severe weather outbreak in world history, with a total of 358 tornadoes, $10.4 billion in damage, and 321 deaths."

You heard it from the Doc, not the second but the WORST Outbreak in history.

Hopefully we never see anything like this again.... Thanks for the post Doc.

Thanks,Doc,certainly will be a day in history those people down there will never forget.There is no way I can even imagine what those people were thinking when those tornadoes hit.

Thanks Dr. Time to take our eyes off the Oceanic loops for today and start looking at CONUS loops and Doppler Radar conditions. Hoping and praying for the best for our people up there in tornado alley today.

omposite map of all Tornado (red), Severe Thunderstorm (yellow) and Flood warnings (green) issued throughout the major tornado outbreak on April 27, 2011.

Re: #4 -- Thankyou, ReedZone! I get tired of the TV shows and news articles that continue to hold up the 1974 Super Outbreak as the worst in history, when we've had data for many months now showing the tornado count and severity of the 2011 outbreak was greater. As I understand it, not only the total 2011 Super Outbreak but the April 27th 24-hour tornado total BOTH surpass the '74 event.

Thanks for driving home that point.

Thanks DRM. A horrible anniversary. Hope all stay safe today.

That video still takes my breath away every time I see it. Will be praying no one sees anything like that in a populated area today. Simply, terrifyingly, amazing.

Damage from an EF-5 tornado which struck the town of Phil Campbell, Alabama during the April 27, 2011 tornado outbreak. Photo is taken from Oliver Street, looking east towards the Post Office.

Car in a cellar is brutal..


97W & 91A are looking a little livelier. 90S is new but not real impressive.. & we have a blob trying to form in the Caribbean. Models have it inhospitable or don't pick up on it so much NASA/GMAO GEOS-5 keeps it weak, sheared.. puts it in Nicaragua/East Honduras. May have 92L in the next few days, one way or the other..

Here is a first-hand account of that day from a friend and fellow Wunderblogger Johnny Parker from Smithville, MS.

Also more information on the the outbreak and a small portion of Portlights massive relief efforts after the event. Link

Winds so powerful, that it can literally damage the streets...

Just in case it wasn't seen, and because some interesting debate rebuttals remain unanswered:
Inre blog2081comment454 jeffs713, I fail to see how anybody could possibly take offense with what you said. More later, but thanks for quoting my corrected version (added some reasoning behind my disagreement).

Still get back to it later: haven't time to present decent counter-arguments at the moment.

Quoting hydrus:
Winds so powerful, that is can literally damage the streets...

Damage the streets... That road has been effectively removed!!

Here are the salient points of the SPC Outlook cited for today in the plains cited by Dr. M. above:

Day 1 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0710 am CDT Friday Apr 27 2012

..there is a MDT risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of central/eastern Kansas
and west central MO...

..an active severe weather event is expected later this afternoon
and evening over parts of the Central Plains...

..Central Plains...
Morning water vapor loops show a compact upper shortwave trough over the central rockies. This feature will eject eastward into the plains today. An associated 70 knot middle level speed maximum will overspread parts of OK/Kansas while the main surface low tracks across Kansas. Strong southerly low level winds ahead of the low will help a
warm front lift northward across eastern Kansas. The end result will be a focused area of enhanced threat of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes later this afternoon and evening.

Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this morning over western Kansas ahead of the main upper system. Present indications are that these storms may continue through the morning and intensify further by early afternoon over central Kansas as a combination of daytime heating and moisture advection destabilize the region. The cluster of
storms is expected to track eastward along/north of primary instability gradient through the day across central/eastern Kansas and eventually toward the kc area by early evening. Backed low level winds and enhanced vertical shear near the warm front will promote supercell structures capable of large hail. Storms may eventually become surface based by late afternoon with an increasing risk of tornadoes /possibly strong/.

13 Skyepony: ...& we have a blob trying to form in the Caribbean...

It's time for BLOB WATCH 2012 already?

Both the CMC and the GFS keep things interesting for Florida.

Thanks Jeff...

Thanks Dr. Masters....good morning all

Quoting aspectre:
Just in case it wasn't seen, and because some interesting debate rebuttals remain unanswered:
Inre blog2081comment454 jeffs713, I fail to see how anybody could possibly take offense with what you said. More later, but thanks for quoting my corrected version (added some of the reasoning behind my disagreement).

Still get back to it later: haven't time to present decent counter-arguments at the moment.

I posted my little blurb about people taking offense because several of my recent posts (over the last week) have gotten several people pretty upset. I just wanted to pre-empt any claims of being offensive that time.

Quoting MTWX:


Damage the streets... That road has been effectively removed!!

This church took a serious beating, but is still standing. A testament to the people who built it.

Quoting hydrus:
omposite map of all Tornado (red), Severe Thunderstorm (yellow) and Flood warnings (green) issued throughout the major tornado outbreak on April 27, 2011.

That was a crazy outbreak...what's up hydrus?

Quoting nigel20:

My, my, what a persistent blob you are!

Quoting Dr. Jeff Masters:
One year ago today, an astonishing outbreak of atmospheric violence unparalleled in world history hit the Southeast U.S.

Ehhhh.... that seems very very subjective....

Quoting nigel20:

Like I said yesterday, if this was hurricane season, that could be serious trouble for folks down there.

Mike Bettes
‎*INSIDER INFO* Just spoke with @twcdrforbes. He's upping the TORCON to 8 for Southeast Kansas. Stay alert & be prepared.

Quoting hydrus:
This church took a serious beating, but is still standing. A testament to the people who built it.

I actually drove past there! It is in Downtown Cullman! I will never forget it, the scene just down the block was quite grim and heartbreaking, as multitudes of individuals worked by hand to remove large fallen trees off of and reposition the fallen tombstones of loved ones in a cemetary the tornado tore through... I had to pull over to wipe my eyes before continuing with my load of supplies to deliver.

Quoting ScottLincoln:


Ehhhh.... that seems very very subjective....

How so?

Quoting hydrus:
Like I said yesterday, if this was hurricane season, that could be serious trouble for folks down there.

Agreed

Watching the 5:40 video, it's amazing how much emotion still bubbles to the surface. I'm not the overly emotional type and have been hardened by the harsh realities of life; as many of us have, and yet this brings my empathy right back to the surface. I'm sure we all have ample reason to complain about life at times, but at least we get to get up tomorrow and try again. Seize the day, because in the blink of an eye it can all be gone.

Met Service of Jamaica

NEWS RELEASE

April 27, 2012 at 7:00 a.m.

*** FLASH FLOOD WATCH DISCONTINUED BUT RAINS TO CONTINUE ***

Although rainfall is expected to continue over sections of Jamaica into the weekend, the Meteorological Service has discontinued the Flash Flood Watch for low-lying and flood-prone areas of all parishes with immediate effect.

Satellite imagery and rainfall data indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated with the Trough that moved across Jamaica and is now west of island, has decreased significantly overnight. Generally cloudy conditions however remain across the island. The forecast is for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to affect mainly central and western parishes particularly during the afternoon today.

The Trough is expected to linger west of Jamaica and is likely to produce occasional rainfall across the island especially on Sunday and Monday.

Strong winds should persist mainly over southern parishes and offshore waters. As a result the Small Craft Warning remains in effect for offshore areas of the south coast.


vtj

Link

In honor of the anniversary of the April 27, 2011, Tornado Outbreak, the staff of the NWS Huntsville, Ala., Weather Forecast Office put together a special Web page and video presentation looking back on the event. The Web page includes updated information about storms surveys and event statistics, a page honoring those lost to the storms, and links to videos of interviews with NWS Huntsville staff, describing their experiences during the event.

As we mark the anniversary of this devastating event — and the first-ever National Severe Weather Preparedness Week, please take a moment to remember the lessons learned from last year’s storms, as well as those who lost their lives.

Quoting nigel20:

That was a crazy outbreak...what's up hydrus?

Hard to believe its been a year already. EF5 damage in Smithville MS

Quoting Tribucanes:
Watching the 5:40 video, it's amazing how much emotion still bubbles to the surface. I'm not the overly emotional type and have been hardened by the harsh realities of life; as many of us have, and yet this brings my empathy right back to the surface. I'm sure we all have ample reason to complain about life at times, but at least we get to get up tomorrow and try again. Seize the day, because in the blink of an eye it can all be gone.

You and me both brother!

Quoting AussieStorm:
Mike Bettes
‎*INSIDER INFO* Just spoke with @twcdrforbes. He's upping the TORCON to 8 for Southeast Kansas. Stay alert & be prepared.

That's a big jump, but well-warranted. I underestimated the serverity of this event.

May there be peace in our hearts and minds as we continue our journey. Blessings, Fred L Hammond.

April 27 2011, Tuscaloosa, AL

After—the “Oh My God’s,” after—the tears,
After—the fears, unfounded and founded,
After—the adrenaline rush,
emerge the vacant eyes that stare
into the vortex of nothing
where something else once stood.
We—start the slow pace walks

through the thick black strap molasses of time.
Was it this morning—last week—yesterday?
that I—that you—that he—that she
asked, Is there life after all this?
Beneath convoluted rubble
is there hope of returning
to Eden’s garden?

The birds sing songs of life’s affirmation.
The flowers offer a rainbow’s promise.
Still some things take more than three days
to resurrect to their glory.
Tell me the songbirds’ song is true.
Tell me the flowers
are honest in their beauty.

Quoting MTWX:


I actually drove past there! It is in Downtown Cullman! I will never forget it, the scene just down the block was quite grim and heartbreaking, as multitudes of individuals worked by hand to remove large fallen trees off of and reposition the fallen tombstones of loved ones in a cemetary the tornado tore through... I had to pull over to wipe my eyes before continuing with my load of supplies to deliver.

I can understand. I have had moments like that( especially after Katrina ).I will never be able to erase from my mind some of the horrors I have seen.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

How so?

That was my question as well.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's a big jump, but well-warranted. I underestimated the serverity of this event.

Jim Reed
Strong tornadoes and destructive hail are possible across much of Kansas today, including Wichita. Be on the alert!!

I can officially say, we are approaching the time to watch for our first Tropical wave of the season...
Earliest time for a tropical wave to emerge is May 2.
Start watching Mid-Africa over the weekend and into next week.

Quoting MTWX:


I actually drove past there! It is in Downtown Cullman! I will never forget it, the scene just down the block was quite grim and heartbreaking, as multitudes of individuals worked by hand to remove large fallen trees off of and reposition the fallen tombstones of loved ones in a cemetary the tornado tore through... I had to pull over to wipe my eyes before continuing with my load of supplies to deliver.

Here's a pic of the Cullman Tornado.

Texas Storm Chasers
A busy severe weather day is expected in Central/Eastern Kansas into Western Missouri. All modes of severe weather are likely, including tornadoes. Further south into much of Oklahoma and Texas, the cap will remain in place preventing any storms. We're chasing today and will have live video up shortly at www.texasstormchasers.com/live

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0603
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 AM CDT FRI APR 27 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS...FAR N-CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 271515Z - 271715Z

SUPERCELLS SHOULD FORM ALONG EWD SURGING DRYLINE IN CNTRL KS TO
PERHAPS N-CNTRL OK BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG LOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST MODERATELY LARGE
BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY YIELD PRIMARY INITIAL THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES. THE PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE IS 95
PERCENT.

15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 996 MB CYCLONE AROUND 30 SE GLD WITH A
SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT ARCING SEWD TOWARDS THE OZARK PLATEAU
AND A SURGING DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD INTO WRN OK. SHOWERS AND TSTMS
HAVE BEEN PREVALENT NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT WITH ABUNDANT STRATUS IN
THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR OVER MUCH OF KS. HOWEVER...STRONGER HEATING IS
OCCURRING IN NRN OK WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S AND CLOUD BREAKS APPEAR TO BE OCCURRING IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR FROM COMANCHE TO PAWNEE COUNTIES IN SWRN KS. MODIFIED 12Z
DDC RAOB AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT EVEN WITH MODEST
HEATING...THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MINIMAL
INHIBITION ALONG THE DRYLINE BY MIDDAY.

ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SLYS HAVE COMMENCED WEAKENING WITH SRN EXTENT IN
THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR /PER TIME SERIES OF HAVILAND KS
PROFILER/...0-1 KM SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN AOA 15 KT WITH STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR RELEGATED ALONG AND NE OF THE WARM FRONT. WITH
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50 KT AND MLCAPE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 2500
J/KG IN S-CNTRL KS/N-CNTRL OK...THIS SETUP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES PRIMARILY IN
CNTRL KS.

..GRAMS.. 04/27/2012


ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...G LD...

LAT...LON 39169987 39399982 39589935 39659873 39489790 38899712
38099678 36939674 36729711 36659744 36759810 36989874
37689902 38369933 39059982 39169987

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

How so?

It's one thing to use an objective classification like "most tornadoes in a 24hr period" or "most damage from tornadoes in 24hrs" but the wording used... most violent in world history, is much more subjective. Implication seems to be that it could mean most violent series of tornadoes, or that it could mean all of world history. The latter begs all sorts of questions... just official records? unofficial records? an assumption that we've never had such a large outbreak sequence since humans started inhabiting the planet?

Quoting hydrus:
Hard to believe its been a year already. EF5 damage in Smithville MS

OMG, i cannot imagine..living there and this, damn total destruction,geez right down to the slab, everything you worked so hard for..gone..they sure need to wake up, building code wise and start redesigning how homes are built out there in tornado alley,this isnt a once in a lifetime event, its every year..concrete homes, bunker style, gee

1974:

* $3.5 billion (2005 USD)
* 319 fatalities.
* 6 EF5s (record).
* 148 tornadoes in a 24-hour period.

2011:

* 208 tornadoes in a 24-hour period (record).
* ~11 billion (2011 USD) in damage (record).
* 4 EF5s
* 321 fatalities

Quoting ScottLincoln:


It's one thing to use an objective classification like "most tornadoes in a 24hr period" or "most damage from tornadoes in 24hrs" but the wording used... most violent in world history, is much more subjective. Implication seems to be that it could mean most violent series of tornadoes, or that it could mean all of world history. The latter begs all sorts of questions... just official records? unofficial records? an assumption that we've never had such a large outbreak sequence since humans started inhabiting the planet?

What Doc I believe was referring to was the fact these tornadoes hit fairly big metro areas and as a result killed hundreds.