No Zeta: Hurricane Season is over
The strong extratropical low pressure system southwest of the Azores Islands is showing no signs of tropical development today. The amount of deep convection near the low's center has decreased since yesterday, and with wind shear values of 20 knots overhead and steadily increasing, this storm has no chance to develop into Tropical Storm Zeta. The low will get absorbed into an approaching cold front on Wednesday and rapidly dissipate.
Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, wind shear levels are very high and expected to remain high for at least the next week, making tropical storm formation very unlikely. Long range models show a weak extratropical low developing near the Canary Islands late in the week, but wind shear is expected to be too strong to allow this low to develop into a tropical storm. I can now confidently predict that the end of the Hurricane Season of 2005 has arrived! Look for my next update on the tropics at the beginning of next year's hurricane season, on June 1. My blog until then will primarily focus on climate change, reviewing the Hurricane Season of 2005, and other topics of interest.
Figure 1. Map of all coastal areas subjected to hurricanes warnings (red) and tropical storm warnings (yellow) during the Hurricane Season of 2005.
Jeff Masters
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Great post as usual.:) Thanks again for all you've done this season and continue to do as well.:)
Hey everyone,
I thought I would simply add that above normal sea surface temperatures like those that helped intensify so many storms this season by itself cannot breed tropical cyclone develpment. Although it is an essential ingredient for formation, so are low upper level winds above the system.
For the most part, they need to both be present for any tropical cyclone development to truly take place. Although there will no doubt be an occasional exception to almost every rule, this is about as solid as tropcal meteorology gets at this time.
For example, the 1997 Atlantic hurricane season had all the necessary parameters such as well above normal sea surface temperatures and the current multidecadal cycle in place, yet it was the ONLY below normal hurricane season in the Atlantic during this period (since 1995). I believe it was 2000 if I'm mistaken that was the season of near normal activity. The rest of this period has been above normal while even others have seen very hyperactive seasons, historically speaking.
WHY WAS 1997 SO INACTIVE?
I will keep this very short. The upper level winds that blow acroos the entire Atlantic Basin from the west to the east in contrast to the tropical waves that form off of the coast of Africa that generally move east to west were very strong and thus precluded too much tropical cyclone formation during this one season. These hostile upper level atmospheric conditions were a direct result of the infamous El Nino phase of the ENSO cycle. During the typical El Nino phase, the warming of the waters just off Peru causes a dramatic change in the upper level atmospheric conditions that have major global impacts as well as creating very strong and hostile upper level winds that serve to decapitate the tops of any thunderstorm development that tries to solidify with a tropical wave during this type of season.
It is interesting and important to note that the following year of 1998 saw an immediate reversal of this trend as that season had well above normal tropical cyclone development as a result of the ENSO phase switching to the La Nina phase which originates as a result of a cooling of the same waters off Peru which has the opposite effect on upper level winds across the entire Atlantic Basin. In these La Nina seasons which could aso be a possibilty for the next hurricane season, it is characterized by below normal upper level wind shear which in association with the above normal sea surface temperatures favor increased tropical cyclone development.
There are a few other important atmospheric factors as well that come into play, but each of them directly affects these two vastly important components of tropical cyclone formation. This season was in what is called a neutral ENSO cycle which basically means a relatively average level of wind shear for the Atlantic Basin more or less throughout the season. Just imagine if the La Nina phase was in place for this remarkable season.
My central point is to highlight why Dr. Masters, myself and others don't expect further tropical cyclone development because the upper level wind shear is increasing and will continue to do so as we get further into a winter type atmospheric pattern. This is why we SHOULDN'T see anymore tropical cyclone development despite sea surface temperatures in some portions of the Atlantic Basin that could realistically support such development otherwise (especially in the short term).
I only mention this to give a little background information since so many seem to wonder whether this hurricane season will actually end before the next one begins. This doesn't mean that we couldn't see another tropical storm Ana development as occured in April of 2003 which became the first ever to do so in April in over 150 years of record keeping. However, such development would be more of an anamoly than something to expect. It is far more likely that there will be no further tropical cyclone development until the beginning of next hurricane season which begins on June 1, 2006.
However, I must put out this disclaimer(LOL)... if it has happened before, it can certainly happen again as Ana serves as a prime example. On the other hand, it is most unlikely at best.
Your friend,
Tony
Jason
YAY for the hoped-for alleged end of the 2005 hurricane season. May it FINALLY be over, is that TOO MUCH to hope for?
I will also keep checking in and out during the winter to see what else you have to say and see what our bloggers are up to!
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you all!
Gamma
Like a storm in january O.o
...so scary ....
And hey, the looooog season is over!!!! ding-dong, the wicked season of 2005 is dead! Break out the champagne and everyone heave a big sigh of relief and celebrate the fact that we're alive to enjoy another Christmas season with family and friends..
GOD BLESS THE U.S.A.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
and some one is going to kill me for this oops did i say a cat 5 hurricane is comeing to fl hmmm no one his on her tonight lol lol i am safe no you is going to kill me for say that lol lol lol
i do not no i this like hurricane i can not help it
and there is NO cat 5 hurricane comeing to fl
Unfortunately, it appears that we have not learned our lesson from the past 30 years' experience with the ozone-CFC debate. Once again, we find a theory that has wide support in the scientific community being attacked by a handful of skeptics, publishing outside of the peer-reviewed scientific literature, their voices greatly amplified by the public relations machines of powerful corporations and politicians sympathetic to them. And once again, some environmentalists have responded by presenting a distorted or imbalanced version of the facts, often colored by excessive emphasis on the low-probability scenarios of doom, that the popular press is only too eager to repeat, since prophesies of disaster sell. A balanced and truthful treatment of the Global Warming debate that focuses on presenting an unbiased version of our current scientific understanding is difficult to find.
In a 1984 interview in The New Yorker, Rowland concluded, "Nothing will be done about this problem until there is further evidence that a significant loss of ozone has occurred. Unfortunately, this means that if there is a disaster in the making in the stratosphere we are probably not going to avoid it." These prophetic words were proved true the very next year with the discovery of the Antarctic ozone hole. Luckily, it appears that serious damage to the planet was averted with the swift implementation of the Montreal Protocol. Let's hope that it won't take another near-disaster to motivate us to take meaningful action to address the threat of Global Warming
Skeptics have routinely called global warming "a hoax", and attacked the credibility of scientists promoting the idea. Are the skeptics right? To shed light on the issue, it is helpful to review how the same skeptics treated the ozone hole issue. Read the Weather Underground special feature, The Skeptics vs. The Ozone Hole.
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