Tropical weather analysis - June 16, 2012
With Carlotta officially gone, our attention can now turn to Invest 95E, located several hundred miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. This low briefly tried to organize several days ago, but quickly succumbed to unfavorable environmental conditions. Earlier in the day, convection was showing signs of organization, but recent satellite frames show disorganization.
Figure 1. Latest infrared satellite image of Invest 95E. Image credit: NOAA
Although this system is currently leering from easterly to northeasterly shear, this flow is forecast to become lighter as the system moves slowly northwestward. Although some of the models suggest another long-range threat to Mexico, the large-scale pattern is simply too up in arms, and I am not ready to bite off on this just yet. In fact, many of the global models bring this system to at least a minimal tropical storm in about four days. One limiting factor could be the large area of subsidence that lies to the west of the disturbance, as seen in water vapor imagery.
As a precaution, interests along the southwest coast of Mexico, as well as southern Baja, should monitor the progress of this system, which has the potential to slowly develop over the next couple of days.
Probability of development within 48 hours: 20%
Still watching for Gulf of Mexico development
I continue to carefully monitor the possibility of a tropical cyclone forming in the western Gulf of Mexico per the global models. Satellite imagery does reveal a large mass of cloudiness and thunderstorms overspreading the Bay of Campeche, Central America, and the western Caribbean at this time, so it's not as if the disturbance being carried in the models is fake. Broad cyclonic turning is noted in this area based on satellite and scatterometer data, but there is currently no focal point of organization, and westerly shear is rather strong. Although development is possible in this region, it will take some time. Indeed, many of the models don't actually develop the system until about five days, which is a reasonable expectation.
Theoretically, the synoptic pattern should be relatively straightforward, but apparently it's not. In general, the consensus still appears to be aimed at northeast Mexico or south Texas. However, glancing at the occasional wobble and eccentricities within the models, I cannot help but notice a northward turn. Dependent in part on where the system originates, a more poleward motion is not impossible. However, I am not apt to go against a consensus, and I recall similar turns being forecast for Nate and Alex. I suppose it's worth noting that, although the consensus is aimed at the aforementioned areas, every model shows some sort of trough over the central plains which would be capable of turning the system northward. Hopefully once a definite center forms, we will have a better handle on things. For now, let's just kick back, watch, and let nature do the talking.