The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: a book review

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:48 PM GMT on Μάιος 16, 2012

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No climate scientist has been subject to more attacks on their science and character than Penn State's Michael Mann, originator of the famed "hockey stick" graph of Earth's temperature history. Dr. Mann has an excellent new book called "The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines" that takes the reader on a fascinating journey to the front lines the high-stakes battles between climate scientists and their detractors. It's a must-read for every serious student of Earth's climate. Along the way, you'll learn about tree rings, the IPCC process, the fossil fuel industry's savvy PR campaigns to discredit climate change science, and get an insider's view of the notorious stolen emails of "climategate."

For those unfamiliar with the "hockey stick", the shape of the graph showing Earth's temperature has a long, relatively flat portion representing the period 1000 AD - 1800 AD--the shaft of the hockey stick--followed by a sharp upward rise that began in the late 1800s and continues to this day--the blade of the hockey stick. When Dr. Mann first published the hockey stick graph in papers he wrote in 1998 and 1999, it quickly became a central icon in the climate change debate. As he writes in "The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars," the hockey stick graph "told an easily understood story with a simple picture: that a sharp and highly unusual rise in atmospheric warming was occurring on Earth." Contrarians bent on discrediting the science of climate change have fiercely attacked the hockey stick, attempting to portray it as the key piece of evidence upon which all of climate change science depends (which is not correct, since many different data sets unrelated to the tree ring studies under attack show a hockey stick-like shape.) The contrarians have adopted "the Serengeti strategy" towards Dr. Mann--"a tried-and-true tactic of the climate change denial campaign...isolate individual scientists just as predators on the Serengeti Plain of Africa hunt their prey: picking off vulnerable individuals from the rest of the herd."

The history of the hockey stick
The book starts with some interesting background on Dr. Mann's career. He got into climate science by accident--while working on his Ph.D. in physics at Yale, funding got tight, and he elected to switch to the Department of Geology and Geophysics, where funding to perform research on natural climate cycles was available. In the mid-1990s, while working on his Ph.D., he helped discover the decades-long natural cycle of alternating warm and cool ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean thought to be responsible for the active hurricane period that began in 1995. He gave the phenomenon the now widely-used name, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), during an impromptu interview with science writer Dick Kerr. After receiving his Ph.D. in 1996, Dr. Mann moved on into using statistical methods to study past climate, as gleaned from tree ring studies. He takes the reader on a 5-page college-level discussion of the main technique used, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and shows how his famed "hockey stick" graph came about. It's one of the best descriptions I've seen on how PCA works (though it will be too technical for some.) His inaugural PCA work showing that the 1990s were likely the warmest decade in at least the past 600 years was published in 1998. Since the paper coincidentally happened to be published on Earth Day during the warmest year in Earth's history, the paper received a huge amount of media attention. His follow-up 1999 paper went further, suggesting that the 1990s were the warmest decade in the past 1,000 years, and 1998 was the warmest year. Dr. Mann was appointed as one of the lead authors of the 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, the massive United Nations summary of climate change science that comes out every six years. We learn some interesting details about the approval process for the 2001 IPCC report, like the fact for two days, the scientists haggled with the Saudi Arabian delegation about one word in the Summary for Policy Makers. The IPCC report's summary requires unanimous approval by all nations, and the Saudis objected to the language that said, "the balance of evidence suggests an appreciable human influence on climate." They debated 30 different alternatives before finally settling on the language, "the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on climate."


Figure 1. The hockey stick graph as it appeared in the IPCC Third Assessment Report WG1 (2001) summary, Figure 2.20, Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction. Tree rings, corals, ice cores, and historical records are shown in blue, and instrumental data in red, from AD 1000 to 1999. The grey shaded region indicates the uncertainty in the annual temperature estimates (there is a 95% certainty that the temperature for any given year lies in the gray shaded region.) The thick black line is a smoothed version which highlights the long-term variations. A similar version of this graph appeared in Dr. Mann's original 1999 paper. Climate scientist Dr. Jerry Mahlman was responsible for giving this graph the nickname, the "hockey stick".

The battle begins
The majority of the book focuses on the battles over the hockey stick that ensued in 1998, as soon as Dr. Mann published his research. He writes: For more than a decade, the scientific community, in its effort to communicate the threat of climate change, has had to fight against the headwind of this industry-funded disinformation effort. The collective battles are what I term the "Climate wars". The battle raged furiously through 2006, when an extensive review of the hockey stick was performed by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS)--an organization founded in 1863 by Abraham Lincoln to "investigate, examine, experiment, and report upon any subject of science" for the purpose of informing government policy. The NAS reaffirmed the validity of the hockey stick, concluding: "based on the analyses presented in the original papers by Mann et al. and this new supporting evidence, the committee finds it plausible that the Northern Hemisphere was warmer during the last few decades of the 20th century than during any comparable period over the preceding millennium." Dr. Mann writes, "One might think that this would have put an end to the accusations once and for all. But one would be wrong."

In November 2009, a few weeks before the December international climate summit in Copenhagen, the RealClimate.org website that Dr. Mann contributes to was hacked into, and a file with emails stolen from the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit (CRU) was posted. Dr. Mann explains in detail how these "climategate" emails were taken out context and distorted to appear scandalous by "a massive public relations campaign conducted by major players in the climate change denial movement." To illustrate, he gives the example of Isaac Newton's writings, which can easily be taken out context and distorted to give the impression that he was guilty of "conspiring to avoid public scrutiny," "insulting dissenting scientists," "manipulation of evidence," "knowingly publishing scientific fraud," "suppression of evidence," "abusing the peer review system," and "insulting critics." In the end, no evidence of scientific misconduct was found by any of the five independent reviews of the affair, conducted by the UK Parliament, a CRU commission led by eminent geoscientist Lord Oxburgh, Penn State University, the National Science Foundation Office of the Inspector General, and the University of East Anglia. As a result of "climategate", nothing at all changed in the peer-reviewed scientific literature on climate change. It was a phony scandal.

A fierce advocate of good science
As I read the book, I was impressed by Dr. Mann's tremendous passion for science and knowledge that comes through. He loves figuring out how things work, and stands in fierce opposition to shoddy science and anti-science political attacks. I had the opportunity to sit down over a beer and talk with him at a recent conference, and he had little interest in talking politics. He'd much rather talk about science, and we had a great discussion about hurricanes--he's published several papers that use statistical techniques to estimate how many tropical storms we missed counting in the Atlantic before the advent of satellites. He frequently talks about how science works and the importance of following the scientific method in his book: "The scientific process--left to operate freely--is inherently self-correcting, even if the gears may at times turn more slowly than we would like...Scientists must be allowed to follow the path along which their intellectual inquiries take them, even if their findings and views might appear inconvenient to outside special interests." In the end, Dr. Mann is "cautiously optimistic" that humanity can meet the challenge of climate change, but acknowledges that climate scientists are in a "street fight" against well-funded climate change disinformers bent on obscuring the science.

Conclusion: five stars out of five
The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines is a must-read for every serious student of climate change science, and gets my highest rating: five stars out of five. The book is $17.78 at Amazon.com. True to its title, the book has spawned its own mini-war in the ratings section of Amazon, where readers either loved it or hated it--75% of the reviews were 4 or 5 stars, while 21% were 1 star reviews. Only 4% of the readers gave it a mediocre 2 or 3 star rating. Some of the 1 star reviews are no doubt there because “Watt’s Up With That,” one of the most prominent climate science confusion sites, put up a post calling on readers to attack Mann’s book and to attack positive reviews.

Links
Besieged by Climate Deniers, A Scientist Decides to Fight Back, an opinion piece by Dr. Mann that appeared on the Yale Environment 360 site on April 12.

Much-vindicated Michael Mann and Hockey Stick get final exoneration from Penn State — time for some major media apologies and retractions. Climateprogress.org blog post by Joe Romm.

An interview with Dr. Mann about his book, "The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars", appeared on Andy Revkin's Dot Earth blog in the New York Times on May 3.

My favorite climate science blog is realclimate.org, which Dr. Mann co-founded. You can see one of the latest challenges to the hockey stick answered in a May 11 post discussing tree ring records from Siberia.

I'll have a new post by Friday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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985. hydrus
02:32 PM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
Assuming a random distribution, there's a good chance we lie somewhere in the middle of the pack. That is, roughly half of all civilizations should be ahead of us, and roughly half should be behind. However, any with the means and motivation to closely monitor (and possibly visit) us would obviously have to be considerably higher up the evolutionary ladder than are we. As Carl Sagan put it, would have had to already move beyond their adolescence--that is, a stage of immature infatuation with self-destructive behaviors that prevent progress: tribalism, war, religion, runaway greed, and so on.

Anyway, speaking of climate, I notice Arctic Sea ice is disappearing at a rapid clip; over the past three weeks, 1.696 million km2 (an area nearly the size of Alaska) of ice has gone away. By way of comparison, 1.336 million km2 went away last year during the same period, and just 809,000 km2 was lost over the same period in 2007 (which ended with one of the lowest amounts of ice ever). FWIW, the period of most rapid ice loss generally runs from June 1 through mid-July. The pace begins to slow after that, and bottoms out around mid-September before increasing toward the time of fastest growth, which occurs from early October through mid-November.
Cool post Nea. I always wondered what a civilization that was 100,000 or even 200,000 years old would be like. Especially if they were like us physically. An Earth like planet that was 7 or 8 times the mass of our planet might have a more robust version of us. A smaller planet may have a slighter version. The technology would reach a level that we may have difficulty understanding. Like Neanderthals watching a shuttle launch, or Eratosthenes watching us use our cell phones.
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984. aspectre
12:14 PM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
deleted
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983. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
12:01 PM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
982. Neapolitan
12:00 PM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I don't get why everyone thinks that we are so evolutionary behind any other extraterrestrial race. IT took almost a billion years of perfect evolution to get to this point, to think that we are behind all other ET's is wrong I think.
Assuming a random distribution, there's a good chance we lie somewhere in the middle of the pack. That is, roughly half of all civilizations should be ahead of us, and roughly half should be behind. However, any with the means and motivation to closely monitor (and possibly visit) us would obviously have to be considerably higher up the evolutionary ladder than are we. As Carl Sagan put it, would have had to already move beyond their adolescence--that is, a stage of immature infatuation with self-destructive behaviors that prevent progress: tribalism, war, religion, runaway greed, and so on.

Anyway, speaking of climate, I notice Arctic Sea ice is disappearing at a rapid clip; over the past three weeks, 1.696 million km2 (an area nearly the size of Alaska) of ice has gone away. By way of comparison, 1.336 million km2 went away last year during the same period, and just 809,000 km2 was lost over the same period in 2007 (which ended with one of the lowest amounts of ice ever). FWIW, the period of most rapid ice loss generally runs from June 1 through mid-July. The pace begins to slow after that, and bottoms out around mid-September before increasing toward the time of fastest growth, which occurs from early October through mid-November.
Member Since: Νοέμβριος 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13613
981. nrtiwlnvragn
11:54 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
NOAA to issue 2012 Atlantic hurricane season outlook

NOAA will issue its initial outlook for the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season during a press conference at its Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami. FEMA will also discuss the importance of personal preparedness each and every hurricane season. The six month Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1.

WHAT:

2012 Atlantic hurricane season outlook press conference

WHEN:
Thurs., May 24, 11:00 a.m. ET


WHERE:
NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, 4301 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami

The press conference will also be available by teleconference. For more information, please contact christopher.vaccaro@noaa.gov.

WHO:
Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., NOAA Administrator
Timothy Manning, FEMA deputy administrator for protection and national preparedness

Also available for interviews:
Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead hurricane season forecaster, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center
Bill Read, director, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center
Robert Detrick, Ph.D., director, NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research

NOAA scientists will also be available to discuss their latest hurricane research endeavors, including the latest in modeling advancements and unmanned autonomous vehicles that may be tested during the 2012 hurricane season.


Link


One of the "unmanned autonomous vehicles"

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980. Tropicsweatherpr
11:50 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
Stays at 40%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI MAY 18 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ALETTA...LOCATED ABOUT 680 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

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979. GeorgiaStormz
11:32 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
From NWS Birmingham:

THE GFS DOESN`T DIG THE UPPER
TROUGH AS FAR SOUTH AND KEEPS THE DEVELOPING COLD CORE UPPER LOW OFF
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. BECAUSE THE TROUGH ISN`T AS
PRONOUNCED...THE FRONT GETS STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF DIGS THE TROUGH MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND
BRINGS THE MUCH DEEPER COLD CORE LOW INTO NORTHERN TENNESSEE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES AT 500MB AROUND -15 TO -16
ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA WHICH INDICATES A POSSIBLE SEVERE STORM
SETUP WITH LARGE HAIL. I`M GOING TO WAIT FOR BETTER AGREEMENT
BEFORE MENTIONING IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME. WENT AHEAD AND WENT
WITH CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.


I hope this pans out.

Also, I no longer see Alberto coming anytime soon, it just doesn't look like anything more than some Low pressure systems
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978. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:23 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
Invest 92E looks more organized and definitely a lot more consolidated. Could get 50% at the next Tropical Weather Outlook.

Otherwise, Aletta now actually appears like she's in a hostile environment. She probably attained tropical storm status last night though.

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977. LargoFl
11:17 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
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976. ncstorm
11:17 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
00z Euro brings the Low back into NC now and then NE



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975. MAweatherboy1
10:40 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
0z GFS has Carlotta impacting Mexico within a week (Bud is off the screen at that point)



It also has Alberto much later in the run...

Member Since: Φεβρουάριος 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7948
974. MAweatherboy1
10:34 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
Good morning... I think Aletta has finally given up...



92E seems to be organizing

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973. uncwhurricane85
08:41 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:


and unfortunately more to come



thats fine with me....by the time those 100 degree days that last for weeks at a time with no rain get here in june and july, we will be glad we got all this rain....the next 10 days look very wet for this area...i love it..bring on the storms!!!!
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972. HurricaneKing
06:33 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:
No one's on, but here's my blog on Aletta, 92E*, and the possible Atlantic subtropical storm.

*I've been busy so I just read the comments made to yesterday's blog after I made this one. Sorry about that. I would just like to personally thank you for pointing out that 91E is in fact 92E, MAWeatherboy. But, what was 91E? o_O


91e was less than a day and was the weak disturbance that was just west of Aletta before she formed.
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971. KoritheMan
05:19 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
No one's on, but here's my blog on Aletta, 92E*, and the possible Atlantic subtropical storm.

*I've been busy so I just read the comments made to yesterday's blog after I made this one. Sorry about that. I would just like to personally thank you for pointing out that 91E is in fact 92E, MAWeatherboy. But, what was 91E? o_O
Member Since: Μάρτιος 7, 2007 Posts: 597 Comments: 21112
970. AllStar17
04:53 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
(click to enlarge graphic)
Member Since: Ιούνιος 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
969. VAbeachhurricanes
04:38 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:
"If I were to walk into a room and see a bunch of screaming babies, and I didn't know what they were crying about, how to help them, or even communicate to them, what would I do? Well I certainly won't go up to them and introduce my self and try to help them. That would make them even more upset and unpredictable. I would wait until they are calm, happy, and willing to understand me before I introduced myself to them."

"It is probably the same reason of why we as humankind haven't been contacted by another extraterrestrial race. They don't understand us, we wouldn't understand them, and we are just crying infants on the evolutionary scale, just wanting food and our diapers changed. These aliens don't want to start anything with us until we are ready to handle it. We as a race just are not developed enough to handle such a thing. We fear that which we do not know, just as an infant would."

I just thought of that myself in a semi-conscious state as I was falling asleep, so I woke up just to share it because I felt that it was quite profound. I do my best thinking half asleep, haha!


I don't get why everyone thinks that we are so evolutionary behind any other extraterrestrial race. IT took almost a billion years of perfect evolution to get to this point, to think that we are behind all other ET's is wrong I think.
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968. wunderkidcayman
04:29 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
belize radar shows our W caribbean system with a spin although weak however as D-max soon start to kick convection is now starting to build back and you will be able to see the spin a bit better in the last half of the images in the loop and it will get better as convection builds back in when D-max is in full swing

spin is located at 17.4N 87.3W

Link
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967. WxGeekVA
04:14 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
"If I were to walk into a room and see a bunch of screaming babies, and I didn't know what they were crying about, how to help them, or even communicate to them, what would I do? Well I certainly won't go up to them and introduce my self and try to help them. That would make them even more upset and unpredictable. I would wait until they are calm, happy, and willing to understand me before I introduced myself to them."

"It is probably the same reason of why we as humankind haven't been contacted by another extraterrestrial race. They don't understand us, we wouldn't understand them, and we are just crying infants on the evolutionary scale, just wanting food and our diapers changed. These aliens don't want to start anything with us until we are ready to handle it. We as a race just are not developed enough to handle such a thing. We fear that which we do not know, just as an infant would."

I just thought of that myself in a semi-conscious state as I was falling asleep, so I woke up just to share it because I felt that it was quite profound. I do my best thinking half asleep, haha!
Member Since: Σεπτέμβριος 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
966. PedleyCA
04:13 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
Well, Time for Bed, Stay Safe, Sleep Well, Have a Good Night.
Member Since: Φεβρουάριος 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6004
965. MississippiWx
04:09 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
Certainly looks like we need to keep watching for subtropical development off the East Coast. The European was pretty gung-ho about it on the 12z run earlier today.

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964. PedleyCA
04:05 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
Sup Keep,
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963. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
03:54 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
Member Since: Ιούλιος 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
962. ProgressivePulse
03:31 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
Seems moisture and instability has returned to the basin in many areas that have been lacking the past few years. Personally I think the Hurricane/Major forecasts are low for this year. Not so much the overall numbers, who knows and who cares. I just think there will be more sweet spots this year west of 60W for a change.
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961. lobdelse81
03:29 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
Link
I still find this very amazing in 1951, especially for May
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960. aspectre
03:11 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
Invest92E has been travelling NorthWest at ~3.2mph(5.2k/h)
And its minimum pressure has dropped from 1009 to 1008millibars
For those who like to visually track 92E's path...

The southeasternmost point on the connected lines is where (NHC)ATCF initiated 92E
The northwesternmost point on the connected lines is 92E's most recent position
ZIH is Ixtapa-Zihuatanejo , ACA is Acapulco , and IZT is Ixtepec

Copy&paste zih, aca, izt, 8.8n94.6w-9.0n95.4w ,9.0n95.4w-9.3n96.1w, 9.3n96.1w-9.6n96.6w, 9.6n96.6w-10.0n97.1w, 10.0n97.1w-10.6n97.7w, 10.6n97.7w-11.0n98.3w, 11.0n98.3w-11.3n98.7w, 11.3n98.7w-11.7n99.2w, 11.7n99.2w-12.0n99.5w,12.0n99.5w-12.2n99.7w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
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959. wunderkidcayman
03:05 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
low in the gulf of honduras

Member Since: Ιούνιος 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12546
958. GeoffreyWPB
03:00 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
How sad...Donna Summer has passed away.
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957. naviguesser
02:47 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
East coast potential (Nor'Er track) in the next week:
- GFS 5/17-1800 T=111
- NOGAPS has it disappating at T=48
- Canadians 12Z shows it really starts going at T=108
- Euro-op has it as a small tight storm near Cape Cod at 120.

Seem to agree that the environment is ripe for something to pop in the next few days.
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956. xcool
02:29 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2012


...TROPICAL WAVES...
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM 16N15W TO 6N15W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OFFSHORE FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN
13W-16W...AND OVER LAND FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 11W-14W. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE WAVE WILL REMAIN WELL
DEFINED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES OVER THE ATLC
WATERS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 16N56W TO
6N58W MOVING W NEAR 15 KTS. THE WAVE LIES IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE AXIS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN
57W-61W...AND E OF THE AXIS FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 52W-59W. THE
WAVE ALSO LIES E OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PLACING UNDER THE AREA
OF MAXIMUM DIFFLUENCE. THIS COMBINATION IS HELPING ENHANCE THE
CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE. SOME OF THE WAVE ENERGY WILL LIKELY
GET DRAWN TOWARDS THE NE BY THE UPPER TROUGH AS THE TWO FEATURES
INTERACT...WHICH WILL SHORTEN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE AS IT
MOVES INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IT
MAY RE-AMPLIFY IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN AS IT INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH.
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955. TropicalAnalystwx13
02:13 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
Here's my blog entry, feel free to check it out.

Aletta holding onto life; 92E slowly organizing; Watching the Atlantic for trouble
Member Since: Ιούλιος 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32531
954. hurricanehunter27
02:07 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
Quoting Bardeyes:

I wish that was all they were talking about.  I'd like to rewind the blog about 5 or 6 years.  I miss a lot of the old time posters -- I actually learned a lot from them.
I see your the lurker type. 2007 and only 14 comments wow. But I agree with you a lot of the good bloggers have left in the past 2 years. How about you take what you learned and start making post? The blog could always use more diligent weather posters.
Member Since: Ιούλιος 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
953. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
01:58 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
Quoting Xyrus2000:


No it won't. Seals are an endangered species.

Thanks, I'll be here all week.
lol
Member Since: Ιούλιος 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
952. Xyrus2000
01:51 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its ok soon the 6th seal will be broken


No it won't. Seals are an endangered species.

Thanks, I'll be here all week.
Member Since: Οκτώβριος 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1563
951. Bardeyes
01:50 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012

Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I see no perfect storm ranting. Maybe I need to recheck lol. Models only show a possible hurricane in the Pacific and they may have dropped that all I know.

Edit: Lol now that I reread I see what you mean. I thought people where literally talking about a perfect storm.
I wish that was all they were talking about.  I'd like to rewind the blog about 5 or 6 years.  I miss a lot of the old time posters -- I actually learned a lot from them.
Member Since: Σεπτέμβριος 23, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 27
950. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
01:49 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012



Event Date Time (UT) Alt Azi
Start of partial eclipse (C1) : 2012/05/20 22:15:40.0 053° 131°
Start of annular eclipse (C2) : 2012/05/20 23:49:52.8 060.8° 169.6°
Maximum eclipse : 2012/05/20 23:52:45.9 060.9° 171°
End of annular eclipse (C3) : 2012/05/20 23:55:39.1 061° 172.3°
End of partial eclipse (C4) : 2012/05/21 01:32:41.2 056.9° 216.6°
Member Since: Ιούλιος 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
949. wunderkidcayman
01:49 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
hey guys hold on wait till D-max roll in and replenish the convection over the W caribbean low plus with shear expected to be much better on thurs morn than what it is now it should help convection to continue to build over the low
Member Since: Ιούνιος 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12546
948. TropicalAnalystwx13
01:49 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
Quoting skycycle:
How would you guys rate the chances of having Tropical Storm (or Hurricane) Bud by the end of this weekend? Any ideas on potential landfall or intensity?

I'm actually writing a blog entry about Aletta, 92E, and potential tropical/subtropical development in the Atlantic off the East Coast and in the northwest Caribbean.

I'll let you read the part about potential land effects, but the chances of getting Bud by the end of the weekend are High.
Member Since: Ιούλιος 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32531
947. Xyrus2000
01:47 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
Quoting Birthmark:

Your beliefs have no bearing on the facts.


And facts have no bearing on trolls. However, ban-hammers are quite effective. :)
Member Since: Οκτώβριος 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1563
946. hurricanehunter27
01:45 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
Quoting Bardeyes:
What's with all of the "...Folks the perfect storm in coming..." crap today? I've not browsed Dr. Masters' blog as often as I used to; is this nut ball ranting common now?
I see no perfect storm ranting. Maybe I need to recheck lol. Models only show a possible hurricane in the Pacific and they may have dropped that all I know.

Edit: Lol now that I reread I see what you mean. I thought people where literally talking about a perfect storm.
Member Since: Ιούλιος 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
945. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
01:42 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
Quoting Bardeyes:
What's with all of the "...Folks the perfect storm in coming..." crap today?  I've not browsed Dr. Masters' blog as often as I used to; is this nut ball ranting common now?
its ok its only fireworks nothing to see here
Member Since: Ιούλιος 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
943. Bardeyes
01:38 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
What's with all of the "...Folks the perfect storm in coming..." crap today?  I've not browsed Dr. Masters' blog as often as I used to; is this nut ball ranting common now?
Member Since: Σεπτέμβριος 23, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 27
942. skycycle
01:34 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
How would you guys rate the chances of having Tropical Storm (or Hurricane) Bud by the end of this weekend? Any ideas on potential landfall or intensity?
Member Since: Αύγουστος 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 207
941. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
01:31 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
Quoting trunkmonkey:


I'm not a very smart guy when it comes to and I'll use the terms Global warming, not the new fad work climate change! thank you!

I study radical muslims, and they want the USA to purchase as much oil from the Mid-east as possible, so they can use the huge vast profits from Americans to destroy us! that's right destroy us!
the muslim brothood is preaching being nice, wearing western suits, smiling at us like they are friendly towards America, but in the background they are waiting to destroy Israel, and other western states.
Global warming folks bash American oil companies, for trying to prevent America from importing oil from our enemies.
The muslim brotherhood is taking control of many Mideast Countries, and will attack Israel in a few short years.
Saudi Arabia is giving Billions of dollars financing this endeavor.
Boycotting America with oil is on the horizon and America with the government regulations and rules from the white house are adding to our demise.
American oil companies are always the bad guys in any stories regarding global warming, but never the greedy Arabs.
Arabs are stealing trillions of dollars of GDP from America, but that is never on the radar of the Global warming crowd.
Folks wake up the end is coming soon.
Israel will attack Iran some time this year.
Egypt with the Muslim Brotherhood wants to attack Israel in the near future.
They just need Yeman, and Saudi Arabia, and the Muslim Brotherhood will focus their aim to Europe, Starting with Turkey, Greece, and they will take one country at a time.
Russia, and China are developing huge militaries.
The USA is spending all of their military money on a war that cannot be won, Obama wants huge spending cuts in the Military.
NASA is almost gone, the IRS has 20,000 newly hired auditors.
America is divided, by race, economic, religion, States, much of this division started as the Democrats took majority of the house and senate.
Obama spews division every day, it's getting worse internally.
Our debt has risen over 4 Trillion dollars in the last 3 years.
Countries in Europe are going broke, collasping, American markets aren't doing much better.
If the Zimmerman trial goes in his favor, we are going to have race riots like America has never seen before.
Folks, the perfect storm is approaching,and all you people can do is call people liers!
Folks the perfect storm in coming.
W


its ok soon the 6th seal will be broken
Member Since: Ιούλιος 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
940. Patrap
01:27 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
ERUPTION AT Volcano Sakurajima

Sakura-jima

32 years to the day after the May 18, 1980 Mt. St. Helens eruption.

Member Since: Ιούλιος 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
939. ncstorm
01:26 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


i have had over 10 inches the past 3 days...east of fayetteville nc


and unfortunately more to come

Member Since: Αύγουστος 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16042
938. charlottefl
01:23 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Close enough as to where the hairs on your arms and neck stand up and it gets really hot.


SAB/TAFB came back with T2.0 so it will likely remain a tropical depression. It's a well-defined tropical depression though.

18/0000 UTC 13.3N 114.1W T2.0/2.0 ALETTA -- East Pacific


I was actually inside for mine. I was living in Tampa. I was in our kitchen putting away dishes. And the dishwasher was about 5 feet away from a sliding glass door. The flash and the boom were instantaneous, but the flash was so intense I couldn't see anything else in the room except for bright white for about 2 seconds. Definitely too close....
Member Since: Δεκέμβριος 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2687
937. Tropicsweatherpr
01:23 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Yep... Also the pressure in 92E is down a millibar to 1008 so that system seems to be slowly organizing


Is almost stationary.

EP, 92, 2012051800, , BEST, 0, 122N, 997W, 25, 1008, DB

Link
Member Since: Απρίλιος 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14574
936. Birthmark
01:19 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
Quoting PhysEng:
Sorry Dr. Masters, I find the entire argument to be false.

Your beliefs have no bearing on the facts.
Member Since: Οκτώβριος 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
935. CybrTeddy
01:17 AM GMT on Μάιος 18, 2012
Thank goodness a Space Shuttle isn't out on the pad right now (or ever again, for that matter).

I just hope it isn't like this Saturday AM for the Falcon 9 launch to the ISS.
Member Since: Ιούλιος 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24488

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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