U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record
The past twelve months were the warmest twelve months in U.S. history, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Tuesday, in their monthly "State of the Climate" report. Temperatures in the contiguous U.S. during May 2011 - April 2012 broke the previous record for warmest 12-month period, set November 1999 - October 2000, by 0.1°F. The past twelve months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer, 4th warmest winter, and warmest March on record. Twenty-two states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional nineteen states were top ten warm. NOAA said that the January - April 2012 period was also the warmest January - April period since record keeping began in 1895. The average temperature of 45.4°F during January - April 2012 was 5.4°F above the 20th century average for the period, and smashed the previous record set in 2006 by an unusually large margin--1.6°F.
Figure 1. The ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Figure 2. The average temperature of 45.4°F during January - April 2012 was the warmest on record: 5.4°F above the 20th century average for the period, and was 1.6°F above the previous record set in 2006. January - April temperatures have been rising at about 1.9°F per century since 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
April 2012: 3rd warmest on record
April 2012 was the third warmest April in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Ten states had a top-ten warmest April, and no states were cooler than average. But what's really remarkable about April was that eight states--Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia--had average April temperatures cooler than their March temperatures, even though their April temperatures were still above the long-term average for the month. These statistics show just how remarkably warm March 2012 was. Most extreme was Illinois, where April 2012 temperatures ranked in the top 20% for warmest Aprils, yet were cooler than March 2012 temperatures.
Figure 3. Temperature rankings for April 2012 in the Contiguous U.S. Ten states had a top-ten warmest April, and no states were cooler than average. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Figure 4. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - April shows that 2012 had the most extreme weather on record.
Most extreme January - April on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), an index that tracks the highest 10 percent and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 42% during the January-April period, over twice the average value, and the greatest on record. Remarkably, 82% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically, and 68% had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%, with records going back to 1910. The previous records were 56% (2000) and 57% (1992) for maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions during January - April was 19%, which was the 17th greatest since 1910. Extremes in precipitation as computed by the CEI were near average for the January - April period.
Jeff Masters
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We had something like that on our news too. I know something like 70% of the trees in Hermann Park in Houston died last year from the drought. The only way I could imagine them being able to tell the date was from Tree rings but even then, that would have to be difficult to conclude. I just hope I (or anybody)ever has experience anything like that again.
I see La Nina/El Nino referred to as climatic events but then I also see references to 30 years of data being needed to properly characterize climate. The ENSO (La Nina/El Nino) is a lot shorter time scale than 30 years and also shorter than the seven year drought time frame you have. I suppose without a meaningful definiton of "climate" the answer is "it depends" but I'm not sure on what.
Why would it be difficult? Get enough tree rings and you'd know. Live oaks and bald cypress are long-lived trees. Found this article on a study published here if that helps. Note from the news story:
"Of course, for tree-ring studies to work, the trees must survive the drought. The Texas Forest Service estimated this week that the current drought, which is the most intense since records began in 1895, killed up to 10 percent of the state's trees."
Edit: they aren't referring to tree rings when they say "since records began".
Definitely a possibility... The GFS had been showing a storm in the East Pac for several days but has since dropped the idea of development out there and moved it to the Atlantic
The 18z is running so we'll see what it says...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
458 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2012
TXZ183-202-102245-
KINNEY-VAL VERDE-
458 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2012
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN VAL VERDE AND
WESTERN KINNEY COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...
AT 453 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTH OF DEL RIO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH.
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.
LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
DEL RIO...
LAUGHLIN AFB...
IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.
THE HEAVY RAIN MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES...LOW WATER
CROSSINGS AND UNDERPASSES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ACROSS FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
$$
Maybe. It's entirely possible though it's vice-versa, I recall for Alex and Arlene this issue was present for both. Either way, the main inhibitor for any quick development will be competing monsoonal circulations in the EPAC and ATL. Which ever is larger and is able to consolidate more energy is the one that will win.
Thanks for that information. I was stating it would be difficult to date back to the 1700s.
EPAC storm at the end of the run.
Grothar would know.
lol!!! \(-.-/) (\-.-)/ \(-.-/) (\-.-)/ \(-.-/) (\-.-)/
Well I'm quite far from a plant scientist, I don't know much about grass, all I know is I have a mix of the common grasses seen around Central Florida.
What is that near the Carolinas?
Just a low pressure area...I think its the one currently over Texas.
Yeah, around here it too seems we suffer drought a lot more often than having average rain or above average rain. While it seems much of the U.S. appears to be getting more extreme with rainfall and thunderstorms in comparison to normal, it seems that overall rainfall and thunderstorms are doing the opposite here in Florida, becoming less intense and less often. I haven't done any research to prove it's true, so I'm not going to make any claims as if it is fact, but it sure feels this way...
Maybe it's just more of a long term climate cycle, I just hope we aren't actually experiencing climate change in Florida, granted less destructive weather is a plus, but less rainfall isn't...
There better be some return to more classic Florida weather over the next 5 years, because over the last 5 years things have not been the same.
shush
Wonder what effect waterspouts have on oilrigs.
There was recently a story on Texas Parks & Wildlife on PBS about it.
The East Pac does and well, we have been leaning into it as well earlier on avg.
Maybe a good subject for a Graduate.
What can old Texas trees teach us about our climate? One researcher is finding out. Follow Dr. Malcolm Cleaveland from the University of Arkansas as he taps the secrets of the cypress trees and learns the warnings they may hold for water planners. See how tree rings give clues to years of drought and floods.
See our PBS show schedule on our web site
http://www.tpwd.state.tx.us/newsmedia/tv/
Floyd caused much traffic mayhem in this part of what you erroneously...and annoyingly...refer to as 'the Carolinas'
I agree... There were too many differences in this run from from the last several runs to put any trust in it.
Having said that I'm very skeptical of this potential storm... Until it gets support from the Euro I'm not buying it.
Remember 13 that the 00z and 12z runs always have the best data incorporated.
I should probably warn you before we go into hurricane season that the ECMWF is a highly reliable model. The model is not god, it does miss multiple systems during the season.
I think it'll catch onto it eventually.
Yes I agree it should now, mays have become what junes used to be,
For a graduate to get their doctorate
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